What Would a COMPLETE Supply Chain Breakdown Really Look Like?

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by Aden Tate

Cyber Polygon 2020 examined the threat of a complete supply chain breakdown. But what does that mean? Is it just no more toilet paper? Or is it something more sinister?

Perhaps we can shed some light on the situation here.

Food

According to the American Red Cross, most Americans have less than three days’ worth of food in their homes. After three days with no food, starvation begins to set in. 

Grocery stores rely on just-in-time systems to get their food to their customers. On average, this means that a grocery store has roughly a week’s worth of food within its four walls at any given time. However, remember that this is a week’s worth of food in normal circumstances. As the 2020 toilet paper situation showed, once people fear they can’t get more of something, they stock up. Therefore, a week’s worth of food at the grocery store can be gone in a matter of days or hours

Grocery stores get their food from regional food distribution warehouses. Typically, these locations have a month’s food supply present for all the stores in their area. Due to the increased demand from local grocery stores, this supply would likely vaporize within two weeks. One would enter a grocery store only to find it nothing other than bare shelves.

As previously reported by The Organic Prepper, food shortages are a reality. You do not have much time left before the items you can grab now are gone and gone for good. Here are some tips for shopping when there aren’t many supplies left on the shelves, and here’s a list of things that are usually imported from China that we haven’t been receiving in the same quantities (if at all) since the crisis began.

Gas

Further compounding situations would be the inability of truckers to deliver goods to the intended recipients. Semi-trucks with no fuel mean a complete failure for the city’s food supplies. After the aforementioned three-day food window, a significant majority of people in urban areas would begin to go hungry.

Here’s a previously published piece on just how fast things could go sideways in America in only 5 days without trucks moving supplies across the country. JUST THIS ONE THING could change the world as we know it.

On average, food travels 1500 miles from the farm until it reaches your plate. Imagine the implications of such. Cities would not have the food they need to live without the necessary fuel to get the food to the people. Violent riots would likely be the result not long afterward.

Medicine

From a healthcare standpoint, a post-SHTF world looks quite grim. Shortages at the pump would make it much more difficult for healthcare workers to arrive at their jobs. Rationing of gas would likely be given priority to nurses, doctors, ambulances, and police officers. However, many patients would not be able to even get to the hospital. Effectively stranded in their homes, people would be unable to seek access to healthcare. Perhaps even afraid to due to the extent of the riots right outside their doors.

Due to gasoline shortages, necessary supplies wouldn’t show up to hospitals either. Surgeons would be unable to perform procedures due to a lack of saline, gloves, sterile tools, etc. Likewise, pharmacists would soon run out of their medicine stores. Once they run out, that would be it.

Emergency Services

As mentioned, healthcare workers would already have a difficult enough time making their way to work. They wouldn’t be the only ones, however. While police officers would likely be given priority with gas supplies, there is still an excellent chance they would not be able to do their jobs effectively.

The number of emergency calls would skyrocket as crime and health emergencies would increase. There is also the possibility that many police officers, paramedics, nurses, firemen, and so on would refuse to show up for their shifts.

Suppose violent riots are going on outside and widespread looting and home invasions occur as people search for food, water, and whatever else they want. In that case, some people will feel compelled to ensure that their families are safe first, necessitating their staying at home.

Electricity

This one is harder to put the finger on. There are a vast number of means by which power stations stay operational. Gasoline is one of those. As already noted, should there be a gasoline shortage, there will be an electricity shortage at gas-operated plants.

Would power plant workers feel compelled to stay home rather than attend work? Would other necessary gear be delivered to the power plants in time for them to function effectively? There are many what-ifs here that can’t be nailed down as wholly (at least by me).

Either way, it’s highly likely electricity won’t be anywhere near as plentiful as it is right now.

What Can You Do to Prepare for Such an Event?

One of the great things about prepping is that it’s so versatile. While your original intent may have been just to prep for three months of potential unemployment, your preps will also serve to help you with hurricane season, civil unrest, EMP, and more.

Prepping is a single decision that has broad implications, including a complete supply chain breakdown. That said, there’s no reason not to begin prepping. I highly recommend reading some of the available resources in The OP Learning Center, Online Classroom, and Bookstore. 

And if you’re looking to learn more about how a complete supply chain breakdown works, I recommend reading: Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States. It will give you a thorough look at how everything is intertwined.

So do what you can to prepare, regardless of whether or not you’re concerned about a complete supply breakdown or not. It’s genuinely too versatile of a habit not to do so.

What are your thoughts?

Do you think we could be facing a complete supply chain breakdown? What factors do you believe would be the tipping point? If so, are you changing the way you prep at all? Let’s discuss it in the comments.

About Aden

Aden Tate has a master’s in public health and is a regular contributor to PewPewTactical.com, SurvivalBlog.com, SHTFBlog.com, ApartmentPrepper.com, HomesteadAndPrepper.com, and PrepperPress.com. Along with being a freelance writer he also works part-time as a locksmith. Aden has an LLC for his micro-farm where he raises dairy goats, a pig, honeybees, meat chickens, laying chickens, tomatoes, mushrooms, and greens. Aden has two published books, The Faithful Prepper and Zombie Choices. You can find his podcast The Last American at Preppers’ Broadcasting Network.

What Would a COMPLETE Supply Chain Breakdown Really Look Like?
Aden Tate

Aden Tate

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85 Responses

  1. On a recent trip from San Diego to Oregon we saw about 8,500 trucks on the road in our 10 hour trip home on a Monday. They’re hauling something in those trucks, so don’t tell us that our economy is not coming back with a bang. That many trucks on the road tells us that the hysterics are lying.

    In the California San Juaquin Valley there is a Cattle Feed Lot which has thousands,(not hundreds, but thousands) of beef cattle just waiting to go to market. AND NO, they are not going to kill them and dump them into a pit. No one is that stupid.

    You are getting screwed at your local market, because it is not the ranchers or the retail out lets who are making all the profit from this lying idiocy. It is the meat processors who are inflating the price of all meats because no one is monitoring what they are doing. They’re paying the ranchers less for their cattle, and charging more to the retail outlets selling meat. THE LIES ARE SCREWING YOU ROYAL AND MOST HAVE NO IDEA HOW TO COUNTER THE MANIPULATION.

    Corporations who are taking financial advantage during this fake plandemic should be taken to task and forced to pay “wind-fall” taxes as punitive punishment for trying to screw the people during one of our most trying times as a nation !!!

      1. “Let’s talk in a few months”

        been hearing that for twelve years now. “yeah but real soon (fill in the blank).”

        1. People had your attitude about ammo too. Once the supply on hand dried up, there wasn’t anything on the helves to buy. I’ve read more than one post from people who said they wished they would’ve stocked up when ammo was available and cheap. BTW, nothing tastes as bad as eating your own words.

          1. ammo is indeed an exception to that (surprised you didn’t mention toilet paper too). however the “shortage” lasted less than a year and prices are coming down. but for the most part all the predictions of imminent collapse just keep getting rolled over year after year. go back to the beginnings of just this blog (or any prepper blog) and re-live all the imminent doom.

            I hear all the doom, I understand all the logic and reasons and principles. dude, I grew up during the cold war where “the end of the world!” (and not just mere economic collapse and mass rioting and mass starvation) was a real thing that could genuinely happen any minute, I know all about “prepping” and “survival” (remember survivalists?). just not seeing the modern version, is all. lotta talk, no beef.

            1. Umm we still don’t have ammo locally.(small town Michigan) The stores have been out for over a year. I mean if you get to the store right when the delivery truck does and they have your caliber you might be able to buy a box and it is still a lot higher priced than it used to be. So where is this magical ammo available at?

              1. “So where is this magical ammo available at?”

                sounds more like a local demand problem rather than an overall supply problem …

                “small town”

                … or just that.

              2. RIGHT NOW FARM AND HOME SUPPLY HAS A LOT OF STEEL CASED TULA AND WOLF AMMO IN 7.62X39, .223, 9MM, .480, 45 ACP, AND SOME SHOTGUN SHELLS. A LOT OF .22LR TOO. I CAN’T FIND 16 GAUGE 1 1/8 OZ 5 SHOT ANYWHERE!

              3. Colleen be patient because I’m actually seeing it now on shelves in the cities. Not everything but some. Prices are still higher though

            2. You’re so pitifully cynical. Why not go elsewhere and leave this excellent, informative blog alone? You are so toxic and pathetic. Your comments are always negative. Give the rest of us a break, OK?

              1. “You are so toxic and pathetic”

                if you can’t handle me, how are you going to handle grid down?

                as I’ve said before, if the blog owner asks me to stop posting I will.

                1. You don’t have to stop posting, Ant, but you need to learn to get along with others. Instead of going through and attacking posts, maybe couch your criticism with some useful advice if you have knowledge on the topic. It’s like you literally go through and pounce on every single comment and for the life of me, I can’t understand why you’d do that. You could be a valuable member of the community if you’d make even the smallest attempt at getting along. Try positivity. You might be surprised how much more influence and sense of belonging you have.

          2. Ammo is available in huge amounts.
            You have to order it online but it’s there.
            I ordered another thousand rounds yesterday $0.31per
            so not excessive.

          3. I think the ammo shortage only showed how fragile our JIT/BAU system is.
            Sure, now there is supply and prices are coming down.
            It has only been a year and a half.
            Imagine a disruption of the grid and the internet is down for days or weeks.
            Or take the Colonial pipeline ransomeware attack. Had it been really bad and gone on for weeks, how long would it take my ammo order to get here from Midway? Or Grafs?

        2. There is a man… a musician… that once sang in a song that “…you don’t have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing”. No one knows when the balloon will pop. But if someone continues to pump air into the balloon we know it WILL pop! Been hearing all this for twelve years, you say. Are you better off and more secure now than 12 years ago? I would guess not.

          1. “Been hearing all this for twelve years, you say.”

            I do. (heh. remember when silver was $45 and on it’s way to $450?)

            “Are you better off and more secure now than 12 years ago? I would guess not.”

            no change.

            1. Yes, lets cherry pick our data! Fools bought into the 2011-2013 bull metals market! I am now better off than I was 12 years ago! My metals have doubled, I bought my house AFTER the crash, have a small mortage that I can pay off if needed.

        3. Dude, you must be young. “Been hearing that…” line is no longer valid. The boy who cried wolf, what happened to him in the end? Dude, this ain’t your grandma’s calamity! This is world-wide with the Government’s blessing and participation.
          I assume you do not own gold or silver in physical form because “you have heard that they will shoot to the moon” for years now, right?

      2. Inflation is already here. Grocery bills are higher than normal 2-3% inflation. We are paying far more for the same thing.
        More than a few companies have announced they were shrinking the sizes of their products, while keeping them at the same price.

    1. It IS true that a handful of corporations control the vast majority of meat processing in this country. But instead of ranting and raving about “wind falls” and “punitive punishment”, how’s about advocating for actual solutions that will actually DO something? And right now, not next year.

      True story: in April 2020, I promised my boys I would make them french toast for lunch; something to take their minds off how they were suddenly doing school from home. We went out to our local grocery store, and they had NO EGGS. Ditto for the next place, and the next one, and the one after that. I FINALLY found some eggs that were $8 a dozen, which made me channel my dad, and I swear these exact words came out of my mouth:

      “What, are ya gonna come over and cook them for me?”

      But here’s the thing: those eggs had ALWAYS been that price. So instead of continuing to grumble like an old man with hemorrhoids, I DID SOMETHING ABOUT IT. I went home, made my boys some dammed french toast, then I went online, and looked around for local farmers. And I found a couple who are decent and reliable. I just bought four dozen eggs from one of them just the other day. They cost more than eggs at the store, but if there’s ever a time that the stores don’t have any at all, one of those local farmers will most likely still have some for me.

      One of these farmers also introduced me to a friend of his who raises beef cows. I had never heard of buying an eighth of a cow before, but I did just that a few months ago. He’s not a big operator, and he doesn’t have a lot of cows, but on the flip side, maybe he will remember loyal customers who bought from him when so many others deluded themselves that everything is “back to normal”

      Bottom line: you can fix the blame, or you can fix the problem. I prefer to FIX THE PROBLEM, which is why I have eggs in my fridge and steaks in my chest freezer

    2. There are a ton of semis moving stuff out there for sure. My trip to and back from Tennessee Cumberland Gap area was wall to wall. I took 2 different paths and both were just as busy.

      There wasn’t a single place that you didn’t wait in line to refuel anywhere off the highways. Folks are out and about spending money.

      The influx of cattle into the market is not unpredicted either. They are selling off because of the drought. Other markets like here are about average in fluctuation.

      1. -Matt in OK,
        Yes, I have read about and heard from ranchers saying they were sell off their herds due to the drought, rising feed costs.
        The upside was supposed to be lower beef prices, but that has not happened.
        Just read of a potential derecho storm could hit the corn belt.
        Not better.

    3. As Aden aptly explained, all of those trucks moving represents about a month or two of the supply chain. While there is movement and supply now, that means nothing in 2-3 months.

      Also, keep in mind that corporations do not actually pay taxes. They are a pass-through. Whatever they pay to the government comes directly from higher prices charged to customers or lower wages paid to employees.

  2. Another great resource is Selco. Read his books about what a complete breakdown looked like for him. At the very least it’s a fascinating history, at best, a good roadmap. From what I’ve read, the residents stuck in Sarajevo had nothing. There was no electricity, no city services such as sewer or garbage removal, no ambulance or hospital services, no central grid for heating. They were basically back to the 19th century or so as far as standard of living. And yes, it can happen here. Some believe we’re in the middle of a slow-burning SHTF fundamental shift. No more time for procrastination!

    One thing Selco emphasizes is skills over stuff. I try to remember that no pile of goodies will last forever. We take our skills with us wherever we go, and some of them may be tradable.

  3. Finally went to my local Walmart just last week. At the height of the pandemic, I was ordering most items online and having my groceries delivered.
    But my recent trip to Walmart was an eyeopener. The shelves were sparse. This Walmart is not a super center. It is just a smaller Walmart that has only a few aisles of foodstuffs.
    What surprised me what the lack of non-food items. Cleaning supplies, straws, light bulbs, etc.
    And it just wasn’t like there were a lot of cars in the parking lot either.
    I consider this shortage of everything an indication of the major hurt we will be in.
    Maybe I should write “the major hurt we are already in.”

    1. KathleenJ,

      I concur. Last week (mid July 2021) was in a Walmart Supercenter and noted the empty shelves. Now this particular store is and has been poorly managed for years but the empty spots were very evident. And not just in food and cleaning and personal care items, it was in office supply, toys, sporting goods etc.

      1. Walmart Supercenter PA – same – also large empty sections, some in cleaning products, candy section, pet food and this has been across numerous visits the last few months. There have been things I have been looking for several times – common items – a particular type of mainstream hot sauce, and a popular espresso and they have not had them for a while. This is the first time I have seen this apart from in huge snowstorms.

    2. Someone in trucking that I know said Wal-Mart is having a very hard time keeping truck drivers that is why they are having supply issues. A regional store in town that is similar to WalMart in design is not having the amount of bare shelves as WM is. They even have a fully stocked canning supply section. I have seen shortages of random supplies throughout the summer.

    3. I went to a larger local store a few weeks ago and had a similar epiphany in the cat food aisle. There was almost nothing there! Purina Friskies was in especially low supply, which is what I used to feed my three cats. That brand is made in China. Economy sized OTC medicines were also in short supply. TP and other paper products were well stocked but expensive.

      I’m so glad to live in farm country! I’m also happy to hang out at home and fill my pantry. No stash will last forever but putting up my own is cheaper, healthier, and personally satisfying.

  4. I read the section about Emergency Services and was reminded that there is an article this morning on Fox News website about how difficult it is to get 911 and emergency services to respond because so many first responders have quit in Austin, TX.

  5. I was just thinking how a variety of things are hard to find – not just basics, but I went to 4 different stores looking for shop-vac bags. They had them for industrial size, but couldn’t find for small one. Not a huge crisis, but odd.

  6. I call it the new socialism. I have seen bare shelves in the grocery and the retail department stores are even more shocking – inventory is way down and prices are exorbitant. I was in Kohl’s that used to be packed with inventory so much so that you could barely walk between the racks. Yesterday, you could have driven a smart car between racks. Don’t even talk about Lowe’s where mulch is rationed or unavailable and plants are first come, first served. Building materials are still expensive and appliances and furniture have months long delivery dates.

    It is all part of a plan to ease us into socialism and. Communism. Breadlines are fun!

    1. Yep, you’re certainly observant. Until now, our society has reserved socialism for the ultra-rich. Now that the working classes might get a little of that benefit, many short-sighted folks who’ve drunk the kool-aid are extremely determined that we shouldn’t allow justice for all. Privilege for the wealthy, and poverty for the rest of us.
      If you look at Cuba, ignoring for the moment the insanity in their streets (what’s the difference between their riots and ours?), they’ve produced a really fair society for the most part (yeah, they have some flaws. Who doesn’t?) but great health care for all, a life expectancy substantially greater than ours, and this despite the US having maliciously punished them unjustifiably for the last 60 years. If we’d only treated them fairly, not blockaded them, not prevented them access to the same goods that we allow traded all over the rest of the horrible world, they’d probably be way better off than we are. In fact, in some ways they already are, as I just mentioned.
      Socialism, Capitalism, Communism, Despotism…. the labels mean little. What counts is how nations care for their populations. Or in simpler terms, how neighbor helped neighbor, which used to be a prime value in the farm region I grew up in. And Cuba has done the best she could despite our rampant and long-standing horrible abuses of her nation, and therefore to her population. And before we engaged in this unjustified horror, US gangs had taken over her cities and her economy, which is how Castro rose to power in the first place, rebelling against the outrages of US dominance and that corrupt governance supported by us. We overthrow countries whenever we feel like. And rarely – perhaps never – does much good come from our awful impositions. Iran? We created that mess for ARAMCO. Guatemala? We encouraged the massacre of natives so United Fruit could have free land and cheap labor. Remind me again of how moral & righteous Capitalism is, and how wonderful the outcomes of our attacks have proven to be for the citizens we murder, or whom we encourage their local dictators to murder. You’re right about one thing: It’s all about the money. Money for the wealthy & the politically powerful. And to hell with the rest of us.

      1. Are you insane? Healthcare!?! Try getting a doctor or heart surgery or even basic dental treatment in Cuba. Let me know how that goes. More fair? To whom? The ultra Elites in Cuba live fairly well-that is the Presidente & his cronies. If all else fails-they go to Europe for treatment. Just like the wealthy Venezuelans still shop Prada. Otherwise, the other classes eat their pets or starve. The Cubans, who have ZERO ability to protect themselves, are willing to sacrifice jail or their lives to get away from Marxism.

      2. Oh, like communism is so moral and righteous. Their leaders have managed to kill hundreds of millions of people this last century.

        Don’t give me sh*t how good communism is. It’s MISERY to everyone that lives there except for those running the country to the ground.

        Communists have taken over America (unbelievably) and look how miserable everybody is.

        1. Agreed, I have never heard of anyone who actually has a real lived experience of anything close to Communism/Marxism/Socialism say anything positive about it, and in fact they are more likely to so desperate to flee from it that they will risk their lives. The only people who see it as a path to utopia and justice are students in classrooms designing sociology projects or intellectuals reading books and opinion pieces in their heated/air conditioned studies.

          1. well the ones in control of communist countries think it’s great. and for them, it is. recall bernie sanders taking his honeymoon vacation in the soviet union. for him it was a millennial paradise. literally.

        2. WE HAVE TO IMPEACH BIDEN AND HARRIS AND PELOSI AS THEY SHOW UP FOR THE BRASS RING !!
          That is the only way we are going to stop socialism PERIOD!!

    2. I took my son shopping at Kohl’s a few weeks ago for the first time in over a year. I realized while we were there, that they had rearranged the departments. Then I realized it wasn’t necessarily that – but they had spaced everything out to make it look like the store was as stocked as it used to be. I’d guess that they had about half what they had before the pandemic.

      My local grocery store, Food Lion, still looks like it did last spring. Juice pouches and Powerade completely out. Ice cream section empty. Bread aisle sparse. Just a couple of examples.

  7. S safery
    H heat
    T transportation
    F food

    Food is nr 1
    Weekly ratio minimum:
    1 lb protein
    3 lb carbs
    3 oz fats
    1 oz salt
    2 gal water

  8. “Suppose violent riots are going on outside and widespread looting and home invasions occur as people search for food, water, and whatever else they want. In that case, some people will feel compelled to ensure that their families are safe first, necessitating their staying at home.”

    So, two things:
    First: cops work only when it’s safe and they’re the only ones that are the real danger?
    Secondly: that would be true, except for history. Over and over, we’ve seen the cops loot along with the rioters.

    You live in a world where you don’t have to deal with cops. I was in the FDNY EMS for about a decade. They are the danger. I’ve NEVER seen them help or prevent a crime. I’ve had to protect my patients many times, because now that I made patient contact, if they die, it’s on me!
    They show up after, and call us to clean up the mess. I didn’t realize the real deal, because I didn’t have any contact with the police. The more you get to see what they do, the more you understand the cops are the criminals. At least in NYC, because guess what, I’ll believe my lying eyes.

  9. As far as fuel and emergency services:
    Most hospitals have limited fuel for their generators. Usually just what’s in them.

    Prisons can usually go longer. Most folks don’t think bout that. Whatya do with thousands of criminals?

    Police and sheriff’s are normally filling up just like the rest of us. Response out here will be short lived because counties are large in square miles in many places. It’s a tank of gas or more a day.

    Probably won’t be a lot of response on bursting pipes, water treatment, blowing transformers, wrecks, towing etc.

    1. “Prisons can usually go longer. Most folks don’t think bout that.”

      or the indian reservations. white society goes primitive, them redskins will be out and about.

      but those are small change. the big issue is loss of power to nuclear waste storage sites. THAT is a very big deal.

    2. -Matt in OK,
      Out here, response time is about 20 minutes at best.
      Things go badly, I dont expect them at all.
      But that is kinda a given as it is.

  10. All interesting.
    One really needs to get down to buying local as much as possible and determining what can be done without. Most of our food is purchased locally and preservation is a key point here as well.
    The air would certainly be cleaner without all those vehicles on the road 🙂
    Also, don’t forget about stockpiling for your animals. If you have livestock you had better secure forage supplies NOW! There will be a serious shortage of hay this year due to drought in the West/MidWest. Many are already thinning beef herds by hundreds. Between the grain costs going up and hay shortage there is no good way to feed all those beefers.
    Most of all-don’t panic! A panicked mind cannot make good decisions. Prepare before things escalate to a crisis level. Once it gets to that point the time to prep is past.

    1. “determining what can be done without”

      in all the years I’ve been on prepper boards I’ve only once heard anyone discuss shoes or clothing. when I mention it no-one responds at all. guess people have decided that when the jeans wear out they’ll just go celtic and paint themselves blue.

      1. Good point. The thing that wears out on us the fastest are footwear and winter gear, especially the kids and teens stuff. Unless you can buy really high end outerwear that age range seems designed to last less than one season if you do any kind of work in them. Same with most women’s gear.
        Kinda stuck in the budget department with the shoes and outer wear.

      2. About 20 pair jeans from goodwill, all the socks shirts winter/summer clothing necessary.
        I have 2 new pair unused boots, 3 pair I use..
        I stupidly assume people just have these things, anyone that even loosely refers to themselves as preppers should have those items.

      3. I’ve mentioned clothes and foot wear over the years. I’ve said to buy a couple of sets of clothes a couple of sizes bigger so you can look like you’ve lost weight when you’re actually eating well because you put away food.

        I keep a few totes of miscellaneous clothing around even though they are too big. Jeans and cottons end up in the shop as ‘rags’, but they are still useable as work around the property clothes.

        I have several pairs of combat and work boots. I’ve always suggested people have at least two pairs of good boots and two pairs of good shoes, more is better.

        The problem with painting yourself blue with woad is that it is a mild hallucigin.

      4. I would suggest that you try to buy items now that you can afford that you know that you will need over the next couple of years.
        Most if not all clothing items including shoes are manufactured overseas, and a lot in China. If there are further Covid or any other shutdowns availability will again be limited. Same goes for supply disruptions.
        My feeling is that you can bet that there will be supply issues going forward for at least the next few years on all sorts of things, but I’ve been flogging that horse all along.
        Other than stockpiling what you can easily get now, learn to make repairs to the stuff you’ve already got, and get things like needles, thread, zippers, buttons, et al , plus some good reference materials.
        Check second hand sources for deals on clothing, bedding, towels, etc. You will also want to get kid’s clothing and shoes. What your own little ones can’t wear perhaps you can trade for other things.
        We have to get creative and think outside the box. Learn also about repurposing items.

  11. People panic buy at even a hint of trouble. There was a run in the UK recently because of some tweets their health dept. put out about a potential 10 day stay at home order. Stores were stripped. I don’t understand not keeping a weeks worth of food at home. I guess it comes from living rural. I also grew up where my dad got paid every other week so we only shopped every other week. I only shop once a week. With my stash I can go without even doing that if I had to. Worked out great a while back when we were all down sick around shopping day.

    1. I have plenty but if I herd of a lockdown affecting me directly I’d likely head out for a junkfood run.. fill gas tanks, the grill tanks if they needed it.

      I see it as more of a call to get things done I may have been putting off.

      But lockdowns don’t affect me largely .. essential workers and all.

  12. I’ve never heard of any power plants running on gasoline to generate electricity. Gas-powered plants use natural gas. That being said, the author is correct about gasoline shortages possibly preventing power plant employees from getting to work. Also rioting, etc. In South Africa recently one power plant was actually destroyed by rioters. Let’s pray that the power stays on, as for most of us loss of power for an extended period will mean no water.

  13. I work in the brewing industry and have contact with a lot of 3rd party carrier drivers. Even in shorline New England it is looking grim. Not enough drivers, not enough supplies, not enough small business to spike demand for weekly and even bi-weekly deliveries. People are really starting to wake up to this issue, but I fear that it’s a bit late for most of them. Thankfully my lady and I have had the foresight to spend the last 3 years dumping all of our spare quatloos in to food, medical supplies, tools, ammo, clothing and other various odds and ends. Some of it spread around to very trusted friends’ houses for GTFO moments, too. Only problem for us is we have a two year old son. Makes some things a little more difficult. But we shall persevere. No reason and no want to quit or give up. As a suggestion to all that may read this, if you haven’t done so now, buy extra pairs of boots, shoes and socks. You’ll never make it far if you don’t take care of your feet. May you all stay healthy, happy and safe. God bless.

  14. There is a great deal of talk about another variant virus that’s suppose to hit in October? I know some that are trying to get ready. Really? How does anyone know? Quite a few people truly believe, it’s a ploy to have everyone home again. So when the elections happen in November, they can bring back the mail in voting. My brother-n-law is the produce manager at our local grocery store. He confirms that they’re not getting everything that’s ordered from week to week.

  15. the first people to see and experience a complete supply chain breakdown will be the rural areas. the urban areas, with all the votes and money and supply route destinations, will be the last.

  16. I have trained myself to last a long time. The average American has not. I have gone weeks without food. I am a little larger than “slender”. The “average American is border-line obese, however durability is not based on body fat, but attitude.

    Food is not too much of an issue because I can forage, but the real problem are those with addictions (food, nicotine, drugs, anger….). Have supplies on hand for your neighbors (“here is some corn for you and your family. You will need to crack, and grind the corn, and then prepare it, but it will keep you alive. In exchange for preserving your life you will need to be on watch from 12:00 -04:00, split firewood, etc..”).

    1. “In exchange for preserving your life you will need to be on watch from 12:00 -04:00, split firewood, etc”

      dude, you sound like fun. good luck.

  17. “list of things that are usually imported from China”

    did anyone find themselves needing anything on this list and being unable to obtain it?

  18. Personally, I worry more about moderate supply chain breakdowns. Because any authority can see that a total supply chain breakdown as described is an emergency situation and they would use emergency powers to try to fix it. Of course the authorities may do a terrible job, as we have seen before. But my point is, at least they would be doing something, and I’d expect mostly helpful things. And preppers here have very good ideas on how to prep for this sort of situation.

    However, you can’t expect the authorities to do much about supply chain breakdowns that don’t lead to obvious emergencies. The sort of things I’m thinking about: what about shortages of timber, parts for vehicles and other equipment, wire (electrical or not), etc? All those are things that we need and probably the authorities would do nothing to help.

    I think we need to think about all sorts of stuff that we may need for repairs and projects we want to engage in, and make sure that we have all the necessary tools, parts and materials. Because they may not be available when we actually want to go ahead and do those things.

  19. During the initial lockdowns, we learned two different grocery stores get shipments twice a week.
    Cut off the supply, they might have 3-4 days of food at normal consumption rates. Wal-Mart might get resupplied more often as their volume is larger.
    Still, cut off the supply and your average American only has 3 days of food at home, things could get real ugly, real quick.

    Those food supply warehouses, would not be surprised if the locals might just commandeer them for themselves. During hurricane Katrina, some yahoos took a grocery store, locked it down tight. They still passes out food and water, but no one was allowed in.

    1. “Those food supply warehouses, would not be surprised if the locals might just commandeer them for themselves.”

      your local group won’t be the only one. you can bet each depot is targeted by five or six “militia” teams, with insiders already in place having the codes, keys, etc. should be a lot of fun watching them all unexpectedly pile up against each other on go-day.

        1. not at all. most people have to live something before they can take it seriously, let alone know what to take seriously.

          good luck on go-day, dude. there’ll be lots coming your way.

          1. Your comment read like a bad TV plot or a mall-ninja know it all, causing eye-rolls all around.
            Need I remind you of your bad TV plot/mall-ninja urban harden survivors RV comments?
            And that is why no one takes you seriously.

            Odd, at the beginning of the COVID lockdowns, we did not know much about it, there was no “go-day” (is that you latest mall-ninja term?).
            I stood atop the hill over looking the house, the road and noted the sound of silence. Traffic all but disappeared. As no one was going anywhere. Just like on Christmas morning or New Years day.
            So the idea of lots coming my way . . .
            If you really have been at this for 12 years, you have not learned much of anything at all.
            I most certainly would not call you a prepper in any sense of the word.

            1. “Need I remind you of your bad TV plot/mall-ninja urban harden survivors RV comments?”

              please do. feel free to post links to them to … well, for whatever reason you like.

              “I most certainly would not call you a prepper in any sense of the word.”

              ok. good luck.

            2. @1stMarineJarHead

              “I most certainly would not call you a prepper in any sense of the word.”

              Says the fellow that ridicules any possible use if silver or gold coins in a barter economy. The guy that promotes skills, but only farming skills, and refuses to learn the easily mastered rules of gold and silver coins.

              1. In my area gold and silver coins would be absolutely useless in a true societal breakdown. Why? Because they would have zero value to the people who will be surviving enough to do any kind of business/trade with. You can’t eat them, stay warm with them or protect your kids with them. In order for gold and silver anything to be anything other than paperweights, the people around you would need to desire them or see them as having some kind of value to their current existence. Here in the sticks nobody is going to see “precious” metals as valuable enough to trade vital resources for, unless you have lead prepackaged into casings on offer. 🙂

  20. THE FIRST TO DIE WILL BE THOSE IN NURSING HOMES. THEN THE ELDERLY IN THEIR OWN HOMES. THEN THE YOUNG, SICK, AND POOR WILL DIE OFF. THE STRONG, HEALTHY, INDEPENDENT AND SMART WILL SURVIVE. WITHIN 60 DAYS, AS MUCH AS, 50% OF THE AMERICAN POPULATION WILL DIE OFF. HALF OF WHAT’S LEFT WON’T SURVIVE THEIR SECOND WINTER. ABOUT HALF OF WHAT’S LEFT WILL BE ABLE TO RESTART AMERICAN SOCIETY, BUT IN A MORE LIMITED WAY. ROUGHLY 30,000,000 AMERICANS.

    1. “30,000,000”

      optimist.

      they’d be supplemented by a few dozen million chinese. “all your base are belong to us, roundeye!”

  21. Here’s a real-life truism. Your HVAC system will fail you on the coldest week of the winter or the hottest week of the summer… and it happens on Friday afternoon. Yep, just happened to us. 94 outside/87 inside. New system ordered but was told the supply chain isn’t too fast these days. COVID, you know! But a country boy will survive.
    As a career (and now retired) emergency responder I can state unequivocally that should a situation develop as stated in this article, the first responsibility of any emergency responder will be to their families, NOT John Q. Public. Same goes for the person(s) providing you potable municipal water, garbage collection, healthcare services, and a dozen other services we just take for granted on a daily basis. All this could be spawned by multiple events , economic, war, martial law, social upheaval.

  22. “Would other necessary gear be delivered to the power plants in time for them to function effectively?”

    already delivered.

    ” There are many what-ifs here that can’t be nailed down as wholly (at least by me).”

    not a problem, the power companies have already nailed it all down.

  23. I have to drive a lot for one of my jobs, and I noticed multiple gas pumps had “Out of Service” covers on them, at multiple gas stations. When I asked about it, I was told that the trucking lines didn’t have enough drivers to make deliveries. So, everything was behind.

    It got me to thinking about how fragile supply lines are. That it wouldn’t take much to disrupt everything. But people are still clueless about it, even with what they’ve seen over the last 18 months.

    1. Similar experience at a local grocery. Wife asked me to pick up some organic peaches while I was there since they were on sale. Couldn’t find them. Asked a friend working there, “Where are the organic peaches?” They never got them. No one to drive the delivery truck or people at the warehouse to load them. Not catastrophic by any means not getting the peaches. But I think we will be seeing more of this and a lot more often.

  24. They are giviing everybody the mRNA jab. That’s NOT a good idea. It is said these people will either be dead or very sick within a few years.

    EVERYONE in EVERY segment of society. From medical to military (too numerous to mention) and everything in between.

    They will not even bother to declare martial law because there will be nobody to defend it. They all went home to be with families and loved ones (if still alive). It will be like in that movie with Nicolas Cage. I forgot the title.

    That’s the real plandemic. You have a short while to prepare, if true. And not surprisingly, the phony cure was worse than the phony disease.

    Worse, China or Russia might launch an invasion AFTER they softened you up with Nuclear missiles. Finishing you off in thirds.

  25. It would / will be hell on earth.
    What we have seen so far is barely an inkling of what’s coming.
    The unprepared will die.
    The “kinda” prepared probably will die a bit later
    Even the well prepared will have a hell of a time.
    Unfortunately, I’m somewhere in the middle.
    Still working on trying to catch up.
    Beyond a certain point, it’s in God’s hands.

  26. “This one is harder to put the finger on. There are a vast number of means by which power stations stay operational. Gasoline is one of those. As already noted, should there be a gasoline shortage, there will be an electricity shortage at gas-operated plants.”

    What power plants are powered by gasoline, other than personal generators? All the gas powered plants are natural gas powered, not gasoline powered. That would be REALLY expensive.

  27. The implications of ever having to go to a shelter run by the Red Cross, gives me shivers, and tightens my draw string. Given the option of being on my own, and going into a Red curse shelter is a no brainer.
    I will never if I have my way surrender to entering into a Shelter. I have worked in many exercises involing my HAM RADIO capabilities, and have found the Red Cross will bully you into submitting to them and their ways. Many times they have of course had the power of police to help them get their way. First they have a shrink interview you and make a decision for you. All I can say is NEVER NEVER submit to an interview with them. If at all possible save your money and always have cash available to provide for yourself, or have your own RV and resources to provide for your own personal support, shelter, food, fuel, etc. If you wish to wind up in a camp, believe me. the Red Cross interview will be the first step to being placed into a concentration camp. BLESSINGS, Seek wisdom from GOD.

    1. Dave of Oregon – I think what they will also do, for those completely unprepared and unwitting, is just make these camps sound great – after all they will have everything that “you” don’t have – food, water, A/C, heat, sanitation, whatever it may be – cable TV for the kids, a change of clothes, a place to charge your cell phone when the grid is down “everywhere else”. Except of course they won’t have those things, at least not for long. The lure and then the trap. It will be the final round of people who they will try to force or trick – many people will go willingly, having no idea. The core of what people do when they believe in an enemy has not changed, just the methods have become a little more sophisticated.

  28. Most of us can already see inflation rearing its ugly head right now. But the reason I’m convinced that we will see hyperinflation in the coming years is holy scripture. Revelation 6:5-6 refers to the 3rd Horseman of the Apocalypse, and it describes a coming time of runaway inflation. Food alone taking 100% of a day’s wages. I believe scripture 100%, and those days approach.

  29. The writer erroneously says: Electricity: This one is harder to put the finger on. There are a vast number of means by which power stations stay operational. Gasoline is one of those. As already noted, should there be a gasoline shortage, there will be an electricity shortage at gas-operated plants.

    Well, Gasoline is NOT one of those. There is no utility scale generator of electricity that uses Gasoline to power their generating stations.

    This writer apparently does not know the difference between Gasoline and natural gas.

    What a five letter word for IDIOT?

    1. Q, people would probably be more likely to listen to you if you weren’t so rude. You can point out an error without name-calling and descending into incivility.

  30. If we have no truckers due to lack of workers USE THE NATIONAL GUARD ,ARMY , AND NAVY !! They have plenty of trucks Helping the UNITED STATES, IS THERE BUSINESS AND THAT’S WHAT THEY ARE HERE FOR!! SINCE BIDEN HAS DESTROYED OUR TRUMP THRIVING ECONOMY !!

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