SELCO: Everything Is Fluid When the SHTF – Including the Rules of Survival

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Author of The Dark Secrets of SHTF Survival and the online course SHTF Survival Boot Camp

In hard and weird times, everything is fluid.

I bet you have heard many times that expression, but what does it actually mean?

In essence, it means if you do not pay attention to that “fluidity” or let s say if you do not keep paying attention to the timing of everything you are gonna make mistakes, and even more, you may end up dead.

“Rules” must also be fluid.

It is especially important in light of the “teachings” that you can find in mainstream survival where the majority of “masters of survival” give you rules on how to survive, but fail to recognize that rules are there for bending, for changing, even for trashing. It’s all connected with the timing of events, particular or current situation. (Here are some pieces of advice I find particularly bad in the survival world.)

It is fluid.

So, again, if someone is giving you rules (including me), never forget that you need to take it as a starting, point, or let’s say blueprint, or foundation only, that you should refer to when times get tough. BUT you must always be keeping in mind that the situation CHANGES, so the rules might change too.

I know the prepper world today is consistent with 99 percent of “lists what to do in order to survive” and I also know people like to have clear pointers and clear instructions on what to do and how to prepare, which is OK.

The problem is that the majority of folks want someone else to do the job of figuring it out and give them the solution, while they are sitting in a chair in front of their computers.

So you’ll get that, but in essence, it will be usually wrong or false.

You can get pointers, advice, and maybe the mental side of it or some particular skills, but you are still gonna have to move your ass from the chair and do the rest of the job.

Do not find yourself in the middle of a collapse with wrong instructions on what to do because you were too lazy to research it, or because you worked on someone else ‘s foundation and experience based on your own settings.

Here are some of the variables you will face.

Fluidity may sound like a philosophical thing, but it is real, and it is based on many variables like :

  • your surroundings (geographical)
  • climate
  • sociological (different kinds of people around you)
  • political
  • type of the event
  • duration of the event
  • your personal situation (age, medical, number of people, level of preparedness, skills)

And so on and so on.

So do you really believe it is only important for you to have enough guns or enough cans of food to survive without paying attention to how the situation changes around you?

If you take all the above and mix it up you can see how many ways and directions the situation may and will change for you in 3-4 weeks if something bad happens.

In a world-level situation, the changes are even worse. Everywhere, it is very fluid. What you can do is try to figure how the situation may change in your own case, in your own small “survival circle”.

What can you do?

Could this fluidity situation mean you might get low on some prescription drug even before a real SHTF? Or that ammo will become hard to find? Or that your neighborhood will become more targeted because law enforcement is stretched to its edge? Does racial tension mean it is a good moment to move from your current place where you live? What can you expect in those terms if law enforcement go “out on holiday”? Will you become a target?

Timing is very important, not only when the SHTF but also in the months before SHTF, while you still have time to change things in an easy way -without shooting someone maybe.

On the lower-level, a real-life good example of the fluidity of the situation and correct timing of your actions would be videos of folks suddenly showing up (dressed nicely, driving a nice car) in the middle of a masked and hooded rioting mob. They failed to understand how the situation was fluid, and they timed it wrong, so they become targets.

We live in a world and time where one decent neighborhood may become the center of rioting chaos in a matter of one hour, and that neighborhood may become a micro-scale world without law and order, with you in the middle of that, dressed nicely, driving a nice car, with kids on the back seat.

Just because you failed to understand that situation is FLUID.

It is a basic example of it, and it is even an example from a world that is still working normally.

When the SHTF it’s even more urgent.

When the S. hits the fan for real, all that fluidity goes on a higher level. It goes much faster, and the stakes are much higher.

While today you might get beaten or your car might get scratched or trashed because you find yourself in the middle of a riot, when the SHTF you would probably end up robbed and dead.


Well simply because stakes are higher (resources) and the repercussions (possibility of arrest and punishment) are lower or even nonexistent.

So, again it comes to the fluidity and timing. It comes to those good old calculations on how badly people want something and how badly they are scared of something in process of getting the resources.

Now, this means that YOU need to recognize how and especially WHEN the situation has gotten so bad that people WILL kill you for your resources because they are not scared that punishment is coming for them.

Today the mob is rioting at the mall looking for electronics. Tomorrow, maybe the mob is looking for food. The stakes are not the same, and the punishment (or possibility of it) is not the same.

Here you may say, “But I can level those stakes with having ME as a possibility of punishment for those who want to take stuff from me when SHTF.”

Of course, you will, and you should be ready for it actually. But much before that, you should implement these steps:

  1. Do not be there in the first place
  2. If you are already there, do not give reasons to be interesting to looters and thugs

And only then, maybe in third place. comes your will to defend.

Your actions must reflect the fluidity of your situation.

All of the above are only examples of the topic of the fluidity of the situation, and how your actions should reflect it.

When the SHTF, things happen faster, on a higher scale, and in worse ways than today. You should always keep that in mind when you are planning your own strategy of survival.

It comes into play in every aspect of your life when the SHTF (and even before): trading, fighting, resource gathering…

Simply know that the situation CHANGES all the time. You must adapt to it.

Picture of Selco


Selco survived the Balkan war of the 90s in a city under siege, without electricity, running water, or food distribution. In his online works, he gives an inside view of the reality of survival under the harshest conditions. He reviews what works and what doesn’t, tells you the hard lessons he learned, and shares how he prepares today. He never stopped learning about survival and preparedness since the war. Regardless what happens, chances are you will never experience extreme situations as Selco did. But you have the chance to learn from him and how he faced death for months. Read more of Selco's articles here. Buy his PDF books here. Take advantage of a deep and profound insight into his knowledge by signing up for his unrivaled online course. Real survival is not romantic or idealistic. It is brutal, hard and unfair. Let Selco take you into that world.

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  • Selco, first of all Id like to say this to you, Sir.

    I personally thank you for taking the time to write this article. I have read your online book about your dark survival , when the balkan region was being shelled. That information was eye opening for me. I learned alot of what could happen and how evil people can get . You and Daisy’s diligence in advising those of us, that are TRYING to prepare does not go UNNOTICED and is very very much appreciated, Sir.

    I am a damascus knife dealer at events and I conducted a personal poll with alot of my customers. I asked them, if the SHTF and they ran out of FOOD, WATER, or Medicines, what would they do? I asked them, what would they do if they ran out of medicines. Selco, their answers was shocking.

    They replied with, ” I will just rob someone else with lethal force ,of what they got.” At that moment, I asked them, ” What if the people you are trying to rob, has a gun and will shoot back.” They replied with , ” Thats just the chance I would take feed myself and my family”. I replied with , ” Wouldnt it be smarter , to just prepare now, and get the things you need, instead of risking getting shot”. They replied with, ” Thats too much TROUBLE and its not convenient. Im not going to worry about the SHTF. If it does, then I will just rob other people”. Selco, I was amazed and shocked at those replies. I was amazed that people are so lazy and evil. I also asked them, what would they do if they and/or their family ran out of medicine. They replied with, ” I would just get a group of people together and break into a pharmacy”…

    After receiving all this input from those people, it really, really made me wish I lived far out in the country , where my closest neighbor might be a mile or two from me , in the mountains.

  • This is spot on. Right now we are in an ice storm. There is a lady trying to find a battery operated heater to heat her whole house. She’s refusing information on propane heaters that are available on the shelves right now.
    She can’t get past (A) heating the entire house instead of stapling blankets over hallways and just doing a room (B) not have button touching ease of comfort.
    I’m positive they spent a cold miserable night because of it. They will perish if it gets real bad.

    In the military one of the sayings we used the most and hated the most was “stay flexible”. It meant everything was changing and rarely did it get easier.

    Y’all stay safe, do what’s needed and sort it out later.

    • im impressed ..a battery heater… Im in the same ice storm, we missed by a cpl degrees- right now we are all in a holding pattern, unfortunately, opsec calls for not shouting out our locations but that keeps us isolated. Getting up with the neighbors is tricky and so far not very successful- just because people live outside of the city doesnt mean they have any clue whats going on (reality) you are what u eat, and yourmindset is the info and sources u take in biggest failure is the blindness about phones and computers, but phones #1 stupid bass turds would rather part with their p3nis than their “fone” and all of its wonderful abilities id like to meet other okies but its so damn risky.

      • I’ve done meet n greets for years. Sometimes it works out and sometimes not. Usually it’s worth the meal and conversation.
        If we ain’t near then at least we can bounce ideas off one another.

        Right now I agree in being cautious. I’ve had a recent reach out from another site that “wanted to join me”. Yeah sure in a year or so after several training sessions and some real contact. That’s not what they wanted. They wanted a life preserver for elections which me n mine ain’t. They brought nothing to the table. We work hard, train hard and put a lot of investment into what we have.

        The second thing that turns folks away is wanting to be in a militia. I’m no where near that nor do I have any interest. I might not be head over heels with my government but I’ll bounce you off your head for trying to hurt America. I’m into preparedness.

        So all this being said gimmie till after deer rifle season and we can probably meet.

  • Like JW, I am often left speechless by many of the people I met due to their obvious cognitive dissidence regarding the serious changes we are experiencing right now and how they think, if thinking enters into it at all. I learned long ago to approach a drowning person from behind otherwise they will latch on to you and pull you down with them. That’s how I view the majority of people these days. Within a short time after a true SHTF event occurs you don’t want to be around any of these people. They will be the ruin of you in the panic to save themselves.

  • I have a library of Selco’s resources. Selco is the best, bar none, mindset development resource in existence. Its the between your ears mindset that is where you operate from. I have used Selco materials to get my head on straight. I recommend to all, get and absorb all his writings and take the course if you can. If I didnt have the articles from before they were commercialized, i would buy them, They arent expensive and there is no similar resource- that can give your head a trip into the experience of SHTF… as Selco says, nothing can prepare you for some things, (many things) but you wont be freaking out in confused surprise if you have developed a mindset and understanding and mental image of the horrors and daily grind of survival; you wont become a zombie prematurely, and theres no guarantees u wont, but Selco training will take the surprise out of the reality if and when u find urself in it… “oh, ive heard of this, I know of this, ok, what to do” FLUID

  • “So do you really believe it is only important for you to have enough guns”

    actually some groups intend exactly that – to have enough guns to take what they need from whoever has it. and right now they’re figuring out who has what and making plans on how to take it.

    great plan really – safe, simple, efficient, light-weight, low-observable, flexible.

    • Those guys will likely have the shortest life spans.

      The best laid plans are only as good as first contact.

      Safe? A bullet rich environment is hardly what I would call safe. This is not Call of Duty.

      Simple? See the part above about best laid plans.

      Efficient? Only as long as the ammo supply keeps up. A lot of those guys whom have not master the fundamentals and depend on volume fire are going to quickly run out of ammo.

      Light-weight? Only if fuel is available. Otherwise they are humping whatever they can carry. If you have ever had to hump any appreciable distance in full gear, light-weight is not a word I would use.

      Low-observable? Not any firefights I have ever heard of (pun intended). You can hear gun fire from a good ways off. And a fire fight? Everyone within a mile to mile and a half will know something is up, and on guard.

      Flexible? Only if they are willing to think out of the box.

        • Like gardening? Raising small livestock? Fishing?
          Much more low risk then trying to take other peoples things by force.
          Bad way to live in fear like that, always looking over your shoulder.

          • “Like gardening? Raising small livestock? Fishing?”

            actually that’s high-risk. 1) fixes you in place, 2) high chance of failure by amateurs, 3) success makes you a target, 4) 360 degree threat frontage. etc.

            “Much more low risk then trying to take other peoples things by force”

            actually there’s lots of risk amelioration in that approach. full resource dedication to weapons and tactics and approach, freedom of choice in time and place and frontage of action against fixed targets, no-one bothers you otherwise because you have nothing worth any risk at all, etc.

            • I’m with you on that. Because that’s how things are in any 3rd world country (like where I live, and what the entire world is about to become).

              Those who have little or nothing can spot the “haves” a mile away. They can smell BS and weakness, real weakness even behind tacticool stuff and military braggadocio. Criminals and street people are street-smart, it is a bad mistake to downplay these kinds or take them for fools.

              Word spreads fast in town. If you’re lucky, they come to talk and get something (“sell” you protection, etc.). If you’re unlucky, or the situation is favorable (to them) they will just take it at gunpoint and you better shut up and be happy. All they know their entire life is survival in exactly these conditions Selco talks about. All they know and do is preying on others (usually much harder than preppers).

              When there is a crisis, as in any prolonged or deep economical downturn or something (I call near or mild SHTF) there’s no jobs, no nothing. Then people with any resource kinda glow and stick out. Right now it is money and a Tag or Jaeger or Montblanc, but in a crisis it’s more basic stuff like jewelry, food, even guns and knives and other stuff.

              Around here the rich drive armoured cars, 80% of luxury SUVs and Sports have ballistic glass and kevlar lined trimming because you can get robbed, but a couple decades ago you got kidnapped for ransom.

              There are so many ways criminals can get what they want, when I read preppers saying guns this stockpiles that I remember what Selco says because… well, I haven’t been through a war but I know firsthand what is social decaying and near SHTF.

              • “like where I live”

                not having any experience I tried to consider the matter theoretically – what would and would not exist, what would be the logical responses to these situations, etc. but you speak from actual experience, so your post is more useful than mine.

                • Yes, that is the logic of SHTF and survival: there are more ways to die than to live. Simple as that. And LUCK plays a bigger role than most preppers think too. But then it’s like that in normal life I guess.

    • So do you really believe it is only important for you to have enough guns…
      (the rest of Selco’s question was) or enough cans of food to survive without paying attention to how the situation changes around you?

      … would be ironic if many “run’n gun” folks , got their @$$es kicked and provided their supplies to the very people they intended to plunder…. the situation might have changed, around you, and you are good pickin’s for those who now lack what you think you have… too many movies.. the jun hordes pillaging the helpless peasants… and all it takes is a 12 yr old on a 22 and your lights are out, let alone folks who have skills and intent, and can and will kill both to protect and maybe after a time, for sport, those who think themselves “badd”

      • “and all it takes is a 12 yr old on a 22 and your lights are out, let alone folks who have skills and intent, and can and will kill”

        sure. but what lots of preppers don’t grasp is that this goes both ways. looters and criminals (and people who are simply hungry) aren’t just mindless sheep, they can be smart too, and lots of them will be.

  • As usual this site has some of the best info and posts. Time is short and most people are clueless about what is coming. If you are like us and are always looking for info as to what is planned , please check out the “Shut Down D.C.” website. It pretty much lays out what the Antifa/BLM types are going to do post Nov. 3rd.

    If you think that Trump will win and Antifa/BLM/Soros is going away, I’ve got some swamp land here in Florida to sell y’all.

    Stay fluid and God Bless

    • Yeah it’s one of many things that will happen from all sides.
      I read up on it with your previous post.

    • Seminole Wind
      Here is the “training session” of them

      In a lot of it they talk exit strategy, needing medics, not be prepared for a gunfight or real fight.

      Not the best strategy by far but there’s always going to be martyrs for the cause.
      It seems if they can get pics of bodies hanging on the White House fence they might be happy.

  • My plan for the next 1 – 2 months is to stay put. Leaving my house only to go to work. Again,as Selco points out, it may change depending on the situation. May God,in His abounding mercy protect Selco,Daisy,and all people on this site.

    • “May God,in His abounding mercy protect Selco,Daisy,and all people on this site”

      just curious. why not ask him to protect everyone?

      • Because that’s who’s on her mind and heart at the moment.
        She didn’t pray for the platypus because she wasn’t in thought of the platypus.
        It’s genuine.

        • “It’s genuine”

          oh yeah I can see it’s genuine. it’s just that I’ve been listening to christians pray for decades now and it’s like there’s seldom anything on their minds or hearts other than themselves or what they immediately care about. but seems to me that it’s just as easy to pray for everything than to pray for any one thing, so I thought I’d ask.

          • In my case I’m flawed. I don’t wish nor pray well for everyone. In fact I’d go as far as to say I hate.
            I’ll not pray for everyone especially those who are trying to harm me or mine.
            So she’s genuine and I’m flawed and your judgy. Now we all know who’s what.
            You got anything productive?

              • Morning gman. Your inputs are interesting which raised my curiosity so I’m just asking – no ill will intended: do you call yourself a Christian? If not, do you embrace any other type of faith or religious philosophy?

                • “your inputs are interesting”

                  hopefully they’re useful to someone.

                  “do you call yourself a Christian?”

                  yes, though most of my views are heretical.

                • I understand. I too have ruffled a feather or two when I’ve stated my Biblical understanding or position on something.

  • This is a good wake up call to many people, if they bother to take it to heart.

    Basically in SHTF , there are no “rules”. Rules as we know them will not longer exist or at least we can’t count on them to govern other people’s behavior. Civilization is built upon rules, we live within a set of rules. Once civil society collapses, nothing will be certain, no rules will apply for awhile.
    Mercy and Charity will be some of the first things to go and probably ones of the last to return. There will be exceptions, there always are exceptions.

    Eventually though Civilization, in one form or another, will exert itself with a new set of rules. Starting with small groups or tribes of people. Unification of larger areas and groups will be by force and probably by war, if it follows historical patterns.
    So prepare for a long haul and not a short run.

  • You mean as fluid as my bullets can clear a path for me to the last vegetable left in the produce section of my local market. Obviously things will not change unless we let “them” know that we won’t take this much longer before we start looking for principles to take out because they only consider us slaves to till their plantation.

  • I was talking to someone recently about prepping and we talked about a real shft scenario and how that person would survive. Their response was I have weapons , why waste my time and money on what I can just take and they truly believed that this was the best way. They then went onto say they would never hurt my family. Hmm yeah right, I was so glad I kept pushing this line of conversation as I had planned to invite this person to prep with us. Nothing will be clear cut as good guys / bad guys .

    • Wow, that was a real eye opener for me. I had no idea that there were so many people that just want to ‘take’ and wouldn’t want to prepare at all, learn skills, etc.

  • THE US MILITARY have raised thousands of VELORAFTERS,this is a dinosaur for those of you who don’t know history,THEY WILL BE UNLEASHED IN THE MOUNTAINS,to eat those who fled to wilderness areas,They hunt in packs of FIVE OR TEN,they’ll eat children in a second,your farm animals will be the first to be eaten by them,IT will take a large caliber bullet to kill them,I don’t if they’ll be good to eat,they say their in the chicken family,and THEIR FOUR OR FIVE FEET TALL…the forest animals will be gone in weeks,eaten by these very dangerous predators..DO NOT PLAN ON THE MOUNTAINS..with out a good weapon…..

    • Meds Arizona you need to take your meds.

      At least I get a weird chuckle from your constant off the far wall comments 🙂 I actually LOOK for them 🙂

      Man is still the most dangerous animal on earth. Not something from a B grade movie, a sneaky deceitful killer.

      Americans as a whole have no clue what BAD TIMES are. We go to the Food Bank In our Late Model Cars… When I am working the local food bank our Homeless come in with Cell Phones and most have Internet Service on them….

      When “Mommy I’m HUNGRY” is the song of the land even the sweetest Grandmother will KILL you for your pitiful lunch.

      Prepare and decide how your going to handle the REAL NEEDY people around you.

  • Never assume people are awake or prepared…a couple quick questions can clue you in pretty quickly to their general level of awareness. I prefer the grey man posture where I’m just another clueless citizen watching what’s about to happen, I’m always analyzing how to disappear or how I’m going to eliminate them all. It’s good practice to be intimately aware of your surroundings…like the lady said, it’s fluid.

  • All the input I’ve been reading here gives me the impression that everyone is expecting a lot of direct confrontations with ‘opposing next door neighbors or gangs down the street’ for a very prolonged period of time. Yes, that’s all very possible and I’m sure some of this is going happen in some areas – no doubt.
    But, here’s more sauce for the goose to consider for our ‘doom and gloom’ scenarios.
    As of late, I’ve been reading articles where FEMA has been telling major corporations here in the U.S. to prepare for a “nationwide” grid down situation which will include communications – the most likely cause will be computer hacking from enemies of the U.S. It is said that this notice from FEMA is being given with “urgency”.
    If that actually happens, everything and everyone will instantly become crippled. The natural gas flow to you home will likely stop unless the company that provides the gas uses the same gas to run the pumps which won’t mean much if your home is ‘forced air’ heated because there won’t be any electricity – but if you have a gas range, you’ll still be able to cook – for awhile.
    Water will not flow unless you’re directly linked to a water tower – but it will run out in very short order and with no power to run the pumps, the towers won’t refill.
    Once all the battery back-ups run down all forms of communication will drop out – cell phones will eventually become paperweights or limited forms of information that you have stored in memory – provided you have some way of keeping them charged. And so it goes….
    Anyway, to the point – with no running water – the only water each home will have is what’s in the toilet tank and the water heater. That will only take a few days to use up. After that, it’ll be a few weeks before most of the neighborhoods are empty because everyone will have run out of gas for their vehicles shuttling back and forth between home and any water source – and they won’t be back – they’ll likely be staying near the water source (river or lake) so here come all the tent cities – and now the chaos will really set in.
    Just look at L.A. – they have square miles of tent cities and they still have electricity and running water…. For now.
    Don’t expect the military to be there to help – they’re going to have their hands full with the Chinese who are building up their forces north and south of the U.S. boarders – it’s being said that Justin Trudeau is allowing the Chinese military to be there “to protect Chinese interests”…. Yea, sure. That would explain why Trump sent 150 of the 287 F22’s & F35’s to Canada less than two months ago and why we’re seeing all kinds of military battle hardware being sent towards Washington and Maine.
    It’s okay if you don’t believe me…. I don’t care. The information is out there – just do a bit or research.
    It’s interesting that FEMA and DHS have both come out with computer models showing that 90% of the U.S. population will be dead inside a year after a grid down situation.
    Just go to YouTube and look up Mark Levin interviews Peter Pry talking about this very situation.
    Granted, Peter Pry initially talks about a CME hitting the earth and taking out the grid which would mean that it will take a couple of years to rebuild – where a computer hack could take out the grid for only 6 months.
    But even with only a six month grid down situation, the estimates are approximately 60% of the population will be dead after the first two to three months – all in all, it’s going to be a really bad day for everyone.

    • “FEMA has been telling major corporations here in the U.S. to prepare for a ‘nationwide’ grid down situation”

      (shrug) if I were china that’s how I’d do it. get lots of “chinese-americans” in positions of access, have them all act at once, done.

      • Yep. That is highly plausible. Given the fact that since the “virus” from China situation, well over 2000 Chinese “students” who were “officially” registered to be on American soil seem to have come up “missing”…. gee, I wonder where they are…

    • Spot on Jerry- and those reporting it dont even fully believe/get it- they waffle- one day they report as u have above, the next they are talking about plans as though this isnt HAPPENING NOW and going to be an at your door issue. We just had a little ice storm- many out of electric- finding out how pitiful their prep plans are- like u are going to “fight the bad guys and defend the republic” and other nonsense, but u are going to have power and ur stupid cell fone tracking device- its been play time and gadgets and memes and slogans and tough guy talk- and a little thing will shut down many. Winter, or summer in the south, no electric, and ur @$$ will lose 1/2 its resolve. selco- “by second day you are so fckng dead”
      The original post here is: SELCO: Everything Is Fluid When the SHTF – Including the Rules of Survival
      … Electric & comms go down, and most will be dead in the water busy just trying to get thru the day- High speed death machine prepper, zombies. When day to day life gets hard, the prepper game gets supplanted with simple basic pia things sapping ur energy.
      SELCO: Everything Is Fluid When the SHTF – Including the Rules of Survival is what he was talking about.
      So electricity and communication being taken away, and ur adaptation and ability to function without them, is a large part of being FLUID in that event -WHICH BY MANY REPORTS over time from many sources, is going to be a reality.

  • Perhaps you have heard of Boyds Loop, OODA, Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. This is what fighter pilots do in air to air combat and the written concept and all that goes behind it wa used in WW2. It still applies today in almost everythimg. I use a varient, SOLAR, Stop, Observe, Learn, Act, Repeat, in dog training and it applies to the person as well as the dog. Fancy term is situational awareness and Check Your Six.

    Awareness is like circles created.when a rock is thrown in a pond. Each circle from the center impact point spreads out and slowly flattens out. Always think of yourself at the center of the ripples and what is going on with the distances from yourself. So, shortages in plywood, for example, before a hurricane, means shortages elsewhere as the supply of plywood is shifted to the immediate demand. Anything that has a Just in Time supply chain puts you at risk. So, Stop, observe, learn, act and repeat can be the thing that gets you out of a jam not of you choosing.

  • the first rule of survival post SHTF is learn to adapt to the new situation, if you cant adapt and stick to the modern ways prevalent in the here and now dont bother to prepare because you wont be around for long.

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