The Second Wave: Regardless of What You Think About the Virus, Things Are About to Change

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Co-Author of SHTF Survival Bootcamp

It’s important to not work on “assumptions.” It’s very easy for us to think about points but then conclude, “Everybody knows that, everybody sees that, everybody’s already understood that. Working from that position undermines that it is possible people haven’t seen or acknowledged or observed certain things.

So this is just a “basic outlook.” Let’s take stock of where are we now.

The larger focus is still on the pandemic but also making sure we look into some aspects on either side of that fact. Regardless of your personal opinion about the virus, things will change for everyone with the second wave.

First, there’s GOING to be a second wave.

Firstly, we need to accept there is going to be a second viral wave. That is inevitable. That is absolutely inevitable. Now, regardless of your feelings on how bad the pandemic is, how lethal the virus is, what you think of the statistics, or the reporting, etc. I am not going to say that’s irrelevant, but I am going to say that it doesn’t undermine is the fact there’s going to be a second wave. Secondly, for any virus that spreads in the general population spread, there is always a risk of mutations, so just because we could say it hasn’t potentially been “that bad” until now, doesn’t mean that’s the status quo, and it’s going to stay the same.


So let’s first acknowledge those two things.

Now, here’s what’s important about that. Looking at historical trend analysis, which is fairly substantive, the second wave is always going to be worse than the first, not only in infection and fatality numbers but also in overall impact. And why is that? The fact is, the number spike will largely be due to people’s actions as they come out of the lockdown of wave one.

We’re already seeing that:

  • people are (understandably) demonstrating their frustration and venting their concerns
  • gathering in large groups
  • not following certain advice to minimize the potential infection spread

That’s happening and it’s happening worldwide. It is not exclusive to any country. Many, many countries are suffering from this same problem. This isn’t speculative. You can all see this occurring with your own eyes. So these actions are going to be reflected in wave two infection numbers.

For those countries already into the second wave, you can see that wave one is being dwarfed. For those that are not into the wave two yet, don’t worry, unfortunately, you’ll catch up in time.

Government measures

Now, the control measures that the government will try to utilize for wave two will initially be the same actions as wave one, but they just won’t be as readily accepted by the vast majority of the population that came through wave one. People are tired, they are frustrated and angry, and they are scared, largely due to exceptionally irresponsible media action.

So now it gets a bit more ‘wild west’ as the policy for wave two tries to replicate the policy for wave one, but the general populace is not as inclined to comply as it previously was.

That will vary from region to region and country to country as to how vehemently these measures will be pushed back against. The other thing to consider is that people have now had far longer and got far more information to make up their mind on how they feel about certain things. People went into wave one really in the dark. They were able to look at the historical pandemic examples, but not much more. Now, people have read up and formed their own opinion, and begun to crystallize their own thought processes AND will act (or refuse to act) accordingly.

The supply chain

All the problems that occurred in wave one will reoccur in wave two, possibly with more consequences and/or potentially with a deeper meaning. Let’s start with the supply line.

The weakening of the supply lines that has occurred, the lack of certain products, the panic buying, the herd mentality – that’s all still there, and large parts still ‘unsolved’ and it’s going to happen again, it’s inevitable. Things are not “going back to normal.”

I hate to say it, but people in packs, follow very set scripts. They are very predictable in their behavior. That is why we can make statements such as these with good authority. And as much as the suppliers are trying to assure us wave one was ‘well managed’ and ‘not that bad’, reports from various places are showing the contradiction that there was, is, and WILL BE impact on the supply line.

Financial problems

Now, there’s a twofold solution to these problems we are highlighting. One is just to keep preparing to always be prepared, keep chipping away, bit by bit, keep making your purchases, keep your stocks up.

But unfortunately, a lot of people got massive economic hits in wave one. So many are likely limited in their financial ability prepare via purchase. That we fully understand and sympathize with.

Things are going to be different for most of us.

Managing expectations

That brings us to the next point, and I would apply this across the board, regardless of your current situation, is you need to start managing your own and your immediate family’s expectations. You need to start thinking in terms of this:

“As supplies dwindle and prices increase, we need to eat more simply, to accept things as they are. We might have to eat less meat, or in fact, we might just have to eat less food.”


Now this is very challenging because you will still naturally want to push back to get that “normalcy.” You’ll think, “Why should I have to *insert selected discomfort here*?”

Unfortunately, far too many people in the preppersphere were preparing on the basis of:

“My lifestyle is never going to be interrupted no matter what.”

When we’re into a long-term scenario, such as this pandemic, there are going to be uncomfortable impacts for everybody.

There will be a point when you will start to feel the impact after you’ve gone as far as you can in your familiar lifestyle and kept to your original standards for as long as possible. If we are being honest, many of you are already at this point.

As much as you can adjust your mental attitude early and acknowledge and start to accept that the impact is happening, or coming, and will worsen, it positions you to be far more resilient further into this pandemic. Because that, folks, is where we are.

We are a LONG way from the end of this.

We can’t relax our preparations.

I’ve been having a number of very interesting online conversations lately, and the phrase that keeps re-occurring is that we’ve been given a “slow-burning virus.” In this modern, insanely paced world, it seems that everybody wanted to have a simple, quick ‘zombie apocalypse’, and in two weeks, it’s all over. Then we kind that we go from there, rebuild, and move on…

Sorry, but there is nothing fast about true pandemics in overall terms. This is going to be around for some time, and everybody is going to have to adapt, overcome, improvise, and all that good stuff. And the sooner we start wrapping our heads around that, the better.

To add to this, while focusing on the pandemic, we can’t forget the relevant regional and or seasonal issues we would normally prepare for. For example, we’re now entering into a very high risk for wildfires here, where I live in Sweden. Other folks will be bracing for tornado seasons, hurricane or flooding seasons, or different natural occurrences. So we can’t just get fixated on just one thing. That’s never what preparedness has been about.

We have to deal with a pandemic, yes, but we must be looking at these other issues as well being aware and maintaining our preparations accordingly, rounding off, topping up, adjusting like we normally try to do for every season of every year, and ideally, a little bit beyond…

What to do right now

Now is not the time to get caught up in the immediacy of whatever the media wants you to focus on first. It’s time to stop and take a concerted long view of where you perceive you will be in six to twelve months from now.

As an actionable activity, I would advise everybody to take a pause and definitely turn off the television. I would advise you to give yourself 24 hours totally off social media and media of any sort at some point this week. Give yourself the time, space, and place to think, sit down, and acknowledge the situation you’re at personally. Think about your long term plans in earnest.

Selco and I have been doing this for the last few weeks. We’ve had very intense discussions with our spouses, near relatives, friends and extended family. We’ve been coming up with contingencies A, B, and C, thinking about what our long-term plans are, and where we are at in all of this. If you haven’t already done so, now is the time to be doing this.

You need to be having these conversations with loved ones as well. Please don’t make those conversations too oppressive. Remember, everybody’s having a hard time right now. Have big conversations, but please, just go easy as you approach these subjects. Don’t ignore them, don’t put them off, but don’t rip into them with such tenacity that it’ll shut down the other party’s interest in the discussion.


  • Accept the longevity of our current situation.
  • Keep preparing.
  • Adopt a new level of a resilient mindset that will embrace discomfort
  • Take a concerted pause to assess your long term goals.
  • Ensure you communicate with those around you in a clear, concise, but empathetic manner.

About Toby

Toby Cowern has an extensive background in the military, emergency services, risk management, and business continuity, combined with applied wilderness and urban survival skills. He discusses personal safety, security, and the crossover of military skills to the average civilian.

Toby Cowern

Toby Cowern

Toby Cowern has an extensive background in the military, emergency services, risk management, and business continuity, combined with applied wilderness and urban survival skills. He discusses personal safety, security, and the crossover of military skills to the average civilian.

Leave a Reply

  • To put this virus in perspective, if it is true that 500,000 worldwide have died from it, that is .0000625% of the world’s population. Are you REALLY going to live your lives in fear over that percentage?

    • You may need to re-read the article from a different perspective. 🙂

      It’s not about the stats on the virus. It’s about the response to the virus, which is largely out of our control. If we can’t get supplies because nobody is importing them or no stores are open to purchase them, that’s an issue. If we can’t make money because the government mandated that our workplace be closed, that’s an issue. If we can’t maintain our current standard of living due to shortages, that’s an issue.

      It’s not so much about the virus – it’s about the fallout.

      • This perspective is why I really appreciate your website. It’s not about what ‘we’ think anymore. It’s what we can do and how to prepare for how the world around us responds to what is happening. It’s def. a paradigm shift. Thank you for continuing to post such well thought and helpful advice!

      • There are many ways of responding. If the pessimistic projections prevail for Covid/Wuhan round 2, common sense dictates other skills may be required. The public already knows this. Witness the shelves altready emptying in certain types of retail shops.

    • Only if Joe Biden loses the election. Then, it’s four more years of masks, gloves, social distancing and huge fines for violators. If Joe and his husband, Joe Biden win, Covid-19 will INSTANTLY disappear…

      • Do you really think it would be any different under a Biden administration?
        This is being used a method to gain further control over us.
        As was said by another dem, never let a crisis go to waste.

      • You could be right Leonard because the Dems will not stop trying to undermine and remove a duly elected president. I guess they think that if they throw a bigger fit or teller a bigger lie that somehow the people will finally support them. It will not happen. Sadly, all that will happen is that those who have been trying to live and let live will be forced to say “Enough”, whatever that looks like. At the rate we are going however, that may happen before the election and then our President can concentrate on his job unimpeded by banshees.

    • You miss several points. The first is that some of us prefer to live as long as we can. Furthermore, your data refers only to the death rate from those infected. While I’ll admit we don’t for certain know the infection rate, it has so far been shown to be very low, and the death rate from that infection has been calculated everywhere from .2 % to 4.75 %. Which is right we will eventually discover – those of us who survive – but in the meantime, your data remind me of something I learned a long time ago: There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics. Still further, with every disease, there is always the risk of mutation. And within the risk of mutation lies a very serious risk of equal or greater contagion, combined with an increased morbidity or mortality. And, given the so-far low rate of infection of our population that gives us serious potential problems. Then, too, there is some speculation that whatever immunity we acquire from infection might only be very temporary, making this a very serious long-term issue indeed… you ever have a cold? More than once?
      It’s great that you are optimistic. That’s an important attribute in many crises. But realistic optimism is the best approach.

      • How can you believe ANYof these numbers or recommendations put out by the government. All cause mortality is lower than last year. How can that be if 100,000+ Covid deaths? Open your eyes. You’re being played.

  • Thank you for such clarity of what you see not just happening in the moment, but also where it’s leading.
    Difficult at times to not get complacent as things “open up” and get sucked into the everything is ok now. It’s not, I’m reminded each trip I make to the stores, still many things not in stock, or very little in stock, still limits on quantities, as well as significant price increases.
    At least in my area. I still consider myself to be a newbie to prepping, at least at this level, and am so so grateful for all the help and encouragement to do what I can, and so many how to and what has worked for other following this blog.
    I think for me the mental preparation for coping with and perhaps even thriving growth wise through this is the biggest challenge for me, at least at the moment.

    • Arlene I completely agree with you, I’m new to this too and am just very grateful to have found this site. It’s been a lot mentally to wrap my head around but is so good to know we are not alone in trying to take responsibility for our families and our futures. ❤️.

  • Excellent article Toby. We are planning *and* taking action for wave 2. I think this article will wake some people up that believe we are coming to the end of the Pandemic.

  • If not for the television telling everybody to panic over the “planned-demic”, nobody would think there is one.

    This is politically motivated issue, not a medical one. I don’t know anyone who got sick, and nobody I know knows anybody who got sick. If people got sick or died, it was from something else and labelled “covid” to get the money bonus for the hospital. The tests are not accurate, and the ventilator treatments are doing the killing which is far fewer than seasonal flu, and might even BE seasonal flu, but they label EVERYTHING “covid” now.

    • And no one I know nor do any of my friends or family. A neighbor said they knew of someone so there’s that. We all know people who have gotten viruses, or other illnesses, it is part of life.

      Your comment does support the point of the article which is that there are many who are on board with the “lockdown” and “masks for all”, as such, their fear (or desire to live out a drama, or excuse to not be responsible) will likely result in continued economic shutdowns, loss of businesses, people refusing to go to work (like a snow day!), and the subsequent problems with supply and transport of goods and services albeit a self-fulfilling prophecy and man-made construct.

      Neither you nor I can convince those who will not open their eyes.

    • My DILs 34 yo twin brother had/has a very bad near death because of asthma case, coughing up blood, etc. etc. They didn’t have any room for him at the hospital in Seattle, so he was sent home — with no help. This was very near the beginning of all the lockdown stuff. He traveled all around the Puget Sound for his small business. He’s better but still down and out with serious chronic fatigue. He’s lost 40+ pounds and is still very weak. The doctors tell him that if they would’ve put him on a ventilator he would’ve died like the others who were put on ventilators. They’re looking at him like he’s some kind of wonder boy.

      The other one I know of is a respiratory therapist who is a co-worker with my son. He went to visit family in NYC and came home with a very bad case. They put him in a coma and on a machine that puts oxygen into the blood. He’s still in a coma after two months. I understand the strain in NYC came from Italy.

      This is a debilitating and painful monster if it is survived. I believe caution is the right attitude. We can whistle Yankee Doodle all we want and end up debilitated at best if we survive. So this really is about survival and not about politics. With the gloomy future that we can all see, the last thing we want is to be debilitated because we didn’t believe it was real enough from our vantage point.

      So far, we still have running water and electricity. When the S really HTF, everybody’s health will be on a slippery slope.

    • Well, I had it & I’ve never been sicker in my life. My granddaughter works in healthcare & has been on the front lines for months. You people seem to think if you deny it long enough & loud enough then it won’r be real. There is no limit to ignorance. And you’re still missing the point of the article. Reference Daisy’s remark above; it’s not about the virus, it’s about the fallout.

  • We’ve been thinking about this a lot in our household. Even though this is a pretty laughable pandemic, it’s being treated like it’s The Plague and THAT is the threat.

    We’re not afraid of the virus. As with any disease you’ll get outlier cases where seemingly healthy people have serious complications. It sucks, but that’s part of life and is true of every infection out there. The difference with COVID is how easily it spreads.

    Since it’s more easily spread, we saw more of those outliers in a shorter amount of time. But that low hanging fruit has been plucked. Deaths in June we’re WAY below expected death figures – because it’s easily spread and tends to kill those already near the end of their lives, we pulled a lot of deaths forward by several months (maybe a year or two).

    This will get ignored, because those in (and seeking it) power need people afraid. That’s why the emphasis now is on cases; the deaths are nowhere to be seen, but we’re testing so much now that we’re finding more about how tame it actually is because so few of these cases turn serious.

    Despite that, we’ll see more lockdowns and disruptions in daily life. Remember mid March when this was just supposed to be a temporary 2 week thing so we could still “have summer” this year? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

    My family has acknowledged the inevitable. Combined with the “protests” that are destroying American history, it’s a very bad omen of things to come. It’s why we sold our house and are moving way out to the countryside where people are more hardy and less panicky. Disruptions will continue, then a strong (wo)man who will make the trains run on time will appear.

    Keep prepping and take seriously the lessons learned in this last trial run. It’s about to get a lot worse.

  • A great article with lots of actionable advice. Yes, we North Americans are not used to interruptions in our lifestyle or physical hardships (e.g, AC)! I find off-grid living without running water keeps me fit and in touch with the energy required to survive. I especially appreciate Toby’s advice about how to approach the conversation with our family and smaller circle. We need to show patience in these conversations and be willing to listen. Overall, a great read. Thanks Toby and Daisy!!!!

  • It was clear to me from the very beginning that this thing wasn’t going to be over in two weeks. I told a number of people that they wouldn’t recognize our country after six months. Nobody was listening then, and most are still in denial now. There’s no easy fix and no escape. I pray almost daily for endurance and wisdom.

  • The First problem here: is the experts are saying that we are in the first wave and they do not even know, IF there will be a “second” wave at all.

    Lock downs do not end a “wave”, they only slow it down and drag it out. Lock downs cause flare ups once they are halted, this is what we are seeing, not a “second” wave.

    The second problem with the article is that we are starting to see natural herd immunity starting to happen. It is happening in Sweden and looks like it is starting in other countries.
    That could prevent a second wave from occurring or it might not. No one really knows.

    A “second” wave is a problem where the virus or disease mutates to a new more deadly form or a more serious one. Bypassing Herd immunity of the first wave, by being so different.

    Right now they think they are seeing a mutation of the virus to a less lethal variety, yet possibly one that will still be stopped by herd immunity.

    The second wave stuff, may just be fear, and intimidation tactics. At this point it is far to early to tell, If one will occur at all.
    Now it is always good to be prepared, but it is best to be properly informed, keeping a cool head and not letting the fear mongering fools of the Media, etc, control you.

    If there is a threat, we need to be watching, I would say it is the race wars, culture wars that are being pushed up on us. Minorities are being fed propaganda to inflame them world wide. Communists, Antifa and Islamic radicals will use this as cover for their activities.
    If that flares up into civil wars it will be far more of a problem, than the Covid 19 virus.

    How will you stay locked down and safe, when they are out there rioting, looting, burning homes or
    if they start executing people that disagree with their opinions? Or set up their own zones, run by War Lords? How will you get Medical help if they won’t enter into the Zone to treat you?

    One might say this is already starting to happen. Considering the Driver shot at the protest in Utah. The other things that were going on in CHAZ/Chop in Seattle.
    The rhetoric used by the leader of the Black militia, that marched in Stone Mountain, Georgia on the 4th of July.
    These are bigger threats relating to the pandemic than a “second” wave, that experts are not sure will ever come.

  • 4FEB.
    That is when I called the ball and we beat the rush of panic buying. We already keep a well stocked pantry. We just upped flour, yeast, rice, beans, and a whole bunch more. After that, it was just top off what we have used.

    The wife and I have talked about differing possibilities/events/unrest/shortages in the past. But to actually go to the grocery store and see the shelves bare or with large gaps. The meat section drastically reduced and the prices shot up, while not surprising, shocking to see.

    What I have found interesting is the increase in gardens I am seeing. Usually there is a percentage of people who grow a garden every year. That has likely tripled. And those with gardens have increase them in size.
    Also seeing plots of land, fallow for years, have been planted this year.

    Otherwise, we had a plan in place pre-COVID19 of projects around the house that needed to get done. And there is our plan to get debt free this year (except the house payment, but we will be putting extra payments at the principal). We talk, assess and reassess on a regular basis.

  • I do not know totally what to think on the pandemic, however, I know too many people who actually believe that germs and viruses do not exist. I have been told that they are made up to prevent people from having fun. This was before the pandemic. Now, it’s gonna happen. so you don’t go to the bar? or other place that is shut down. Well everybody is packing into wally worlds around the nation. Going shopping for 2-3 items every day just to get out of the house. Disease is not just spread by swapping spit but but proximity and touching the same items that 20-30 others did in the past hour. I drive truck and I tell you right now even now during covid that over 1/2 the millenials still do not wash their hands clear across North America even after going number 2. These people are touching the doors and stocking the shelves and making your food. I observe them it disgusts me. I do not eat in restaurants any more.
    Think of how many business that have already failed. Think of how many with reduced occupancy require the full capacity of the summer rush to make up for the rest of the year. It is over what we once knew. I would like to say that things will get back to a normal, but too much money has been lost and Not to mention the governments losses, who’s really buying debt when everyone is selling debt?
    I say pay down what you owe if you can, do not get any new loans or cards of fancy things no matter what is offered, there is a catch. Many companies are changing the contracts, no more unsecured loans. They can come after you. Learn to love ichibann soup it may be what takes you through the other side. I know that preppers will tell you not to but i lived for a long time on that with juice and meat once a week when I had a personal debt crisis back in 03.
    Anyone who claims they know what is happening is full of it. Even the gov and gates are faking it at this point in my opinion. With globalism failing who wants to trust a global system. With money failing who wants to trust electronic cash that you cannot hold.
    I recently bought Selco’s books after a long hand-full of years or so of reading his essays. I figured that it is time now and it’s a good idea to get the other perspectives. I loaned the first one to my brother he read it and called me up saying that man is in a lot of pain. I agree. it is not going to be a cakewalk.
    just with this nonsense now business are failing, relationships are failing.
    I work in the supply line. guys are giving up. The truck stop employees, the people who stock the shelves in the stores, the people who unload and staff the warehouses, they are your real heros, and yet they are suffering through attrition. Nobody wants to come get a job that nobody cares about that you actually must be here do the work and follow the rules. Not when you can sit on your can at home and make a living.
    The modern world was built on those who came in on time, did what they were asked, and followed the rules of the workplace. For many of us that is the best we can do and that is the best of mankind.
    Art is great but not everybody can be an artist, leisure is great but you must first earn that time off. When the formula for building the society is broken, then the result must be a broken system.

  • Don’t forget to keep stocking ammo…there’s no point buying it if you can’t keep it.

  • EVERYTHING WE ARE SEEING…can be laided at the feet of the US MILITARY,their flying up and down the coasts spraying one desase after another,THIS is killing the Bees,wildlife and soon you’ll see all the birds die,I live in the mountains,I HAVEN’T SEEN A HONEY BEE IN THREE YEARS,and not many flowers either,everyones garden is dieing,THE FARMERS ARE UNDER ATTACK BY THE POLICE GANGS,and government,THE LORD told my neighbor to build a green house,HE was shocked,A FAMINE IS COMING AND IT WILL BE CAUSED BY THE US ARMY AT FT.DETRICK,BIO-WARFARE CENTER,IN MARYLAND..creators of every desase americans ever heard of..ITS a shame to see a large BULL ELK so sick he;s stagering around trying to walk..And having trouble holding his head up…

  • Daisy, I don’t have much room to be critical because I have nearly zero experience when it comes to prepping. And I really look forward to reading every new post here on your website. But when you have guest writers you really need to edit (or edit better?) for general readability and so people in all levels of “prepdom” can understand the writing. Two things in this article made it hard to understand for me as a newbie and as a person who likes properly formed English sentences. The first is abbreviations or acronyms without their definitions. (What does TL;DR mean anyway?) The second kind of speaks for itself. There were a few different poorly worded or poorly organized sentences that forced me to stop and stumble before I had to assume the correct meaning and continue reading. Aside from these things I found the information mostly useful in that it confirmed what I already know in my heart is going to happen. (I feel like this virus is never going to end.)

    My request: edit your guest articles (better) and include definitions when there are acronyms.

    • TL;dr is just an internet “slang” acronym that means “too long, didn’t read.”

      A lot of our authors are from outside the US and while we edit for clarity, we like to leave as much of their “accent” and personality in the work as possible 🙂

    • It’s not just newbie preppers. I didn’t understand the abbreviation TL;DR either, and I’ve been prepping for over 10 years. I know some folks use slang abbreviations from their military days, and when I ask about what it means, they are kind enough to enlighten me. So, it’s not just you, and its not just newbies. But I think folks on here will be happy to enlighten us if we will just ask.

    • A political snowflake has requested an edit. We are beyond that point in history now. Please wake up and notice what is going on around you. This post about needing an editor is exactly the kind of behavior that SELCO mentions. Some are still trying to make the old normal out of the COVID 19 pandemic, the protests, the grocery shortages , the break in the supply chain, the inability to work outside the home. I pray you will shake it off and grasp whatever knowledge you can from any article about survivng these kinds of life events even if the punctuation is not to your standards. At this moment in time any useful news or information is not only needed but, sought after. Where can I buy lysol is BIG NEWS to any essential worker. Northwest Ohio and southern MI have found Excedrins to be scarce since Dec 2019. Where did all the Progresso soup go? Minute maid juice boxes are get them while you can. The days of the Land of Plenty are paused. I ramble. Please forgive but, the nerve to critique a helpful, kind hearted article and request an edit.

      • Progresso soups came to the mid-Atlantic… you must have all the Campbell’s chunky that we can’t find. We also have Birdseye frozen veggies but the green giant is no where in sight. Tri-colored pasta noodles seem to be a thing of the past too. Limits on quantity has loosened up, but availability is still a challenge with many large gaps on shelves. Seems that supply chains are more regional than ever. Makes me want to develop more local sourcing for goods as our circles become smaller and smaller from necessity.

  • Thank you, Toby. We are too early into this affliction to know the outcome or duration. However, let’s say it will be 27 months counting from March 2020. Then break 27 months into three sets of 9 months. We have not made it the first nine innings. Think baseball. So if this is the best of three 9 inning games the virus is winning and we haven’t even played a complete game yet!

  • Great advice, Toby. The faster we can wrap our minds around the changes that will come (face it- we as individuals have little ability to solve supply chain or employment disruptions), the quicker we’ll be able to adapt to new circumstances. It’s not about arguing if this is fair and right. We’re beyond that.

    My husband and I have been watching homesteading videos, which help us adapt our expectations for life ahead. We especially enjoy those produced by dirt patch heaven as they provide practical advice and help us understand what we can do with little land and few resources. It’s all about adapting, which when you think about it, is a great opportunity to learn new skills.

  • I agree with everything he pointed out in the article. I also am taking actions like he stated in the article. Unfortunately, there will always be those out there who think this virus is nothing or it’s like the flu and won’t wear masks or just take simply precautions to protected themselves and their families. That is why there will be a second wave. if people don’t want to wear masks or take simply precautions, I feel they should sign waivers with their health care provider(if they have health coverage, which will stated if they do get the virus, they will not ask for services at the hospital. It’s ridiculous that doctors and nurses have been begging people to do these things but many times they have been derided and abused for trying to save lives. It’s about survival and right now I’m trying to survive. The news about Nick Cordero shows that the healthiest person can be taking down by this virus, but you know if people think their invincible, more power them. I just know what me and my family will be doing.

    • Wearing fear masks is one of the reasons there will BE a second wave. By cutting sun exposure, vitamin D is cut and that nutrient has an extremely strong negative correlation with death from COVID19. If you want to “stay safe,” get plenty of sensible sun exposure, especially if you are dark-skinned. And do what I am doing right now: keep WELL informed from a variety of sources and let people know what works.
      What doesn’t work: fear masks have been compared to expecting a chain link fence to stop blowing sand. UNsocial distancing increases stress, ESPECIALLY in the elderly. Isolating the elderly is so harmful I call it murder.
      But it is more important to know what DOES work: sunshine, hydroxychloroquine (if early enuf), love.

      The second wave can be much larger than the first because it starts with many more infected. Viruses damp down in the sunny months and come back in the fall. But if you keep your vitamin D levels high, you probably won’t be hurt even if you are over 70 and all that.

  • Testing numbers are up… So positives for the virus numbers are up… But deaths are down… seems normal for a pandemic like this. Lock downs do not end a pandemic, they only slow it down and drag it out. Lock downs cause flare ups once they are halted, and this is what we are seeing in some areas. The only way to beat this is to be immune to it, and the only way to be immune to it is be exposed to it (until they figure out a vaccine). Until then, those truly at risk should take the necessary precautions to avoid it.
    —Everyone needs to plan ahead accordingly for more supply chain disruptions in the future and take the needed precautions there too.
    —And people should also think twice before begging the government to control others on their behalf.

  • We have guidelines to lessen the effect of covid from the CDC. People ARE tired of life not being “normal”, but if you abandon the tools we have to lessen the spread of this virus we are not doing anyone any favors. It is not going to magically disappear. You are at risk regardless of your age or health status. Not following the guidelines is not a protest against loss of freedom. It is an act of rebellion. Think about all the areas of life that have rules for success. If you don’t follow those rules, you have a natural consequence of loosing your freedoms. It isn’t about the media either. Its about doing all you can to survive and to help others survive as well. The political manipulation of this crisis in Washington D.C. is a distraction. We have to be intelligent thinking adults!

    • Yes – we do have to be intelligent. Risk is about impact and probability. So far, in this article and comments section I have seen, zip, nada, no statistical analysis much less risk analysis. Anecdotal evidence suggests very strongly that the probability of death from Covid/Wuhan is anything but a Gaussian curve but in fact highly skewed. We know the modeling underlying the initial predictive analytics was wildly inaccurate. We know the initial global spread of the disease ocurred because of political decisions in China. We know Covid gained a foothold in some of the hardest impacted states because of political decisions at ports of entry and herding of some of the highest risk demographics into nursing homes. We know that even before the modeling is conducted much of the data is inaccurate/cooked.

      It’s not that one shouldn’t account for Covid in risk analysis. It’s that the data/modeling are highly suspect; the motives/intentions of many of the players questionable; Covid is only one among multiple risks.

      Probability is inherent in risk. Before running for the hills or bankrupting your family I recommend due diligence in ensuring your decisions are based on realistic probabilities. It could be, from a probability pov, that the greatest marginal benefit is gained from shucking these leaders who have no clue what they are demanding while exercising their authoritarian instincts.

    • The CDC is the Chinese Death Corporation who have Lied from the Beginning Trust them as you would a Rapist or Murderer at Your Own Risk. Trust the Doctors who Definitevely Confirmed that Hydroxy chloroquine works & other Doctors Not the WHO Wuhan Health Organization.

  • About acronym confusion

    Long ago in the pre-internet era in a technical writing course I took, it was strongly emphasized that the writer should assume that some readers may not know the meaning intended for each newly introduced acronym in a manuscript — and that it was mandatory to provide a definition at the time of that first use.

    Since then, really useful tools like this

    have been created to help sort through such confusion. Example: when I ran a search there on the DOM acronym, it told me there were at least 78 possible meanings to sort through. In real estate it could mean Days on Market. In medicine it could mean Doctor of Oriental Medicine, etc, etc, etc. There was no entry for the slur of Dumb Or Mad.

    Sometimes writers forget that some part of their reading audience can’t possibly know what a new-to-them acronym means, but at least there are online tools to help — even if a Q&A [question and answer] isn’t possible or convenient.


    • Per my military training, we were always expected to spell out the full meaning of the word, and then put it into ( ) to show the acronym version.

      Example: Rocket Assisted Projectile (RAP).
      Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM).
      High Altitude, Low Opening (HALO).

      And, to differentiate between differing acronyms in differing fields

      Low Earth Orbit (LEO), vs Law Enforcement Officer (LEO).

  • I understand that there is a political polarisation over Covid19 in the USA. It is a clear and present danger,not only to health,but the economy too.

    I am in England,and if American news is any good,you will know about the city of Leicester. I am three miles North.That city has been locked down again,as the virus is rife again,as people have not been following the rules.

    Over here,if you are known to have contacted with a virus victim,you are locked down for a fortnight minimum. That means half a month of lost wages to start.

    I don’t fear death,but why expose yourself to the chance? It’s a clear and present danger.

    • Dear Paul:

      I apologize if this is a double reply, as my computer froze.

      When you say the “virus is rife,” what do you mean? Does you mean the hospital is overwhelmed and people are dying, or do you mean that many people are being tested as positive and the number of cases is rising?

      When you use the word “victim,” do you mean a person who died, or a person who has a severe symptomatic case…or a person who has tested positive but has a mild case or is asymptomatic??

      Because, Paul, as more testing is done, the case numbers will rise. That does not mean there is actually more virus cases than before. You should also be aware that people who test positive for antibodies (this does not necessarily mean an active case), will be listed in the stats as a case!

      But the point is this: The virus is never going to go away. We will always have it. You can wear a mask and isolate yourself if that makes you feel better. But don’t expect the rest of us to “follow the rules” forever, until there is nothing left of our free society or our civilization! Obedient people with their mouths effectively “shut” by a mask make for a very “clear and present” danger to our freedom!

      Please start gardening and prepping because the “clear and present danger” is that food shortages, economic depression, and civil unrest are on the way!

      You have GROW A SET, Paul! Live your life.

  • Not believing in something doesn’t mean you are not going to be effected by it. I’m not sure why this concept is hard for some. You might not believe in Santa either but there you sit in December in a long store line followed by increased traffic on the way home.
    No we aren’t slacking if anything we have increased our food and updated some equipment. We send each other a weekly e-mails to see what the other has done on a personal level.

    • Love your Santa example Mat in Oklahoma! Yes, this article’s focus is not the virus, but the fallout from it. We can assume that the globalists are using COVID to their benefit even if they aren’t fully in control of it– “Never let a good crisis go to waste”. Things are already breaking down in terms of supply and demand when it comes to food and other essentials, and if you listen to any global economist the financial collapse we are at the edge of will make the crash of ’29 and Great Depression look like nothing. The way I see it folks can either sit around arguing to be right, or they can make sure that they are as prepared on all fronts as possible and try to help/warn others on what lies ahead. Thank you Toby and Daisy!

  • I’ve asked a lot of people this question and none of them have been able to answer it,

    “When the Quarantine Centers are open nationwide later this year how do you prepare for being rounded up and put in one because they Contact Traced you or you tested positive?”

    Any help is appreciated.

    My family has already stopped taking our phones with us when we will be in public areas.
    Worried about the door to door and road check point testing that is sure to come as soon as they have some kind of rapid test available.

    • Good question Ed. I like you am concerned about the FEMA camps. Dave Hodges and Mike Adams have both interviewed Celeste Solum, and Adams also just interviewed a contact tracing whistleblower on all this. This may be where the 2nd Amendment as our last line of defense comes into play.

      • FEMA camps are a Tin-Foil conspiracy.
        There are 350 million people in America, over 4 time zones in the lower 48. You really think there are camps large enough to accommodate even 1% of the population?
        Then there is the logistics factor of providing food, water, and sanitation for that 1%.
        Not realistic.

        What those camps might be for (putting on a big Captain William Bligh [1962] like tinfoil hat) not keeping the undesirable/infected in, but keeping them out.
        Lot simpler to keep those you want to survive a pandemic, vs those you dont want to, that being us unwashed masses, those of us not with a higher education degree, or those who can process a chicken.

        • I’ve been hearing FEMA camps since the 80s lol. Let’s not forget the blue helmets, lizard folks and on and on and on.
          There are literally a hundred real time threats and yet ……

          • @Matt in OK,
            Yeah, the UN Blue Helmets, everything I have read, all the reports I have seen, if it was not for NATO support, they did not amount to much of anything.
            They did try in some areas. But I do recall like 600 of them got captured by mercenaries in Africa at one point in time.
            The UN is a good idea on paper. Deployed real world, not so much.
            Granted a lot of Ramboze wannabes, shake and quake at the idea of UN Blue Helmets in their neighborhoods.

            • Yeah I did a stint with them. It’s a joke. We went and made sure American interest were taken care of properly.
              Corruption is rampant which is gonna happen when you put a “General” in charge of money greater than his countries GDP.

        • What makes you think they are going to feed them? Or offer them toilets and sinks? Did Mao worry about that stuff when he was rounding up his folks? Nope, they were being rounded up and promptly shot and bulldozed over. Why does no one see the similarities here? They are testing us to see how much they can get away with at one go. Reminds me of that Star Trek episode where people’s number was called and they promptly reported to the local ‘death’ chamber. People have been trying to raise alarms, like on the patriot act, for years, but all anyone would do is point and laugh and say “another conspiracy nut’. Almost none of the people I voted for got elected. We are too far down the rabbit hole to try to climb out now.

    • Ed, that is probably the most intelligent question I’ve seen here in many months. I have for the most part quit posting replies, simply because it is difficult to converse with people when they dismiss high quality knowledge/wisdom/research with low quality beliefs & opinions. The conversation is simply a waste of time.

      This entire pandemic scenario has been published, previewed, practiced, messaged, hidden in plain sight, leaked, whistle blown (etc) and explained in great detail. Many times! I can show you 1954 documents that describe what we are going through now. 1979 Documents. 1921 documents. 2005 & 2010 videos that explain it. A 2015 TED talk (Gates) that strongly hints of what’s to come based on what he has personally funded. A 2017 Interview by Fauci announcing the pandemic scenario. 2019 Whistleblower leaks of specific details, plans, timeline, and the agenda (Which cost the WB his life). Patents that show Gates and Fauci (et al) will reap enormous profits from the mandatory vaccine. And yet very few are able to get their head wrapped around events or understand the news in context. Consequently, they live in fear and uncertainty, and have to react to events rather than calmly prepare.

      To answer your question: Do all the case development you can with respect to your medical and vaccination records. Establish all of your criteria for not wanting to be vaccinated, such as Religious, Health, and Conscientious Objector, etc. If it will help make you feel better, have your attorney review your documents as well as your physician(s). Create your best version of a “DO NOT VACCINATE” Passport – and that includes “DO NOT TEST for COVID-19.” (a percent of the tests are contaminated.) Keep that DNV Passport with you at all times.

      You are aware that there are 4 COVID-19 protocols that have 100% Cure rates? 3 of the 4 have zero side effects, and one has minor heart rhythm effects. Likewise there are multiple prophylactic (nutrition) measures to keep you from catching COVID-19, and NONE of them have anything to do with wearing Masks and Social Distancing, or destroying the economic health & wealth of the working population! LoL – if a Mask was effective, then we could all just go back to work, yes?

      No opinions and no theories here. Just well researched information, forensic evidence, and historical analysis.

      Ok, back to your question as to what to do: The DNV Passport will not protect you in any way when you are approached by a well meaning contact tracer or government official at a checkpoint. The laws will void ALL vaccine exemptions, regardless of the consequences to your health. So they ARE going to vaccinate you with the RFID Chip, and/or attempt to swab you with a COVID-19 test.

      The DNV Passport is what you show the Judge as your basis for using lethal force to defend yourself and your family.

  • A number of us preppers have noted this is not going to be a one and done kinda thing.
    Unfortunately, us Americans (most, but not all) seemed to have extremely short memory spans or have the ‘My way, right away’ mentality, and expect everything to go back to “normal,” by next week.
    Not going to happen.

    There are the 1st order effects: You get COVID19, you get sick. If you are under 70s, few or no pre-existing conditions, likely it will be a mild version of the flu. You recover after a few days or week or so. Self-quarantine, watch and monitor the family members accordingly.

    2nd and 3rd order effects: If you were in the food and bev industry, your lively hood just went out the window with the shutdown.
    Landloard renting to a food and bev worker, might be out of rent for one or more months. That might put you behind in the payment note to the bank or if you own the property and count on that rent to pay for your own house payment or retirement, you might be screwed.

    Regardless, as preppers, you need to think not only with the short term, but the long term.
    A year from now, we might all be sitting pretty much in the same position as we are now: Self-isolation, masks, social distancing.
    Will there be a second wave? Or just a continuation of the first wave?
    Will it mutate into something worse or not so bad? Magic 8-Ball says, “Future un-clear.”
    There is only so much you can do about the 1st order effects of this thing.
    It is the 2nd and 3rd order effects that just might be worse from a economic, or a society point of view.

    How do you insulate you and yours from those impacts is the question and to what degree you have control over them?
    COVID19 disruptions to the meatpacking industry has shown how fragile our system is.
    How do you plan if what few cuts are available in the meat section is going for 3, or 10 times the pre-COVID price? If you have been out of work for 3 or more months?
    Sure. I will sell you a chicken for $15. What is that? Well, yes, it is still live. Slaughter and processing is another $10.

  • Awesome article! Thank you. I was saying this the other day. We need to step back and asses the whole situation. Not just the virus but the whole picture.

  • About chicken butchering

    Long before the zillions of demo videos on YouTube that teach how to butcher chickens and prep them for cooking, I learned how to behead a chicken with one whack of a hatchet against the wooden top of a homemade sawhorse. Then I dropped the headless chicken into a bucket so it could finish up its headless jerking without getting sand and dirt mixed in with the blood on the feathers. Once that was over, boiling water went into the bucket to loosen up the feathers for much easier plucking. Then my Mom took over. She showed me how much care was needed to cut out the dark gall bladder without getting any of the liquid spilled on the rest of the chicken — which would contaminate it and make the entire effort wasted. The same drill applies for a duck, a goose, a guinea, a pheasant, etc. We had a lot of wonderful memorable Thanksgiving and Christmas dinners.

    These days you just run a search on YouTube for BUTCHER CHICKEN to get a very long list of demo videos — at least until you lose electric power…


    • A windshield wiper fluid jug with the top and base trimmed off screwed upside down to a post makes for clean bleeding. You stuff the chicken in hanging upside down, whack it’s head off against the post and the jug holds the body while it drains and quivers. Nice n clean.

      • Not a very nice ending for the chicken or humane to stuff him whilst alive into a windshield wiper jug. Unlike factory farms those that do their own slaughtering can at least chose to do it in a way that makes it less terrifying for the animal about to be killed. Sure blood everywhere and a quivering body are a bit shall we say inconvenient but at least you know you did right by the chicken and did not add to it’s suffering.

  • I found this to be a very thought provoking article.

    My life was not so majorly affected by the initial lockdowns, as my job was considered ‘essential’. Yeah, the store shelves emptied quickly, but we were prepared. And working in a grocery store, I was able to pick up some things that folks weren’t initially thinking of getting, in order to stock up just a little bit more. I was planning to do mostly container gardening this year, but luckily had seeds enough to do an in ground garden as well.

    A subject only one or two other folks replied with was what you can do to boost your immune systems to help avoid not only this virus, but any illness. Some of it may be common sense to some, but it may be helpful information to others.

    Cook from scratch, at home, and do your best to source local. Farmers markets or developing relationships with local farmers can help you source non GMO and possibly organic fruits/veg/meats, at better prices than buying from grocery stores. Learn how to store such food long term. Organic can be pricey. What items can you ‘live without’ in order to be able to afford it? Think about the 80/20 rule, where you focus on mostly ‘good stuff’ but allow for some ‘not so good’ stuff.

    Think about the vitamins and minerals your body needs. Supplements are not always the answer, but in my humble opinion, they don’t hurt, as long as you know what you are doing. I take a multivitamin every day. I supplement Vitamin D in the winter months as I live up north, but in the summer, I spend as much time out in the sun as I can. If you decide to take supplements, make sure they are in a bioavailible form, and know what other supplements can help your body absorb them most readily (this also applies to food sources of vitamins/minerals/etc. IE the fact that rice and beans together are an almost perfect source of protein when meat is not available or not your thing).

    Learn about foraging in your area. I am by no means an expert in this area, just learning. A lot of ‘common weeds’ have both nutritional and medicinal properties.

    And speaking of medicine and personal care…consider learning courses on herbalism and homeopathy. Make sure you have at least first aid and basic CPR training. If you can, take advanced courses, there are many good wilderness and advanced medical training courses available out there. I

    Invest in some good hardcover books on all the topics you need to read up on, just in case we don’t have a reliable grid. Daisy has some good book recommendations here on the site, just search for them.

    I think Toby is correct, we need to look at the long term ramifications of our current situation, whether it revolves around the virus or not. Things have changed, like it or not. I don’t want to deal with a ‘new normal’, but it is here. Accept, Adapt. But never give up your freedoms.

  • Daisy Thank You for Always bringing Excellent Articles to Us. I have noticed that You are by Far the Best provider of Good, Solid, Well Thought Out & Practical Prepping. Please continue your Superior work because I do Believe that You are a Life Saver. Cheers!

  • Sounds just like the typical bullshit we hear on all the networks. “A second wave” “It’s our fault we’re coming out of lock down” “Gathering together” The sky is falling, blah blah blah! Bullshit!

  • It would also be wise, when stocking up, to remember, electricity is a luxury that could be lost as well. Attacks on our power grid is becoming more than just talk now days.

  • Possibly the “prepper community” had shrunk a bit now as the availability of resources is still being impacted and the ability to purchase resources has taken a hit as well. Concurrently, the “just maintaining community” has grown, and many have likely moved into the “spiraling down community” as the result of job loss.

    COVID-19 was not as severe as we were indoctrinated to believe. That doesn’t matter much when we are dealing with the results of lock-downs, quarantines, economic closures, and draconian rules and regs forced on citizens by over-reaching government officials. But COVID-19 is not all we will be dealing with. (Wish it were) Large cities across America are burning. Lives are being destroyed… and taken. Marxists are in our streets with the idea they can topple this Republic and force upon the rest of us some perverse, fascist system and those whom were elected to ensure and preserve life, liberty, and the our pursuit of happiness are doing NOTHING to stop the violence and destruction.

    The absence of shelter, water, and food will all lead to a person’s death, and in that order. I liken COVID-19 to the food. Economic collapse (shelter) and Marxist violence (water) will kill us quicker.

  • The 5th of July, I talked to my 3 younger sisters about getting their food, water and such ready for another possible lock down in October. Yes, I told them October.
    I got told by my youngest sister that I was making it political. I told her OK, if I’m wrong, I’ll MAYBE apologize for saying October. But she STILL needs to get prepared regardless of WHEN they do another lock down, but I doubt she will. She thinks I’m a nut case about being prepared anyway.
    I’m doing my best to get hubby and I prepared, PLUS having extra to share with family only…. including my sisters. I may be broke, but I’ll be prepared for the worst and praying for the best!

  • Although I have personally been from the very beginning very sceptical about the severity of the whole Covid-19 pandemic, I do agree with almost everything being said here. It is clear that there is going to be a second wave and by the recent experiences with how most people behave, I expect things to get worse. Not even taking the mortality rate of the virus into account, unemployment and financial problems, shortage of supplies, fear and panic as well frustration and anger will do their part. Crime and violence will rise dramatically and one should now prepare for what is coming to hit us soon. Great article Toby ????

  • Family in Italy: healthy father in law unresponsive, taken to hospital, died from COVID 19. Family not allowed to say goodbye. Had to wear HAZMAT suits to his funeral.

    Family in NYC: several of their friends died and sickened by COVID 19

    Here in SE US: Around here, some people saying plandemic, some still won’t wear mask n a significant percentage will not (thru ignorance or stubbornness) wear them properly. It’s improving tho. Our county has been low but rising in COVID 19 numbers. Next door county and some other surrounding counties much higher.

  • Don’t you even get it yet? This is agenda 21 in operation, us against them, WW3 is not a war nation against nation it’s a war on us the people, you and me, the signs are there, The Georgia guide stones, they been using fluoride, Chemtrails, G.M.O’s and they will continue to hack at us until our numbers fall, the world is run by satanist who are hell bent on our destruction!

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