Are You Suffering from Situational Bias? Be HONEST.

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Author of The Blackout Book and the online course Bloom Where You’re Planted

We’ve all heard of normalcy bias, a mindset in which people don’t believe that the bad things they see on the news could actually happen to them. But have you heard of situational bias? What’s more, are you perhaps guilty of it yourself?

What is situational bias?

In the context of prepping and survival, situational bias is a systemic cognitive bias that causes people to believe that their unique situation protects them from the events or disasters that may befall others. It’s similar to normalcy bias, but a little different because it’s more thought out – the person has what they feel is a valid reason for their belief, instead of simply, “It could never happen to me.”

It’s something that we in the survival world see frequently. Perhaps it’s someone on one of Selco’s articles saying, “I’m sure it was bad in the Balkans, but what he’s describing could never happen here because Americans are different” or someone reading about a riot who breathes a sigh of relief and says, “I’m glad I don’t live in the city.”

Both of these examples of cognitive biases have some strong basis in reality. The United States is different from Bosnia and Venezuela and Greece and all those other places where we’ve watched the SHTF. Our governmental systems are different, our lifestyles are different, and yes, we have guns. A riot or an episode of mob violence is more likely to take place in a metropolitan area than down a long country road.

But societal collapse doesn’t follow a list of rules

We have to remember that there are no absolutes in societal collapse.

Our government in the United States is pretty darned corrupt or at the very least, perceived as such (flashback to the most recent presidential election for a reminder), our standards of living are falling, and the current administration is doing everything possible to get guns out of our hands.

Hatred has come further and further out of city limits. During the previous election and the hullabaloo surrounding it, supporters of President Trump in rural areas had threatening letters sent to their homes, homeowners in suburbia had their American flags set on fire, and many publications have posted gleeful essays about the election outcome, deeply insulting almost half the voters in the United States. We’ve even seen people thoughtfully pondering on social media about how to “re-educate” Trump voters and libertarians.

As poverty increases (and it is) so does desperation. I wrote a while back that people are now stealing food to get by. Hatred of “others” is blatant and public. The flames of racial divides are being deliberately fanned – and some would even say, being doused in gasoline. Leading up to the Balkan War, Selco wrote that the media bombarded people with fear and hate.

Violence is becoming easier to justify.

All of these things combine to make violence easier for people to justify. We have “othered” and “been othered.” We are divide, purposely, as a means of control. After all, if we’re busy fighting among ourselves, we’re not paying as much attention to what the government is doing. And if we feel pushed into a corner, we’re going to double down on our opinions and embed ourselves even more firmly in “our side” even if what “our side” is proposing in fact goes against our ideals.

The easier it is to justify violence and vandalism, the more likely it is to happen outside of its usual settings.

There is a definite difference in the response rioters would face in downtown Portland versus downtown Smalltown someplace in “flyover” country. So-called “peaceful protesters” would be far more likely to be met with like force.

But then, in turn, the heat is cranked up even higher and the media is screaming for heads on pikes. A good point of comparison would be the difference in media coverage and law enforcement response to the event at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, versus the response to events that have been occurring in Portland, Seattle, and Minneapolis for going on two years now. The difference in those responses is…yes, again, gasoline thrown into an inferno.

The problem is, a lot of folks are still looking at this with situational bias.

We are not living in normal times, not by any stretch of the imagination. The violence, the poverty, the authoritarian abuse, and the divisiveness are far from what we’ve grown to expect living in our safe, secure, first-world societies. There’s a “mass shooting” announced every other day and they’re not just happening in big cities. There are protests galore, hatefests on social media, and a robust cancel culture that can affect you regardless of what utopian are you reside.

The internet makes a lot of things better. We can work from home, our kids can learn from home things that we might have difficulty teaching them, and we can keep in touch with the people we love while there are travel restrictions. But it also makes the world a whole lot smaller. It makes organization easier, finding out information on others simple, and a flashmob can pop up in a matter of minutes or hours, instead of days.

We write about this regularly here on The OP and every single time, in the comments, there are readers who feel they are immune. They believe themselves to be somehow untouched by all the chaos going on in our country. Maybe it’s their location, perhaps it’s their skillset, sometimes it’s because their specific neighborhood is special in some way.

This is situational bias.

These are examples of situational bias.

The unwillingness to believe the things happening in Minneapolis could ever, in any way, touch you. The resolute belief that the “others” wouldn’t dare try their shenanigans where you are. The staunch conviction that your area is somehow out of the reach of the chaos.

We all want to believe that we’ve fenced our yards, cleaned our firearms, raised our livestock, tended our gardens, live around good people, and that we are safe. We want to believe we have created our own ideal situation into which this current reality cannot intrude.

Does any of this sound familiar to you?

If you’re thinking to yourself, “Wait a minute – is Daisy writing about my comment?” well, no, I’m not writing about one comment in particular. I’m writing about all the comments of this nature, and there are many. You can see them on every single post. I was talking to a good friend about this the other night and he is the one who suggested I write about situational bias.

Yes, some of us are better prepared than others.

Yes, some of us live in areas that are less likely to erupt into violence tomorrow.

Yes, some of us have a skill set that will keep us safer from those who mean us harm.

But anyone can be outnumbered. Any area can be reached by determined groups, especially those groups which are extremely well-funded. Anyone can run into financial hard times and have to dip into our preps, therefore reducing our carefully constructed cushion.

And if you think this can’t happen to you, ever, your situational bias is blinding you.

And if you’re blinded, you’ll never see it coming. You won’t be ready. You’ll have been too complacent, too lax.

Then you will suddenly discover that while your situation may have been better than that of people living in big cities, that you, in fact, are not untouchable. Neither are your family members who work late or those who have to go into the city for a doctor’s appointment. Your friends, your neighbors – none of us are immune.

How do you reduce your situational bias?

It’s actually pretty simple to overcome situational bias. First, of course, you have to realize that you have a bias. If you don’t recognize it, you can’t overcome it.

I see this a lot where I live as I write this article. I’m house-sitting in a beautiful, oceanfront condo in a gated, walled compound with six armed guards in Mexico. I’m listening to the waves through my open windows, the birds chirping at sunset, the breeze blowing through the palm trees. Nearly everyone who lives here is American, Canadian, or European. Mexican people don’t live in this compound – they work here and it’s one of the better-paying jobs in the area.

People in this compound walk their dogs without locking their doors. We go down to the private beach and leave our phones with our towels as we splash around in the chilly Pacific. We go to the dog park or the pool or the gym and it’s all within the half-mile path surrounded by tropical flowers in our little Utopia. The worst thing that’s happened here was a couple who got into a fight and were screaming at each other in the parking lot. Within minutes, the guards escorted one-half of the couple out of the compound and that was the end of it.

So does that mean we’re safe?

Absolutely not. The safety here is a facade and I know it. I do not leave my door unlocked. I don’t walk around with my eyes on my phone. I don’t expect the 6 young men at the gate are really going to be able to protect me if a horde of angry people decided to storm it. Unfortunately, many of my neighbors believe they and their belongings are safe. They can’t imagine a breach. Very few have mapped out what to do or where to go if one occurs. Some of my neighbors haven’t given a second thought to defending themselves because they believe they’re protected by a few guys barely out of their teens.

I am by no stretch of the imagination telling you that I’m in an ideal situation. I’m willing to bear the risk for a few months to work from the beachside. I’m taking full responsibility for my decision and my safety. What I’m explaining with this description is that while it “looks” safe, I don’t delude myself into believing that couldn’t change in a split second.

You reduce your situational bias by going back to the basics, something Selco always advises when you don’t know what to do next. While your situation may be better than others (I’m safer here in this gated compound than I would be living out in the mountains of Baja by myself or in downtown Tijuana), that doesn’t mean you don’t have room for improvement. That doesn’t make you safe.

As Toby Cowern writes, “There’s always something you can do to improve your chances of a better outcome. “

Believe that it could happen to you.

You need to think like a mob, think like criminals, think like hungry people. If you were a member of one of those groups, how would you attempt to access your own home? When would you attack? Who is the weak link? No matter how prepared you are and how confident you are, there’s always a wild card (cough – COVID – cough) and that’s what means you might have to adjust your plan.

I don’t write this to be discouraging or critical. I write it because I see the same kind of cognitive bias within our own community that we accuse people outside of our community of having. Living a prepared lifestyle, knowing how to survive in multiple environments, and having ninja skills all make you a lot harder to victimize. But believing yourself impervious leaves a dangerous blind spot that is, in the end, what makes you vulnerable.

The problem with writing articles like this is that the folks who need most to absorb it are the ones who will argue most fervently.

You may not want to believe it but believing it will make you safer.

  • You are NOT invincible.
  • Your home is NOT impenetrable.
  • Your town or neighborhood is NOT impervious to mobs and riots.

I am not telling you to live in fear. I’m merely suggesting you try to overcome the illusion that your situation is invulnerable.

Because it’s not.

Not yours. Not mine. Not anyone’s. Not anywhere.

About Daisy

Daisy Luther is a coffee-swigging, globe-trotting blogger. She publishes content about current events, preparedness, and the pursuit of liberty on her website, The Organic Prepper. On her new website, The Frugalite, she shares thrifty tips and solutions to help people get a handle on their personal finances. She is widely republished across alternative media and she curates all the most important news links on her aggregate site, Daisy is the best-selling author of 5 traditionally published books and runs a small digital publishing company. You can find her on FacebookPinterest, Gab, MeWe, Parler, Instagram, and Twitter.

Picture of Daisy Luther

Daisy Luther

Daisy Luther is a coffee-swigging, globe-trotting blogger. She is the founder and publisher of three websites.  1) The Organic Prepper, which is about current events, preparedness, self-reliance, and the pursuit of liberty on her website, 2)  The Frugalite, a website with thrifty tips and solutions to help people get a handle on their personal finances without feeling deprived, and 3), an aggregate site where you can find links to all the most important news for those who wish to be prepared. She is widely republished across alternative media and  Daisy is the best-selling author of 5 traditionally published books and runs a small digital publishing company with PDF guides, printables, and courses. You can find her on FacebookPinterest, Gab, MeWe, Parler, Instagram, and Twitter.

Leave a Reply

  • Guilty!

    However, in my defense, I have had a lot of been there, done that, bought the T-shirt, warn and faded experience and or knowledge. As there are others whom post here on a regular basis do as well.

    What is happening in Minneapolis or will happen if there is a acquittal or hung jury directly (1st Order Effect) effect me (my town getting arson, looting, rioting) not likely. Possible. But not likely.

    Wide spread, across the country civil unrest and violence leading to forcing a state wide, or even a national level enacted curfew, even martial law (2nd Order Effect ) would effect me.

  • A true treatise, Daisy! Even if we live in what might be an idyllic setting, we won’t escape civil unrest in places we travel. We won’t escape rampant inflation. We won’t escape predatory taxes. We won’t escape invasive federal laws. We won’t escape people who’ve been pushed to the brink and lost all mental balance.

  • Excellent !

    Also guilty, sure we live outside of a small/sleepy town with 25 churches and one Bar. However I ran into a BLM protest on Main Street like 6-8 months ago by a bunch of Youths, so sure is anywhere safe?

    Example: The church we attend spent 40K to upgrade the doors to security ones and we have an armed Off Duty LEO outside standing guard each Sunday during worship. We both carry Mr. S&W when we go to town.

    To quote a BLM punk last night , ” It is time to get blood on our hands, voting and protests are not working”. (Brietbart)

  • Why is everybody picking on Minnecluelessapolis? What did we do to deserve this? Heck, right across the street from me is a gang of real deal badass muthafukkas with openly displayed guns, a reputation for criminal violence, and no response from the MPD. Is that a problem? OK, we’re moving out to the barrens, where gangs of meth heads in pickups drive up and down the back roads too fast. No too safe there either. Oh well, grin and bear it, and keep something special tucked in the corner in case of unwelcome visitors. What else can you do? PS the loss of civility in Mpls is a real shame; all those diverse types came there because of good, upstanding churchgoing libs that wanted to help out and give the poor, oppressed outsiders a safe place to live and raise their kids. It didn’t quite work out like we planned. I used to be one of those good people before my eyes were opened to the reality of the matter, only to find I’m now considered the terrorist. Bummer. Not going for PLOMS, but there are days when you wonder if it’s worth getting out of bed in the morning.

    • Just ran across this old comment I made last year. A week or two later the gangstas had an all out shooting war in front of my house – I was picking 9mm cases off my front lawn – so we took the hint and bailed outta town. Situation now is better but the possibility of home invasion by jacked up criminals remains. I keep in touch with the neighbors here so the likelihood of getting caught flat footed is somewhat less, and I could get assistance here before the sheriff’s 35 minute response time. But, face it, we’re never completely safe, I’ll probably meet my end slipping in the bath tub.

  • I’m thinking of my sister in Massachusetts. Sailing on her sailboat no care in the world. Trying to talk to her about preparing, a pause then, completely changing subject. I love in rural AZ,and know I face different challenges. Any disruption in truck deliveries and my town is screwed. Covid opened my eyes to this like a slap in the face. No one in town seems to realize this now that deliveries are somewhat background normal. We get our electric power from big city stations stretched over miles. Anyone anywhere can blow it anytime,and my town,along with others are screwed. Do,no,just because I live in a small town,I am well aware of vulnerability. Thanks for a good post,Daisy.

    • Sylvia,
      If your sister lives in coastal New England and still doesn’t prep to a degree, she is going around with her head firmly buried in the sand.
      Nor’easters, hurricanes, blizzards, severe thunderstorms bringing hail and the occasional tornado, coastal erosion…these are all valid reasons to prep, even if she still thinks the world is a safe, happy fun place full of loving people.

      • Thank you, MK. I love my sister and brothers very much,they’re all I got left with parents,,grandparents,aunts,uncles, all gone. But still, I can’t do much but watch and pray that she stays the heck safe and troubles pass her by. No matter how many times I asked her to move or at least have some food stocked up,she won’t listen. The most I can do is hold a room open for her here in AZ and hope she can/will get out before Boston erupts in flames after the Creuvin verdict.

  • Thanks for writing this. We left NY a couple years ago and now live in TX. I see a lot of lax and overconfident attitude here compared to friends in NY. People in TX think NY is full of alien morons and thats why it’s a dumpster fire. No its because people acted the way they are acting. A lot of people are going to get a nasty surprise very soon I’m afraid. I hear and read a lot of “that won’t happen here.”

    • Do you live in a city in Texas? Dallas Metroplex, Houston, Austin, San Antonio? If so… yes it’s possible. Those of us who do not…will face other issues…just not the riots…

    • Welcome to TX, Jenna. We native Texans, at least the ones in the country, are a pretty independent breed…to the point of considering ourselves Texans 1st and US citizens 2nd. The city Texans may be a different stripe though, as InTheBooniesTX has mentioned. I do think a lot of people could get worked up by someone trying to influence them, even here.

  • I was one of those fine folk that thought my little corner of the world was immune to violence. We moved out of the Bay Area years ago and settled onto the central coast because of the stress factor. However, July 2020, sitting at a stop light in San Luis Obispo, CA (very peaceful, “vanilla” town), suddenly people began pouring from every home/business as a mob took over the intersection on Highway 1 to protest whatever the BLM crowd was telling them to protest. 150-200 people were in the intersection before the police arrived. The violence had begun. One of the protesters shattered the back window of a vehicle about 20 cars in front of us using a pole from a burning flag. The glass shattered all over the baby boy in a car seat in the back seat of the vehicle. That was my great awakening: As long as there are people, nowhere is safe. All I can do is practice heightened situational awareness and always have a plan of escape & evasion. Whenever I enter a place, whether it’s a building or an intersection, I’m always approaching with caution and already know where the 2nd & 3rd exits are.

    Great article Miss Daisy. You’re a great writer and always have timely articles. Hugs to you…

  • I don’t stand a chance. Years of preparation has led me to believe that no matter what I do it’s not enough. I prepped and planned for years. When the other side has most of the money, well, it ain’t gonna be easy. Peace.

    • I think you might be selling yourself short. No, we can never be 100% prepared for everything but our mindset, creativity, and knowledge can really help us when we discover our shortcomings the hard way. It sounds like you’ve got lots of preps – now I would advise you to focus on adaptability. Be ready to roll with the punches and you’ll do better than most of the population.

    • “no matter what I do it’s not enough”

      you mean you’ve found that whatever you yourself alone as an individual do, it’s not enough. and no, it’s not enough. so, the next step is social structure – become part of, or build, one.

  • A very good an timely article.
    All to often we become complacent, thinking we are ” prepped” for whatever WE, expect SHTF to look like.
    However SHTF can take many forms and no one is totally prepped for all of them.
    Also you should not even try to be totally “prepped”, for each one, that would be outrageously expensive and foolish.
    The best place to start in covering all those scenarios is a good foundation of Knowledge. Survival skills and first aid, (EMT skills are better), along with some herbal medicine and wild food foraging skills. These will go a long way to “Prepping” you for any situation. This would be rough living, but it is a way to survive.
    After that you need the “tools”,(med kit, knife, gun, etc.) to use the above knowledge.
    Then Comfort “tools”( a tent, a sleeping bag, a portable toilet, etc), they are not absolute necessities, but very nice to have.
    Just because you stockpile food and live off grid, in a remote area, far from a city, it does not mean that a wild fire or some disaster post SHTF, will not destroy it all. So be prepared for the worst, Having almost nothing to work with but just your survival knowledge and you will be prepared for almost anything.

    • Weather…that is my tough one that has been on my mind. Tornadoes. We had a special weather bulletin 5 minutes before some nasty weather. So I think a weather station and NWS radio is in my future.

      • -InTheBooniesTX,
        I have family living in hurricane ally.
        I have often wondered post-SHTF, the grid down, the weather service not operating (nor Accuweather and other weather services), how would we know of any potential dangerous weather? We take it for granted we have forecasts, satellites, giving us even days notice of some weather events.
        A barometer could be handy. But how many people have a analog barometer mounted on their wall?

        • “how would we know of any potential dangerous weather?”

          unless you live on one side of a mountain range or in a forest or you spend most of your time indoors, isn’t most dangerous weather readily visible as it approaches?

          • Have you ever been through a hurricane?
            Take away our modern weather forecasting capabilities, how are you going to know the difference between a regular storm and a cat5 hurricane?
            Galveston hurricane of 1900.
            Miami hurricane of 1926.
            Okeechobee hurricane of 1928 to name a few of the most deadly in US history by lives lost.

            What about the recent arctic blast that hit Texas? How would they know it was coming, by what? Opening the window?

            How do I know if that is just winter flurries and not the beginning of a blizzard? Or a single digit or negative digit cold snap? Unless they talk to us, and I make it a point of mentioning the upcoming weather when I do talk to them, they have no idea.

            • 10-4, understood. well then the answer to “how would we know” is “you won’t”. in a grid-down isolated community probably the only effective approach is just anticipate the worst. it’s inefficient and costly, but that’ll have to be weighed against the occasional severe event.

              as for the texas deep freeze, that had two facets. one, it was highly unusual everyone’s individual infrastructure wasn’t built or stocked for it. two, the shared infrastructure that everyone depended upon wasn’t built for it, and failed, leaving most with nothing. in a long-term grid down scenario most people will be on their own personal infrastructure (i.e. fireplaces and firewood) with some extra stocks and thus will not be suddenly cut off from shared infrastructure, so a deep freeze while difficult will not be catastrophic.

  • Crap happens. No plan survives first contact. Rules to live by. Certain things are always going to happen…some more likely then others based on where you live. Some apply to all (supply chain, inflation, job loss, etc.) you can’t ever say something is not going to happen…it just might be a different trial. Bias is either pride, arrogance, ignorance, or just naïveté. All of which will get you hurt.

    • There is a Shiva statue showing the diety dancing on the prostrate body of a human dwarf.( long story). I like to say it represents our position in the universe. We do our best anyhow, and hope it works out.

  • As PJF says, the two big issues in SHTF are 1) starvation and 2) people acting badly. Prepare for those and you’ll be ahead of the pack. The rest will make itself apparent when the time comes.

    • …the two big issues in SHTF are 1) starvation and 2) people acting badly…

      Then the proper response should be:

      1) Security
      2) Refer to #1

      Everything else comes after.
      If you can’t protect it or hold on to it, then you didn’t plan well enough.

  • Daisy you’re spot on right, and I’ll freely admit, that I’ve been guilty of allowing Situational Bias to influence my props and plans. It’s something I’ve been working on, and something I’ll always have to work on.
    For me, recognizing the reality of my situation was the key to recognizing my situational bias. There are simply too many things that are physically not a viable option anymore. I cannot walk very far, before the pain becomes too great to do more than shuffle along. How am I going to walk 60 miles, when I’m unable to walk 1 mile? Accepting reality made me realize that I’d spent a considerable amount of time and finances prepping for an activity I’m incapable of performing. Hip replacements would help, but I’m reluctant because the last surgery I underwent was ineffective and it took a long time to stabilize my heart during and after the surgery.
    I appreciate this article, because I need to go through everything and apply the concepts you’ve addressed.
    Thank you.

  • I got a big wake-up call after 911 when my Manager and I were tasked to write up a response to a terrorist attack on our utility. We sat for a couple of hours with blank faces as we realized how daunting it is to think like a terrorist never having been exposed to such ideology/violence. We finally accepted our limitations and started trying to “think outside the box”. After several months, trial runs and fine tuning, we felt that we had a fair SOP in the event of attack.

    We have tried to adopt the same process to protecting our home. We have booby traps ready to put in place and loaded weapons in every room. Luckily, we have few natural disasters to prep for so we can focus on our response to attack by an angry mob. We also are very aware that one cannot possibly prep for every contingency as that would be impossible.

    I continue to order supplies as my research is ongoing and I find blank spots.

    I have adopted the “grey man” mantra with both hands and have been very diligent about being situationally aware.

    All this said, I KNOW we are still vulnerable to an attack that may be unforeseen. But I still sleep better knowing that I continue to learn and adapt as a weakness is exposed.

  • I definitely have a higher level of anxiety as each day comes. I work in an urban core of a city and commute over 125 miles. The media has created such hate and there are so many who believe them that it makes me very nervous to drive and work now. At home, I feel only a little better but I still live within walking distance of a large city and interstate.
    This is hard no matter what.

  • I guess I’m somewhat guilty? I live on some acreage and so do my neighbors. Defending our area would be WAY easier than in the suburbs or city but I work in the city. It’s an hour commute and I try to always be prepared to walk 40 miles home and actually sneak 40 miles home, off the main road which means 50-60 miles. I think my weak spot is a quick run into our small town to shop or whatever. Things happen when we least expect it. After all if I expected it I would be home right? I hope this is helpful.

  • No one can prepare for all scenarios. We just prepare as we sense the Lord leading us and trust Him with our lives. For those who know Him it is a win-win because if we live, we can work to help others but if we die we are with Christ. I pray more will come to believe Him and follow Him, not try to clean themselves up first, but just trust Him and let Him do the work in them. Nothing like resting in the Lord even through trials (everyone has them), yet having peace each day regardless of what happens.

  • If we have one of those 90% die situations, I don’t care how many preps and skills you have. You are going to have to not make one single mistake or be really, really lucky to survive. Another thing, growing food and critters is a must have skill, but if at any point in time a whole lot of desperately hungry people are around you, you will lose your garden and every single critter. You’ll already have seeds for next year, so you can grow another garden, but you can’t grow more critters if you lose every one of them. Better hope food critters don’t go extinct! Also, you better hope the folks attacking you don’t have mortar bombs to drop on your head or tanks. Got a concrete bunker? Preps and skills will help, but your also going to need luck or a guardian angle to survive.

    • “Also, you better hope the folks attacking you don’t have mortar bombs to drop on your head or tanks”

      great consideration. grid down, what weapons will be available and in the field?

      • How many people know how to assemble and operate a mortar system, be effective with it and hit what they intend to?
        Just transporting the main components, it takes 3 Marines to move the weapon system, not including ammo.

        If the grid is down, where do you get the gas to fuel the tank? And dont try to cross a bridge with one. There are not many bridges in the US that can accommodate that much weight. IIRC, Austin Texas PD got a MRAP. If they wanted to go from one side of town to the other, they had to take a specific route as only one bridge could take the weight of the MRAP. MRAPs weight a lot less than a M1A1 tank.

        • How many people know how to assemble and operate a mortar system, be effective with it and hit what they intend to?”

          (grin) some do. and they’re around. betcha that there’s a few small teams already prepped and ready to go. and being high value assets they’ll be in demand to operate in “high value” areas ….

          “it takes 3 Marines to move the weapon system”

          you mean three guys. and 60mm is 1) quite transportable and 2) will be unanswerable by most prepper groups. 41 guys with rifles is one thing – 28 guys with rifles and 13 with three 60mm mortars is quite another matter altogether.

          “they had to take a specific route as only one bridge could take the weight of the MRAP”

          the real issue will be fuel, and likely most of that will be expended in the decline.

          other than some mortars (which will be decisive where they appear) imo the dominant weapon of the apocalypse will be the long-range rifle, manned primarily by borderline sociopaths who have 100,000 cartridges of ammo and dream of the day they can just open fire on all the “evil” in the world. yeah, sounds obvious, but I don’t think anyone really grasps what it will mean to have the landscape dominated by scoped weapons able to reach out half a mile or more and kill anonymously, manned by people who set out to kill anonymously, anytime, anywhere. out in the field plowing, no-one else in sight, whack. out on the road, no-one else around, whack. out cutting wood, no-one else around, whack. the only situation like this that the world has ever seen before is the black plague – in the morning a guy is walking around just fine, and in the afternoon he’s sick, and in the evening he’s dead – only this will be sudden and out of the blue and go on for many years.

          • That sounds like some serious Rambowannabe stuff right there.

            Ever shoot a rifle at long range (Call to Duty does not count)?

              • Have they expressed and or suggested the desire to engage in such actions?

                If so, what is the Red Flag laws in your state?

                • “Have they expressed and or suggested the desire to engage in such actions?”

                  not to me.

                • You seem to have a lot of interesting insight to those kind of people or those who have stolen military grade hardware and are ready and willing to use it outside of sanctioned US military action.

                  Some federal agencies might find your knowledge of such groups . . . interesting.

                • “You seem to have a lot of interesting insight to those kind of people”

                  just what they themselves post on the boards for anyone to read.

                  “those who have stolen military grade hardware”

                  ? dude. this is the internet age, it’s for sale on the net.


                  and you can get training too, in style.


                  “Some federal agencies might find your knowledge of such groups . . . interesting”

                  I’m sure they already have more data than they can act on.

                  anyway, like I said, long-range rifles (presently plentiful and popular) and the semi-sociopaths behind them (as they themselves advertise on all the prepper/survivalist/I-hate-the-world boards) will make the post-apocalypse landscape close to uninhabitable.

                • I was talking about the 60mm mortars that you referenced as,
                  ” betcha that there’s a few small teams already prepped and ready to go. and being high value assets they’ll be in demand to operate in “high value” areas ….”

  • Being from the upper mid-west region – I have got to say i was SHOCKED when BLM decended on Fargo, ND. Twice! Last year and this year.
    Fargo is a city -( ND standards)> population is something like 150,000.
    Last year when BLM(/antifa?) Rioted in Fargo it was the first riot in the history of the city!!!
    If there was anywhere people probably thought “it hasn’t happened in the last 150 years so it can’t happen here” it was probably Fargo, ND.

    It was quickly squelched last year..
    but then 2021 – (the lame squeal to 2020) arrived. And this year BLM went to Fargo for literally no reason PRIOR to the incident in minneapolise with ploice killing wright. My best guess is that some righty trolled BLM/Antifa about some White lives matter thing – so hundereds of them decended on Fargo (and a bunch of other cities) to counter-protest; but obviously there was no white lives matter protest in Fargo or really anywhere else.

    All I’m saying is if it can happen in Fargo ND no where is too remote or too boring of a city.

    And I might be way off base- but it really smells like this is just the beginning. I think this is going to continue for a long while and it’s going to get worse before better. Nothing is ending all of it. Why would it stop.

    • I live not too far from Fargo and have lived in some big cities over the years, I agree with the “it can’t happen here attitude”.

      I was talking with some friends, immigrants from Africa and the Caribbean in February last year. Both said they had not experience racism from white people in the area, they had always been treated well and as just another person. They said that the racism they experienced was from other black people – either those from another country originally or those born here.

      One said that a young black woman of college age actually told him he wasn’t African-American. He’s an American citizen and was born in an African country.

      Both of these black immigrants where shocked at the attitude of American born black people, and commented that they had no idea what true racism is and are much more racist than the people they are accusing of racism.

      Fargo and Moorhead will burn just as the Twin Cities will, it will happen as well. I’m glad I live outside of both “cities” and have an exit plan.

  • I agree in principle: No matter how prepared you think you are, you must try to anticipate scenarios that you believe “can’t happen here.” But isn’t that why so many preppers seek isolated, hidden locations, and have caches of food, water and weapons hidden in other sites?

    BTW, the FIRST place hungry mobs will assault will be the rich, gated communities–because they show by their display of wealth that they have what the mobs need. I read about a man who was acquainted with a very rich man in a South American country. When his country was overthrown and people were starving, the rich man urged his acquaintance to take shelter with him, behind tall, well-guarded walls. Instead his acquaintance went with a friend who lived in a hovel in a poor neighborhood that no one would think had anything worth stealing. The mobs headed to the rich man’s compound and eventually overran it, killed the rich man and got his well-protected supplies, while the poor native was left alone by the mob. He had food, water, guns and ammo, just like the rich man, but he survived because he didn’t LOOK rich. That low profile is how you will survive. You must blend in!

  • Dear Daisy,

    Thank you…You’re absolutely correct! …”Believe that it could happen to you”.

    One of my favorite phrases of advice that my late father would say is: “never say never, never say always & never assume”

    I have your article from January 2016 bookmarked…it’s worth a reread for everyone…great advice!

    “8 ways to empower yourself”

    Thanks a 1,000 times & take care,


  • I keep thinking of Daisy Luther is living down in Mexico waiting for the Apocalypse/ Sky Dark like Sarah Conner. I hope she is gathering her cache of weapons to survive the future like Sarah. The saying “Plan for the worst, Hope for the best ” is what we should live by. You should always be making plans for emergencies and modifying when appropriate. The P.A.C.E. Plan is a good one to apply to different contingencies. Primary, Alternate, Contingency, Emergency. It goes for for food, defense, finances, transportation and communication. I learned long ago not to have Situational Bias when it came to self defense. I always carry outside of home a handgun when away. A life or death situation can happen in a big town or small town. In this day and age we should be preparing for grid collapse from hack attack or an EMP. Also the potential of a Nuclear attack. Splitting up your supply storage so it is not all lost to fire , theft or flood also is good idea.

  • We handle things differently and that’s why it’s not as big a worry. There are also priorities in what’s really GOING to happen vs what MIGHT happen. We aren’t ignoring it and aren’t guilty of anything except realism.

    I might not take the grandson for swimming lessons into the city if a group is acting up but I’m more likely not to go because we are in extreme danger of a tornado outbreak and bring in a glass fronted store with zero underground cover except the swimming pool is less than ideal.

    Going to happen vs might happen

    • “Going to happen vs might happen”

      do you have any method for recognizing transitions from “might” to “will”? or will you “just know” when it happens?

  • Yes good article: There are 5 things you should never do and one always
    1) Never think you know it all
    2) Never allow yourself to be disarmed physically of spiritually
    3) Never get on the bus, its not going anywhere you want to go
    4) Never stop improving your situation
    5) Never quit
    Always seek His face, hear His voice, and obey His will.

    • “Never allow yourself to be disarmed physically of spiritually”

      what is “disarmed spiritually”?

      “hear His voice”

      dunno … my experience has been that if you start listening for voices, you start hearing them.

      • Why so flippant? Sometimes you have some good comments; other times you talk like a gadfly. This is one of those times.

        If you don’t believe that God speaks to those who are listening, then you don’t have to ask about what spiritually disarmed means, because you’re already there.

  • I recognize that I’m guilty of Situational Bias.
    I live in the Free- State of Florida in a Red County with a very strong 2A Sheriff.
    Now will the $hitstorm after the Chauvin acquittal hit my area? Not likely. Will it hit craphole places in Florida like Miami/Tampa/Orlando? Very possible.

    I am a prepper, but I realize that I am not 100% fully prepped. Nobody is really 100% prepared.
    I can always need more “stuff”, learn a new skill,etc.

    Currently my little Mom & Pop Shop is doing good but having been in business for 20+ years I know a slow down can happen at any moment for any reason.

  • “It’s something that we in the survival world see frequently”

    oh beat me with a stick, for ten years when I”VE written about this people say I’m just “consumed with craven fear!” and “you’re a government agent!” and “you satanic parasite!” but somebody else says it and it’s “excellent!” and “guilty!” and “great article!”

    well at least y’all are listening to SOMEbody. good job daisy.

    • When Daisy does it, she sounds articulate, intelligent, and insightful.

      When you say it, you sound naive, and like a 11 year old who plays too many video games.

      • “when you say it”

        so what you’re saying is that you listen, not to facts, but to approved personalities. dunno man, that doesn’t sound like a survival trait.

  • Great article. Also, in Latin America, those young guards could easily be members of a gang, or be bribed by one, and look the other way (“hacer la vista gorda”) as criminals enter the compound. You are wise to not trust much.

  • I don’t have situational bias. While I live in in what could be called a “safe island”, it will not always be safe. One day I may have to either surrender it or fight for it. But while we are discussing biases, maybe we should also discuss myopic perceptions. Are any of you keeping up with what is transpiring in the Ukraine? Something really bad is about to happen there and hardly anyone I talk to have a clue that soon circumstances could spin out of control and we will find ourselves in a hot WWIII. We have an idiot in charge and lots of other idiots egging him on to take on Russia. Troops and war materials are on the move.

    • “other idiots egging him on to take on Russia”

      they’re not idiots, they know exactly what they’re doing. they hate russia with a tribal genocidal passion and mean to destroy it by any means available, and right now what they have available is our military.

      • “They know exactly what they’re doing..” Crush Russia, decapitate Putin and all that lovely oil and nat gas goes straight over to EU. Oops, script didn’t play out quite the way they planned. The Greeks talked about hubris being the sin of clever fools, a couple thousand years later they’re as right as ever.

  • Where I live I’m quite sure riots won’t happen here for 1 main reason.
    We have a military base that will be called out. It would look like a kicked over ant hill
    There are around 60 thousand soldiers on that base. Most are battle harden. Years of war have trained them well.
    We have a very large veterans population as well. Many who don’t talk much about what would need to be done but have no dought they will answer the call.
    Most of our citizens are well armed .
    Having said that I do understand nothing is guaranteed & we prepare as best as we can.
    We practice the gray man.. get stuff ready just in case.
    We pray for our country & all its people.
    We are so grateful for those who
    Are willing to teach us & share their wisdom.
    Thank you all for what you do.

  • We live outside the Greater Kansas City Metro Area, in a very conservative area. Two weeks ago I would have said it wasn’t here YET. Then some black gang members from KCMO came out here and killed a teenager. So, I think that’s probably just the beginning. Now we need to consider how our routines need to change with this knowledge. Where we shop, how far we drive to shop, getting to work (currently working from home, but that could change), anything that happens outside the home.

    Also, be sure you’re paying attention to the local news in your community. Watch the crime rates, especially petty crime.

  • That was a great article Daisy and very timely. I always thought that “these things” could never happen here. Since watching what is happening in Australia, Canada, Europe, and yes here in Portland, San Francisco, and Chicago, I am convinced that anything can happen where I am ( a small, quiet town in Northern CA). Reading Selco in the past few weeks has opened my eyes to just how savage people can get. Im getting ready more and more every day. The Organic Prepper has, by far, the most useful and practical information than any other prepper site I’ve seen

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