SELCO: Do Not Hold Your Breath for a Quick Resolution of This Crisis

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Author of The Dark Secrets of SHTF Survival and the SHTF Survival Bootcamp online course

In the spirit of our survival philosophies, I think something is pretty clear by now. This situation going to last, and probably it will be worse before it gets better.

You might be wondering why most of the people are still kind of in shock. Or if not shock, then why they are still in a state where they simply consciously or subconsciously refuse to accept the new reality.

It is because we are conditioned for years to operate in a completely different way.

“Go Go Go” Syndrome

There is something that for lack of better words I call “go go go” syndrome.

What is it?

Well, it is our collective state of mind where we all believe(d) that things in SHTF situations would be resolved in a quick and efficient way.

And emphasis is usually on “quick.”

So, if you are watching survival movies most actors there will be in hurry, or they constantly run, because there is some deadline or some huge danger that will crush them at “that exact moment” so they have to be quick.

Or it is simply a matter of a quick extraction from the danger, again the emphasis is on the word “quick.”

You know that all you have to do in order to achieve success is have a guy who will yell in a crucial and decisive moment, “GO GO GO!”

We are conditioned for years in survivalism that our best and worst moments in the SHTF will come with a big neon sign telling us “this is it” and all we have to do is to push very hard and fast (GO GO GO) and to bug out, bug in, shoot the bad guy, find a fallen tree in order to cross the river, or simply use a tourniquet to save someone…and everything else will be solved on its own. Your bug-out location will be like a walled paradise, a medic helicopter will lift the injured guy, and you’ll end up as a local hero because you shot the bad guy.

Then there’s reality.

In reality, you do not have to cross the river. You’ll have to live next to the polluted river for a year or two and drink water from it because the running water is gone. You will not save the guy with a tourniquet – he will die 2 weeks later from an infection because nobody came to pick him up and you are his highest medical help. AND you’ll not end up as a local hero because you lost your rifle a year ago because you bragged about how many weapons you had on Facebook.

I hope all the examples above you will understand in a proper way, as simply examples. No, I do not think you are an idiot. I just think most of us are conditioned for years in the wrong way. Well, not so much on the wrong way. It is more like in a way that will not work one day.

Do not hold your breath for a quick resolution.

This general deterioration in many fields of everyday life will last for some time, so do not hold your breath waiting for a quick resolution.

It is also important not to sit and wait for resolution because if you do so in times like these, you will usually fail to notice something important, and then you’ll make mistakes.

The general deterioration that we are witnessing is a slow process, and it will continue to be slow unless some major event happens which most probably will abruptly lead us to a full-blown SHTF event. We will face a situation which is gonna look much worse then all this.

My bet (if that event happens) is that the situation will evolve from a sharp deterioration of rights and freedoms.

What you can do right now is to go slowly and carefully, and to think about two things: small victories and shrinking.

Small victories

Surprisingly for someone, but it is not the time for big decisions, big victories, big actions. All that means more risk, and now it is not time for risk.

It is time for small victories, so maybe you should stick to good old prepping – the basics.

What I mean by this is…

You cannot do too much (most probably) about the state of freedom of speech, media propaganda, your rights, etc, unless you want to be labeled as a trouble maker. You need to focus on some small victories like investing your time in prepping, canning, resupplying, organizing your preps, and similar.

I know you may be thinking, ” I need to go and count my cans while we are being stripped of our most important rights!?!”

Well what else you could do at this moment?

There will be a time for other things. Now it is not the time to draw attention.

Shrinking

In the war, when we were unable to defend our house with many rooms, we would “cut off” (barricade, booby trap…) rooms that we were unable to defend because of lack of manpower, or simply because of its position, etc.

We “shrunk” the situation.

I “shrunk” the situation many times later, in war and peacetime, and every time I lost something in order to save something bigger, or simply to save the whole picture.

This is the time for shrinking.

For years before, a lot of us lived like “the world is never going to end.”

Well, guess what? The world as we know it kinda ended.
The whole world is economically suffering. Don’t you think it is time for you to shrink a bit? In order to live to fight another day?

It is painful but, yes, this is the perfect time to think about what is actually necessary for you to do now. Think and act now so you can save the “larger picture” for tomorrow.

About Selco:

Selco survived the Balkan war of the 90s in a city under siege, without electricity, running water, or food distribution. 

In his online works, he gives an inside view of the reality of survival under the harshest conditions. He reviews what works and what doesn’t, tells you the hard lessons he learned, and shares how he prepares today. He never stopped learning about survival and preparedness since the war. Regardless of what happens, chances are you will never experience extreme situations as Selco did. But you have the chance to learn from him and how he faced death for months.

Real survival is not romantic or idealistic. It is brutal, hard and unfair. Let Selco take you into that world.

SELCO: Do Not Hold Your Breath for a Quick Resolution of This Crisis
Selco

Selco

Selco survived the Balkan war of the 90s in a city under siege, without electricity, running water, or food distribution. In his online works, he gives an inside view of the reality of survival under the harshest conditions. He reviews what works and what doesn’t, tells you the hard lessons he learned, and shares how he prepares today. He never stopped learning about survival and preparedness since the war. Regardless what happens, chances are you will never experience extreme situations as Selco did. But you have the chance to learn from him and how he faced death for months. Read more of Selco's articles here. Buy his PDF books here. Take advantage of a deep and profound insight into his knowledge by signing up for his unrivaled online course. Real survival is not romantic or idealistic. It is brutal, hard and unfair. Let Selco take you into that world.

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  • Kudos! I concur.

    Speaking in terms of seasons, I’d say we are in early thaw of spring.

    As long as people have time to talk about everything that is wrong or right depending on point of view, there is time to exercise prudent, productive, practiced prepping.

    Personally, we liquidated our production flock from 205 ewes to our 30 best girls. Why? Threefold answer.

    1. If newer lockdowns come, I doubt the packers will be operating to max efficiency, therefore the buyers would not be showing up at the sale barns and prices (despite high demand) would be depressed. So, more is not better as we saw it.

    2. We wanted the capital to harden our property and preps and add on an farm processing facility.

    3. We live in an aging community. I know I will be helping a lot of my neighbors and family when the “spring” skips to “winter”

    Thanks for your no nonsense writing.

  • Selco is correct.
    I am taking advantage of the interlude, as i call it. Getting winter clothes and supplies for creative projects for months/years to come. Going to yard sales. Even holding my nose and going to Walmart, using my LINK card. Anything.
    If a stimulus comes monthly, I will milk it for all it is worth.
    If someone tells me we are returning to normal, they are in shock, confused and/or have cognitive dissonance. I remind these people there’s no way the old normal will return if all these places have gone out of business. They are gone forever.
    My blood relatives all drank the kool-aid and they’re a lost cause. I am not surprised they haven’t even hinted at having lunch with me since early 2020. Bigger fish to fry.
    Tempus fugit.
    Tempus fugit.

  • As always, there’s much wisdom in the writings of a man who’s actually done that and been there. At this point, writing our legislators is meaningless. They don’t care what we think and getting on a list of troublemakers isn’t useful. Since the rules are what those in power say the rules are, I don’t feel as though activism at this point is going to change anything anyway. Those in power have an agenda and that’s what’s going to happen.

    I’ve largely left social media and have been working on deleting old posts that deal with politics of any kind. Yes those old posts can still be retrieved by those with the proper skills and/or permissions but at least I’ve cut out the suckers. Besides, I’ve read that there are major military psyops being conducted on social media. Between those two reasons and just keeping my head down, I’m out of there. Never put anything out on the internet that we don’t want to see at our trial.

    I believe that other people are going to be the biggest problem as it sets in that things aren’t going back to “normal.” We’re already being set against one another, and this has been happening for quite some time. The Othering is getting much stronger and that’s never a good sign. So for me, OPSEC is even more important than ever. My neighbors are well aware of my veggie garden but they’re afraid of my guns. That latter will change when they’re hungry enough.

    The system is already breaking down. It isn’t going to get better and those in power will do all they can to stay in power. The times they are a’changin. Let’s be careful out there!

  • Selco:

    Thanks for the reality check. It may not be what people want to hear, but what we NEEDED to hear.

    This IS the teotwawki situation we’ve been working towards surviving. Incrementally getting worse, with every day it getting just a tiny bit more difficult to do what we used to do. Three years ago, if you wanted to get a cup of coffee, all you had to do was get in line, place your order and hope that the barista got it correct. (We long since gave up on our name being spelled correctly on the side of the cup.)
    Now, in many locations, you need to place your order over the phone, wear a facemask to even get in the long line, have your covid passport, and hope that they still have cups, coffee, etc to fill your order in the first place.
    This is just one example. No, shtf is here. Adapt or get left behind.

    • Gee, I just boil some filtered water from the rain barrel, take some coffee from the stockpile in the celler, brew it, and pour it into re-usable ceramic mugs without the need to expose my comms to intercept or to expose myself to danger in the streets. I might need to do an extraction and filtering system to prevent unwelcome passers by from waking up from their addled stupor and smelling my coffee.

      Just trying to lighten the mood a little 😉

  • “Now it is not the time to draw attention.” Difficult for those who long to be honest about the beliefs they hold, to be warriors for freedom, but Selco, you are 100% correct.
    A small agency I am involved with is trying to force vaccination on the one employee who was honest and said she did not have it, and would not get it. It was an hours long battle, but I managed to get those in charge to compromise–for now. I privately told this employee that while I admired her forthrightness, if she trusted that I knew what I was doing and would try to continue support her, she had to become quiet, seemingly thankful for their postponement and attempt to find a reason for an exemption. It drives me crazy to have to counsel that!! But if anyone had heard the things those in charge were saying about “the unvaccinated” they would not have believed it. People I have known for years to be community minded, fair and generous were speaking of an entire half of our population, who for many different reasons do not have the vaccine, as though they were an opposing army!
    THIS IS NOT ABOUT THE VACCINE.
    This is about people turning on one another….I believe–although I am still in shock–that any one of those I fought with would turn in a neighbor without a second thought.

    • @ Lars
      Remember the scene in The Sound of Music when the Von Trappe family is hiding from the Nazis and the former boyfriend Rolfe of teenage Liesl discloses their presence to his fellow Nazis? I remember being totally horrified by this when I saw this movie as a kid. But now, yeah, totally get it. People turned their neighbors, friends and colleagues in to the Nazis. No doubt that would happen today, with many of the vaxed turning in the unvaxed. Nothing has changed. I can think of one former good friend who would gleefully turn me in!

    • The reality that we all have to face is that, if things do get worse (and I think most of us in the prepper community believe things are likely to get worse, even if we may disagree which worse way they are heading), at some point we will be facing real conflicts. By this I mean people fighting, not about differences of opinion that may be papered over with diplomacy, but for their lives with each other. People fighting because “if you do this, you’ll kill me/my family”, and this belief being essentially correct, not a misunderstanding. People trying to live as before, fighting to live as before, and finding the hard way it’s no longer possible.

      Take this whole vaccine situation as the rehearsal. Today you could paper it over. What will you do when the situation is different, and it can’t be papered over? What will you do when it really is life-or-death? More importantly, what will you do if you realise you are in the wrong side? By this I don’t mean on the wrong side morally, but on the wrong side for survival given the actual situation. Many Jews in Nazi Germany were on the right side morally, and still died horrible deaths after months in a concentration camp.

      Now is a good time to start thinking about that question.

      • Excellent comment! Perople are ignorant and/or in denial. Just look at Wall St, people buying house now, with a 30 year mortgage.

        • Possession is nine-tenths of the law. If you think we’re going into systematic failure, why not leverage to the hilt and buy that house, knowing you can stop paying the mortgage and not get thrown out as the economy continues to implode? Buy one with enough open land to have a nice vegetable garden.

          The eviction moratorium is being deliberately dragged out to drive the nation’s small landlords into bankruptcy and into making forced sales to the nation’s new behemoth institutional landlords. They’re already buying as much of the single-family housing stock as they can as soon as it hits the market, often outbidding individual families by as much as 50% over their offers.

          If you buy a house now, and TS really HTF, it will be a few years before the political commisariat either reassign you to “new” lesser digs back in town, or insist on moving other families in with yours, so enjoy it while you have it.

  • Whoa! Whoa! Whoa!
    You mean to tell me I joined the Marines, became a rifleman, an Expert Marksman and refined my technique shooting NRA High Power rifle, became a EMT/Wilderness EMT, fire fighter, never had Fakebook so I still have my rifle, bought a piece of property with independent well, all so that I dont save the guy, shoot the bad guy and be the town hero?
    I am so bummed right now . . . I am kidding. Things seem to be a bit heavy right now, thought some levity might be in order.

    Anyways, right about small victories. Could be anything from weeding the garden, installing more shelving for even more preps, learning something new, canning, making jam etc.
    Cannot do much about the double mask mandate in Philly, or vaccine mandate in San Fran, but I can plant some more beets.
    Just read about China shutting down their largest container terminal, over 1 dock worker testing positive for COVID. I cannot do much about that, but I can try to anticipate supply disruptions. Same goes with a recent report of plunging crop supplies that could lead to even more food inflation than what we are already seeing.
    Small victories where you can win them.

    Daisy had an article awhile back about the “New Normal” and that may be the way of it for the foreseeable future. Like to think we could get back to pre-COVID normal, but I am sure as heckfire not betting on it.
    It may get worse before it gets better.
    Or at all.

    • 1stMarineJarHead, you and Selco forgot the part about walking off into the sunset with the girl/guy of your dreams. 🙂

    • Absolutely! I have been downsizing for a while now. Takes longer than you think. I also sorta have a plan for when the boat starts to sink, which items that I do have, go thrown overboard first. I have redundancy in power for example. I have only
      1,20w of solar but that can charge my 7000w (net) of battery storage. I have a couple of <100w panels for radios, small electronic devices, radios and small battery charging. These can easily be taken with me if I had to leave other items behind or help my family. My battery storage ranges from 1,500 Bluetti, to two DIY battery system. 2400w and 4800w. Can run fans and freezer and fridge for a fairly long time in Southern Kalifornia sun.

  • The current situation is like a frog being boiled alive. Because the heat is turned up gradually, frog hardly notices. My family often talks about “trigger points”. What would trigger our next level of action? What would that action be? It’s tough to define those boundaries, especially with adult children who have their own opinions! We couldn’t have predicted several years ago what’s happened in the last year and a half, and we certainly wouldn’t have predicted that the whole world would play along. Selco’s right–do what we know to do and consider what could happen.

    • I AM NOT A PREPPER. Never was, never will be.

      “Prepper” means you’re getting ready for something bad. Well every day has some good and some bad in it. Some days have more of one than the other.

      I AM A TRUE BELIEVER. And I make every moment an act of worship. What else can ya do?

  • I think a lot of us need to read and reread this article and then look very carefully at our preps and goals( long term survival plans) and see how they fit with this.
    To many times I see people making plans that are short term based at best, yet they consider them as long term solutions to SHTF.
    Such as using solar power, the components of which if it all goes to its maximum, dependable life is only about 5 yrs. Even before then, one can expect diminishing performance of batteries and other components with constant usage. Most of us are not qualified to make repairs to such a system either.

    The one trigger, that I see that will bring an immediate SHTF is an economic collapse. There are many potential causes of an economic collapse, but the outcome is the same.
    We in most of the developed countries have a extensive system of social support payments, from Social security to Welfare. Once those payments are not longer adequate for living (like in extreme hyper inflation) or the government no longer chooses to pay for such programs, then SHTF will come quickly.
    Until then; plan, review the plan, revise it and perfect it, as well as adding to your knowledge and skillset. Don’t stop, thinking that you have done enough. There is always more to learn and do.

  • Once again I am the lone negative on Selco.

    I find that he seems to talk down to his fellow Preppers as if he is the only person to have survived a SHTF scenario. Fact is, no one knows what is the future to us humans , except God, and not all SHTF events can be lumped into one type.

    Yes Daisy, I know that he is your friend and a partner in your business, so maybe you might consider speaking to him about being the “All Knowing Selco”.

    • @ Seminole Wind

      Personally I value what
      Selco has to say about SHTF and social collapse a lot more than what most armchair preppers have to say. So sure I’ve been through ice storms, blizzards, long duration power failures, a hurricane etc and while those were all informative for upping my prepping know-how, the major difference was that outside of that immediate area or region, things were still functioning well. So the power companies sent workers, the Red Cross arrived etc. Big difference between that and a countrywide collapse.

    • What have you lived through that could equate to Bosnia, you jackass? Your backyard? The occasional traffic jam? He doesnt’t talk down. Selco talks TO. To those of us who have lived, seen, perpetrated and SURVIVED war. Seminole, go home, you’re drunk on thinking you’re the smartest guy in this forum. Blessed be for the gators that get whatever houses your soul, cause your brain sure ain’t gonna feed ’em.

    • I speak to him regularly about his knowledge. I thank him for reliving the horrors he survived to advise us so that we might also survive. It’s an act of grace and courage that he is willing to do that.

      He has been right FAR more than he has been wrong. If you look back, his predictions – based on real-world experience – have been uncannily accurate. I choose to listen to people wiser than me, not get offended because they know more about a topic.

  • Anyone with a small farm with livestock and a garden that has been seen will be a target. It will be hard to defend. Strangers or anyone you know will probably push in and demand food or shelter.
    We know how to deal with strangers with the objective of stealing but it will be harder to deal in the same way to family and “friends “ with the same objective of taking by force.
    It’s like a stray cat, you feed them once they are yours for life.
    You will not be able to feed ALL who demand or even ask for help.
    We avoid all conversations of prepping with anyone for the past few years. I just hope ALL who had knowledge from years ago, have short memories.
    I’m afraid that hungry bellies will refresh their memories.
    D

    • Why is that?
      Why is it everyone who thinks those of us who live in a rural area, where dang near everyone has a garden, and more than a few have their own small livestock, that all our neighbors will demand food or shelter from us?
      Since COVID, I have seen even more people planting gardens, or those who had gardens previously expand them. I have seen a lot more people out here with their own livestock where they did not have them before.
      Guess what. I fully intend to come to the aid of my neighbors if someone gets pushy. And more than a few of them will do like wise.

      • Unfortunately there’s a huge slice of humanity, especially in this country, who has never had to work one single day in their lives. They don’t know how to work and many pride themselves on that fact. They’ll be the first to turn to violence and theft, and may well head out your way. They may have delusions of fields filled with food, shining in the sun, and country hospitality that helps them or at least is easy to steal from. A bunch of inbred country hicks who can’t shoot. You and yours may have a great deal of disabusing of those delusions to do.

        It may be that living in the ‘hood as I do, I see more of that kind than you do. Multi-generation families who have never done anything other than draw welfare, can’t read or write any more than they have to in order to fill out the forms, and have been fed the victim narrative for far too long. This isn’t about your neighbors. It’s about roving bands of hungry bellies who will find it easier to take from others than to work for their own.

        • -Jayne,
          I agree with the those in this country who not knowing a day in their lives.
          These are the same people who get winded walking from their car in the parking lot to the front doors at Wal-Mart. How are they going to head out my way, a lot further than a walk from the parking lot to the sliding doors?

          When the lockdowns first started here in the US, and at the time it really did have a “Oh, the S IS HTF!” feel too it. Recall all those reports of those coming out of the cities in to the rural areas, killing the owners and taking their things?
          Neither do I, as it did not happen.
          And that is what is most likely going to happen. No one knows when the S has in fact HTF (I could argue it is going on now, yet, still no urban roving bands) and most likely will not know till after the fact. Selco has pointed this out in the past.

          I have lived in West Columbus OH. Not exactly idealistic Norman Rockwell picturesque. Nor was North Charleston SC, a few miles from where that white cop shot that unarmed black man in the back and then tried to plant evidence on him. Then there was New Orleans. I still think to this day, Afghanistan was safer. So, those types are going to be roving bands across the country side? As you say, never done anything other than draw welfare? They are suddenly going to become expert marauders over night? While they may think we are a bunch of inbred country hicks who cannot shoot, with the exception of me, the rest of the guys who shot Expert in my platoon in boot camp where “hicks.”

          You dont think those of us out here or every farmer within a 30 mile radius has not considered that? And they just might have more than a few plans of how to discourage them from roving band status that does not involve so much as a shot taken in anger.

          • I’m sure you all have considered it. I was being a bit facetious. I’m sure you’re aware that not everyone in the welfare queen crowd tops 250 lbs. Since people in general think we’re getting back to normal, the checks are still flowing, and services are still running, we haven’t seen human nature at its worst just yet. Once the people have cleaned out the grocery stores, the checks aren’t flowing, and city services including LEO are no longer available, things will get much uglier. The criminal crowd is better connected and more prepared than even we are.

            • I think you’re absolutely right Jayne. Are we the only ones who witnessed the destruction last summer? When the money and food stops there will be plenty of able bodied and armed people coming.

          • There really is no SHTF literal moment (IMHO). Its the pot of water your in and the heat is turned up incrementally until things get really interesting. It is a lot of things big and small (depending on your perspective). Selco should be able to relate; former Yugo didn’t go completely bonkers all at once. Same thing here in the US… Change happens…big or small.

            If you don’t like the term “prepping” substitute “being prudent.” It’s just semantics in any case. Did I buy 1 or 2 bags of (insert product here)? We all know our own situations in life as it relates to our having what we feel we need. Lost a job? Good thing I stocked up on (insert product here) or put some money aside. I hate going to town all the time so I keep xxxx number of items on hand. In my case I hate going to “Home Depot” the most because of all my projects on my remote homestead! Just burning daylight! Especially when its 100+ in the afternoon; want to get stuff done in the early first light

            I find the “gray man” arguments here amusing. Social media is but a small part, but that is 2% of your overall footprint! The days of ‘disappearing’ are sadly over. Every bill you pay, every use of a toll tag, every text and cell call, every debit card transaction, etc. etc. etc. Who would ever want to run for public office? Anything you ever did or something someone will make up to fit their narrative will be exposed or magically created.

            This society has become weak in mind, body and spirit; all of which you need in order to “survive” whatever you believe is coming. “We” have collectively allowed it to happen so the fault is our own. We will all surely reap what we have sown. “Be the Hammer or the Anvil” – “Goethe”

            So if the climate is calm…be prudent! It can get worse and if you are on this site your in the group that thinks its going to.

            Glean what you can from the folks here and discount whatever you don’t agree with; but at least file it away.

            Always good to have the “big picture,” but remember what’s in front of you! That 10 meter threat will get you first if you ignore it!

            Anyway…

            • The last 18 months have been all about turning up the heat on the pot. The fact that half the population have taken the death stabs and still mask up outside shows the forces of evil they can keep on dialing the heat up.

            • -InTheBooniesTX,
              Good point about being “prudent.”
              What we call “prepping” now, back in the day was being “prudent.”
              Pre-welfare, people did a lot of things we (society in general) scoff at. Like gardening, canning, having a full pantry etc.
              That is just the way it was.

              Good point about “big picture” and the 10m in front of you.

        • @ Jayne I 100 percent agree with this because in the city especially near any hood, looting, violence, disregard for anything resembling etiquette, humanity, consideration is only ever one tiny event away. Like you I have seen it blow up in seconds, even in Walmart during a snow storm, even on a daily basis getting packages stolen if they sit outside for a minute too long, moving trucks get ransacked if they sit alone for a brief moment and this is when it’s peaceful. But I don’t see these people making it out to rural areas since they have no skills to survive through any kind of wilderness trek if there is no gas, least of all in any kind of extreme heat or cold.

          Great article as always. I am personally wondering how fast the worst is going to happen, especially if this rapidly escalating Afghanistan situation is the set up for another 9/11 style attack as a false flag to enforce God only knows what else. It certainly have didn’t to go down this way and was clearly a deliberate plan.

          I wish I was more physically prepared, I’m maybe just past zero due to other circumstances, but thanks to Selco, Daisy and this website’s other writers and a lot of helpful people in the comments I feel surprisingly mentally prepared and proactively employing the concept of shrinking with everything except this site.

  • If you look at history, the great depression in the US started abruptly in 1929 with dramatic wall street crash and really only ended at the start of WW2. If we look closer in time, Venezuela is still in a SHTF moment and shows no sign of recovery. Small victories and advances add up over time. The trick is to keep other people from noticing that you are better positioned to survive, whether it is financial, lifestyle, or just plain staying alive. Good article.

    • The stock market crash of 1929 was a symptom, not a cause of The Great Depression 1.0 … speculative excesses in a number of places, not the least the US, where the Roaring Twenties set in motion things like the Florida Land Boom and mass purchases of consumer products on credit resulted in an overleveraged economy increasingly dependent on International trade. People were actually still positive about the US into 1930, even though collapses of trade started to lead to large scale job losses, and the economy continued a. slow grind to a 15% reduction of GDP by 1932.

      Anyone paying attention in the late twenties could see it coming, but didn’t really know when. I was asked in 2006 at a conference about investing in homes to flip them, and got laughter when I said homes were something that average folks live in, and real estate is where many rich people went to go broke. I can’t begin to tell you how many NYC properties I refinanced in the ‘90s for people who were “asset rich” but cash-flow poor (No, DJT was not one of them), because the bank didn’t want to take the property REO (Real Estate Owned) as long as the “owner” could keep the rent rolls full and paying on time. When we did take it REO, we packaged (securitized) it and sold it to greater fools who hired management companies to try to make it pay. Needless to say, by 2007 anyone paying attention could see what was coming as average folks were buying 23 condos on spec using OPM. The only problem is that when you make the call early, many assume you are wrong.

      Which is a long way of saying, if you are paying attention, we are faced globally with a highly overleveraged economy with Western governments doing everything they can to destroy the real economy where goods and services are produced, but trying to keep a semblence of normality by dumping trillions of dollars into consumer and speculator hands to keep demand for assets and goods that are becoming scarcer up, which is the perfect recipe for severe inflation once people stop hoarding money and start panic buying.

      If you are living in the burbs or city and think WFH is going to be the new way, good luck with that when the economy crashes and brings real unemployment well over 25%, since those doing WFH have already demonstrated they are the most expendable. If you are stock market rich, good luck with that when higher inflation rates and higher interest rates take 65% out the markets. If you are house rich, good luck with that if you cannot produce some of your own food or things you can barter to stay fed.

      This is the Great Reset, and they told us that their vision is that by 2030, the mass of us will own nothing and we will be happy … they didn’t add “or else,” but it was implied.

  • Selco, as so many times, you make some of the best points. You’ve really been there, and it shows.

    What you say fits perfectly with what my family had to say about surviving in Franco Spain when things were iffy. And with most things I’ve read from other people who actually went through TSHTF scenarios.

    My worry now is about supplies. There are supply shortages, and what if the next shoe to fall is those supply shortages become the new normal? Any insights?

  • I have been telling my family (repeatedly, for a while now) that:

    We will not be able to vote our way out of this mess. The Dems have already shown they know how to steal an election, and the Republicans can’t seem to get their act together. And either way, they are all Politicians with their own agendas.

    Whatever we think SHTF will be, we will be wrong. We are already seeing The Beginning, and it looks to me like the boulder is picking up speed as it roars down the mountain. Just how high IS that mountain?

    Whenever we think SHTF will “start,” we will be wrong. “Start” has many definitions, depending on where you are and what you are doing. Washington and his Army had already been fighting in NY and NE for over a year when the Declaration was officially approved. Are you expecting shelling of your neighborhood, or Antifa burning down your town? It could be both, either or something entirely different. For the people of Warsaw in 1949(?), it was waking up to Russian tanks in their streets.

    However we expect ourselves and others to act, we will be wrong. Selco has commented many times on how people react under stress or hardship. Are you REALLY capable of killing your next door neighbor to protect your family? Or are you a cattle car type of person who consistently underestimates the evils of a tyrannical (or desperate) government?

    Now is the time to get our heads wrapped around the idea that there are many alternatives to what we can individually anticipate, including the “unknown unknowns,” as Sec Rumsfeld noted.

    And as he also observed – “You go to war with the Army you’ve got,” so make sure you are as prepared as you and your family can possibly be.

  • My main concern is how to prep with my grandchildren, who are now living with me, one 3 yrs old and one 12 yrs old with Autism. Also my son, whose 20, has high functioning autism, and my 66 yr old husband, who thinks the government will save us. Not getting death jab for my 12 yr old gran and myself, but son’s already had it, went on his own accord “so he could participate in normal society” exact words he used to me. Hubby threatening that’s he’s going to get death jab, I told him fine, go I have life insurance on you.
    So I kinda feel alone in this slow boiling SHTF. We are NEVER going back to the normal we once knew, and maybe that’s a good thing, because from what I have seen, it was shit any ways. Everyone being consumers and not producers, wanting to be their own “gods” with self worship, parents shirking responsibilities by putting their kids on meds and leaving them with an Ipad to entertain them. I am guilty of all this that is why I am saying this. Have changed my wicked ways though. LOL
    I’m glad Selco posted this, because some of us don’t need to hear some fluffed up version, we need the hard truth. I am one of those. I have prepped to the best of my ability and continue to do my inventory, continue to prep, continue to secure my home without my hubby or anyone else knowing what I am doing. I am hoping on a wing and a prayer that if it comes down to the nut cut up here where we are in this rural Texas town, that my hubby will be a stand up man and protect us but I am not counting on that 100%.
    Any suggestions for how to prep with these kids will be greatly appreciated.

    • TexasAntigone,

      First, I suggest you read today’s article

      https://wilderwealthywise.com/remember-your-mission-isnt-done/

      It’s about underestimating yourself and your children. Eye-opener – maybe your husband ought to read it too.

      Then, figure out, as best you can, what you personally and each child, individually, can actually DO.
      Start by playing thinking and analysis games with them (like chess, card games, and esp Kim – from Rudyard Kipling’s Just So Stories). See how they approach problems. Even the 3 year old will be able to do more than you expect.

      Make sure they each have distinct chores, acknowledge their responsibility, and DO THEM. Add to the list until you are really testing both their skills and their reaction to authority. In a crisis, a child who does not follow orders immediately, without whining or stalling, will get themselves or others seriously hurt/killed.

      For yourself, READ READ READ. There are hundreds of books available written by survivors of accidents, natural disasters, concentration camps, ad nauseum. What was their mindset? What did they do? How did they help each other? Why did some of them fail?

      As for your husband, frankly, assume the worst. He might man up, or he might not. You cannot afford to bet the wrong way.

      And, like Solomon in the Bible, pray for wisdom.

      • Thank you so much Virginia Granny. I truly appreciate this and am going to take your advice seriously and too heart. Just ordered Just So Stories, pulled up link to read it and bookmarked it so that I can go back and read the other articles on there. That is some pretty sound advice that I will implement, with everyone. I was in panic porn mode this week, (too many emails and news popups with doom, gloom, and hopelessness) and bought extreme amounts of Pedialyte water for babies, Powdered milk, Juicy Juice and high priced ammo. LOL. I think my problem is that I am doing this on my own, being extremely rigid in my ways of doing things, and being extremely over protective, (controlling in other words LOL). I appreciate you so very much. God bless you

        • Doing things without support (esp emotional support) from a close friend or spouse IS very stressful.

          Take a deep breath from time to time. Gather your thoughts.

          Know your inventory and make sure your food is protected from mice, bugs and human predators.

          Ammo doesnt need to be high priced to be effective. There are several really good websites that sell in quantity. Practice your shooting regularly, even if it’s dry shooting to avoid wasting ammo. If you only have a .22, you might want to get something with a little more punch – ammo is easier to find. I carry a .38 hammerless. Fits in my pocket or Kangaroo pouch without needing a holster. And needless to say, the whole family strongly supports the 2A.

          Make sure that 20 year old knows how to protect his younger siblings, even if he can only manage speedy evacuation (like in a fire) or finding cover for them all in a more imminent danger, like a shooter. If you think he can safely handle a firearm, definitely get him up to speed.

          You got this, Kiddo.

          If you’d like to email, Id be happy to help you out further. Just drop a line here with your addy. Helps to have friends in low places.

    • Join MeWE and request to be in “The Prep Club”. (Daisy posts regularly)
      Eventually, I believe that group will grow and you can connect with someone who resonates with your situation.
      It becomes a conversation…

  • “Now is not the time for drawing attention” – Yep. For some kinds of attention, the only time to draw it is after the big authorities (the ones with multi-state presence and ongoing activity, or multi-county) have collapsed. (Though I dislike what it means for the big-brother-type awareness that results in group safety, I’ll remind people about “visibly loose nails getting hammered” or “noisy screws that get greased”. Is the attention of “the authorities” really what you want, now?)

    “world ended”: Mmm… For most people, the world hasn’t ended. Credit was pretty tight until the 1980s and 1990s. Signature loans only existed for people who knew the bankers or who had proven massive income. Doors could not be left unlocked in cities, nor cars parked on urban streets, because of 2-legged wolves. (I’ve no idea about wagons in the 1880s and earlier. I will hazard a guess that having living beasts of burden included the “vehicle won’t move if the owner ain’t at the reins” safety feature.) Even in semi-rural areas, like Sierra Vista, AZ in the 1970s, doors could not be left unlocked, nor windows left unbarred.

    Economically, the world is ending for many. (Not for the poorest, but many.) A dead-end job will not cover rent, nor will a part-time job. “Rent+starvation” vs “homeless but eating” is slowly becoming more normal. Kids babysitting or mowing yards has mostly become “a dream of yesteryear”.

    The legal situation gotten worse. As more people slide down in worth, the built-in legal disparities (tied to unspent income) are more noticeable. (Ex: $15,000 fine for fraud. As people lose annual income, that fraud penalty gets more painful. But those who have gained net wealth have less incentive to side with laws.) Also, there have been some egregious attempts to constrain tort cases. (It is now illegal to sue a former guardian over a rape or abuse that happened more than 10 years ago. So, what recourse do ignorant children have before they learn enough to know to file a lawsuit? What recourse do workers have when their employers misuse loopholes to reduce multi-decade wages? And what punishments no longer await the tormentors of either children or abused workers?) ((I wonder why those claiming the “law and order” mantle chose to block the abused from civil recourse when Federal/State/Local law fails the abused. And, how many who passed that change benefited directly from the 10 year limit.))

    But, overall? The world is not ending so much as moving from “general understanding is enough and a typical amount of effort rewards you” to “detailed understanding is more important and effort-plus-determination is likely to reward you”. The old days, and old ways, keep vanishing as people are more connected. Some ways were abusive and enforced lack of knowledge – those will only return when enough people are ignorant. (Ex: women were kept in kitchens and pregnant. Children died mining coal and lost limbs to making thread on giant machines. Men, to parphrase an old song, “owed their souls to the company store”.) Other ways were helpful within the means of the time, and have been set aside as technology improves. (Ex: We used to spend $100s and $1000s to ensure that food could be kept cold, or frozen, with ice shipped from northern climes. We even shipped Maine ice to Central America. We also made sure that many houses had root cellars for storing tubers and cured meats. We have cold boxes now. If something happens to the easy electricity, what do we do then? I will add that some towed trailers have propane-powered refrigerators. Idea: Are there moonshine-powered equivalents?) In each case, things changed to be what many saw as better.

    As to raw materials? Some are lost forever, like prevalent whale oil and easy-access fossil fuels. Others have expensive technology-requiring solutions, like recycled aluminum and recycled plastics. Others merely require time, like good lumber and many kinds of steel.

    In short, the world has changed*. Some options of the past are gone, so that part of the world has ended. Some changed, which means we had to change to keep using them. I won’t say “we have to move on”. I will say we need to “adapt or suffer”, even if our adaption is like the Amish or Mennonites (“this far and no further”). And we need to be deliberate, by making our choices now, deciphering how our decisions will affect us, applying what we’ve learned, AND being open to modifying our choices as we learn more. (Like cleaning up after cooking chicken: Do we just wash everything in warm water and call it done, because that’s what our distant ancestors did? Or do we wash everything carefully with hot soapy water and dry what we can in the sun, because we know more about salmonella and ultraviolet radiation**?)

    -=-=-=-=-
    * – Some options are new, like solar powered calculators and debit cards and “SODIS water treament”. More adaption, but unrelated.)
    ** – The sun will burn you. You are big, so only portions of you get burned. You’ll likely survive this, even if you end up brick red and with a few blisters. The sun will also burn tiny pests. They are small, so each is burned all over. They die. 1/12th hour in direct sun per side kills more invisible things than bleach or alcohol, and needs less skill to use (“is the sun shining on the surface?” vs “is the alcohol solution between 70% and 90%, with 85% being best? is the bleach solution at 3%-5%, because less is not strong enough and more may harm you?”).

  • Normal as we’ve known it is already gone. The nearest walmart has rearranged, widened isles, removed arms and ammo, even bows and arrows are gone. It isn’t just food but most departments that have shrunk. Clothing is still about the same as a year or two ago. Gardening is less, food is much less, tools and car care are less, paint about the same, canning supplies are Iess, camping gear is getting Iess space and so on.

    Speach isn’t as free, neither is going out in public. Some things have reopened. Much is gone.
    The major push to vaxx the rest of the population is escalating as is the rhetoric against the unvaxxed. It’s escalating exponentially with hateful words.

    Families are divided over wether or not they need to be building up a supply to meet needs if more supplies aren’t available. Many are thinking nothing has really changed if the Great unvaxxed would just comply. Some believe the end of the world is at hand. It’s a great divide.

    I personally think we will be witnessing much worse than we’ve seen so far. If hungry folks are roaming about searching for food it could well be like in the Great Depression. The city guys may well stay in the cities hunting there. But those with rural relatives or roots may came out here hunting. Some will work and many, just like now, won’t take honest work. Some don’t know how to do anything of value. Vocational educations were for the most part done away with. Kids used to grow up knowing how to work on vehicles. Vehicles and opportunities have changed.

    If lead is flying about you may not be out in the garden so much. Going outside for any reason will be done less. Water in cities may stop entirely. Well water out in the country may need to be drawn the old-fashioned way.

    You’ll need the canning already done. Beans and rice are good food if you can cook and heat. You will need a lot that’s edible hot or cold. You will need water available inside. I’ve canned thick soups that could be stretched with rice or potatoes but can be eaten straight from the jars. Same with apple sauce ect. Pasta, rice, dry beans all need water and heat to prepare.

    I can for us to eat from what I harvest from the garden. Nothing fancy. Just simple food nicely seasoned. I have 22 gallons of water in the kitchen. I use from that for our needs, if needed, then replace it. My second well has a winch on it. So if the other well doesnt have power I can still get good clean, cool, water… but it’s hard work.

    I don’t have abundant food to give away or trade. We don’t have weapons like before. Thieves have taken our two pistols and a lot of my tools. When it takes all day to see a specialist or when my husband has been hospitalized, things have been taken. We have no place to go when things get worse. I can hope good neighbors will stand together if outsiders come here. If they don’t, then its been a good life. No proof but the druggy neighbor is long gone so no recovery is likely.

    Do I expect harder times? I sure do!
    Will it be suddenly or slowly? It could be either. It might even be some of both. If the government stops paying social security benefits or welfare and snap benefits to the public, everyone will be in a world of hurt. We’ve seen that happen in Greece and Venzuela ect. European nations divided by war have seen horrible times. We’ve see Syrians pouring into Europe while escaping the horrors of war.

    If this nation financially can’t support it’s people any longer… we all will pay the price. It won’t matter that social security was something we’ve paid for. If folks aren’t working there won’t be taxes to support the poor. Printing more and more paper is just a faked ecconomy. That doesn’t bode well for the citizens of this great nation.

  • @1stmarinejarhead I respect and listen to the majority of your comments. Thank you for your service.. However, I live in a similar situation as yours. Great neighbors, forward thinking people, we prep (alot) raise livestock, garden our hearts out, but I can’t really trust those around me as I have never been in a stressful situation with them. I would love to say that they would be there for me but I can’t count on it. I prep accordingly.
    Please keep commenting, yours are definitely some of my favorites.

    • -Owt,
      Thank you for your kind comment, I truly appreciate it.
      Good point about those in times of stress. We all like to think we will handle the stress, rise to the occasion and persevere.
      But we will not know until that happens. We may be surprised at who does and who does not. Even I, under significant degrees of stress could crack.
      As for your neihgbors, I get you may not be able to trust them. But you may also find yourself in a situation where you may have no choice but to trust them.

  • The longer the “crisis” can be extended by TPTB, the more freedoms and liberty they will steal from us.

    So don’t plan on this going away any time soon. They aren’t finished yet.

  • You really want to see how this go down? Watch “the economic ninja”. On YouTube. Look for the title on China silver and banking. If you’re smart you can connect the dots. If you can’t don’t worry and be happy.

  • The phoenix must burn completely to ashes before it can arise anew. Scary times ahead. Thank you for your insights.

  • Dear fellows, Selco is right. This is not ending anytime soon.

    We´ve been through this induced collapse for so much time now, that I see much clear where this is headed. And mind you, Venezuela is/was a primary target, being one of the most important US fuel providers, and a privileged geographic position, strategically speaking.
    As much as I would like to be optimistic, truth is, it´s hard to find good news.
    If you remember this article I wrote you will see how important long-term approach is going to allow peace of mind.

    https://www.theorganicprepper.com/venezuela-black-market-fuel-thieves-hunger/

  • Daisy, thank you for your website. I have volunteered at small disasters and three large ones, an earthquake, flood and a forest fire. I purchased Selco’s book, “SHTF Survival Boot Camp.” Lots of good information. It is interesting reading. I think Selco’s book would make a great movie. The movie could show a person attending his boot camp and then Selco’s real world situations where he applied his skills. I think it would be great if they interviewed you in the movie.

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