The American Third World: We’ll Soon Be Living in It

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Author of Street Survivalism: A Practical Training Guide To Life In The City

[Originally published December 16, 2021. It seems just as timely now as both a retrospective and a warning. ~ Daisy] It’s that time of the year, and instead of following tradition and making new predictions and forecasts (which we preppers do all the time anyway), I usually look back into the recent past, review my (and other’s) work and previous analyses, what transpired (or not), where my perspectives need adjustment and where, and so forth.

I decided to review and expand on a few topics addressed previously here and see where we are on those. In April, I wrote about the thirdworldization of the United States, as both it, and the rest of the First World is gradually shifting towards the Third World.

It’s not only happening, but accelerating. And the entire world is going that way, too – or soon it will, judging by the signs. These things have a delay and don’t happen linearly, but in waves.

Thirdworldization 2.0 – When the First World becomes the Third World

Let’s see some more about how life can be in places constantly suffering with economic crises, political upheavals, moral degeneracy, authority demoralization, institutional failure and social decadence.

For anyone who’s never lived in such a context, understanding the dynamics of the system and societies in the third world (or any place in which the order has changed drastically, yet not totally evaporated), can be a good way to prepare for what’s already underway.

The current crisis is global and unlike others seen in recent times

Notwithstanding the crap lining up just waiting to hit the fan – a pandemic, a debt time-bomb, geopolitical tensions, and lots more – the capacity to deal with all that is at an all-time low. Even wealthy nations look exhausted, depleted, and lost like never before.

There’s zero willingness to cooperate and coordinate a solution, despite authorities’ constant and oddly similar declarations to the contrary. Speaking of the leadership currently in charge, it’s as mediocre, misguided, and uninspiring as it can possibly be.

And this is everywhere. We’re screwed.

It’s impossible to say for sure whether or not all that will end up in a full-blown SHTF of some kind, much less when. It can take a year, or ten. What’s certain is this: until things reach that catalyst point, degradation will force large swaths of populations worldwide, in most if not all countries, to take a few steps back in many fronts.

As I said before, it’s already happening.

The Third World will get much worse, and the First World will become a lot like the Third.

This is not SHTF as some might see it, but a middle-of-the-road-yet-still-gloomy scenario. Many in Preppersphere can’t conceive of anything less than the Apocalypse. Fine, to each their own. Besides, preparing for the worst means covering for everything less, so in principle it’s not a bad strategy, right?

I live in Brazil, but have visited the US, EU, and a few other countries and continents, even having lived abroad for a period during the 1990’s. I’ve experienced both realities under different circumstances and gained some perspective on the contrasts between advanced societies, and ones with broken, inefficient, and corrupt institutions, and with weak social contracts.

That’s what I’m here to share. I’ll continue to raise awareness to what society converts into long before TEOTWAWKI happens, and try to help others prepare and deal with that. I do this not only because this is what I have some degree of knowledge in, but also because that is what I see happening.

It’s hard to make progress in a ‘quicksand environment.’

In developed countries, people frame their decisions and take action based on reasonable probabilities, and the assumption that certain basic conditions of the social contract won’t change radically or suddenly, depending on who’s in charge or some other spurious reason.

A functional checks-and-balances system warrants the stability of laws, regulations, the tax regime, while the political rules and institutions create a favorable environment for investment and risk taking by people, families, and businesses. That’s what promotes the development and advancement of a country.

That’s perhaps the most important thing to understand about (and consequently prepare for) thirdworldization: it’s not just that things change, but how they change. Thirdworldization is the present and constant possibility that things can get done, undone, and again, at any moment, in unpredictable ways, without debate or warning.

How do you make plans for the future in such context?

Instability and uncertainty make life in general much harder to navigate in the Third World.

If the goalposts are constantly moving, everyone will act short or near-term as a way to adapt and survive. The harder and more unstable the context, the faster you must both adapt and act (what is SHTF if not chaos?). So, there’s a silver lining to living like this, but also a price: it’s riskier, more stressful, tiresome, and frustrating.

I won’t say it’s hell, because it’s not.

Most people don’t live 24/7 in fear or under serious risk, not even in severely hit places. It’s not a full scale SHTF. Life’s just more fluid, more challenging, and not as predictable and calm as in more civilized nations. Actions and consequences don’t follow a linear, predictable path.

Look around and see the sweeping anxiety and depression everywhere. I’d argue it’s not being caused by the pandemic, or even the economy going kaput, but by the appetite of governments everywhere to change basic rules and destroy freedom and individual liberty in the name of an emergency. When you combine this with peoples’ willingness to forfeit their rights, privacy and liberties in the name of illusory safety you end up with our current world.

That’s what I mean by the world going the way of the third world.

Observing and understanding the real nature of fluidity in everyday life of a dysfunctional society can be critical, because dysfunctional is exactly what the world is fast becoming.

I’ll give some examples to illustrate what I’m talking about…

What does the path to authoritarianism look like?

The executive, legislative, and judiciary overstepping each other is common in banana republics. Every country can have a bill of rights, but it’s the separation of powers that make the constitution effective. Without a checks and balances system, rights are just words on a piece of paper.

This creates both confusion and infighting while simultaneously eroding confidence in the government’s institutions. People lose reference, politicians tend to abuse this strategy more and more, and from there it’s only downhill. It’s the exact script dictators and populists everywhere follow every single time to not only take power but to try to keep it forever.

For a long time this was something unacceptable and unseen in advanced nations. Despite this though, it’s still been happening for some time now only having escalated in the last couple decades. Since 2020 it’s exploded, and it’s now eroding political and social stability in various developed countries.

And this is not only about inflated presidents declaring wars and contracting treaties and other actions without congressional approval, but also the government ceding increasing powers to agencies – NGOs and others organizations of unprepared, unelected tyrants aligned with the elites, eager to interfere and micromanage both society and people’s lives, as they steal peoples’ inherent rights and freedom.

We now have moral ambiguity from top to bottom.

As we go lower down the scale into a full-fledged Third World nation, everyday life begins to border on the bizarre. In developing countries, the public administration is a cesspool of incompetence, poor planning, lack of vision, populism, and corruption which drains precious resources and wealth from what would otherwise be a productive population.

The bureaucracy can reach paralyzing levels. The tax regime is so complex and illogical that it’s almost impossible to comply, even if you want to. The regulations are unstable and mutating. Besides punishing the population, these regulations lower the appetite of people and businesses to invest and take risk. The economy becomes less dynamic, less competitive, and eventually, it crawls.

Finally, when the government, institutions, and other authorities begin to become ambiguous with their defining the rules they create and enforce, people start thinking “why should I follow any of that?”

And once this happens, then it’s only a matter of time for disorder to increase and morality to collapse. That’s what a slow-burning SHTF means, after all: a  semi-functional system where everything is fluid and the laws have little practical effect.

There’s little guns can do to solve bigger issues.

But let’s switch gears a little to explain something related: guns are important and can save us in some specific situations. But they can’t help with any of the stuff I’m talking about.

Who are we gonna shoot? The politicians? The corrupt cops? The lazy public workers? The stupid laws? That would solve nothing. All it would mean would be civil war, which only makes everything worse.

Things might get to that point, but it’s a completely different dynamic. When the system is up, shooting someone can land you in jail – even in the Third World.

“How’s that any different from anywhere else?” you might ask. In many ways, this starts with an ineffective investigation apparatus: here only about 6% of intentional homicides are solved, in comparison to an average of 65% in US, 80% in France, and 90% in UK.

Translating, it’s a lot more discouraging to commit a crime in the First World than in the Third. But then other distortions and inequalities come into play. The rich and/or connected almost never go to jail, no matter the crime.

And this leads to the second big difference: the slow and utterly unfair justice system that punishes the entire society, by not punishing the deserving, as it should.

And then there’s the infamous Third World penitentiary system…

These are true SHTF microcosms. No prison anywhere is paradise, obviously. But do you have any idea how bad and dangerous a Third World jail is? If having forty dangerous inmates in a small cubicle originally designed to hold four gives you chills, you understand why honest citizens (especially preppers) are so reluctant to brag about firearms and shooting others in developing countries.

In there, one can get raped, beat up, killed. Or co-opted by one of the many factions that command organized crime, to whom you’ll belong for protection, for the right to live, or even to keep your relatives from being abused, tortured, or killed outside.

Instead of rehabilitating prisoners, this system turns them into even better (that is, worse) criminals.

Mass escapes are commonplace in third world prisons too. So are violent riots and rebellions in which enemy factions fight, torture, kill and literally rip apart their rivals, as a way to display ruthlessness and inflict fear into opponents. Sure, these things also happen in first world prisons, but not with nearly the same frequency, brutality, or impunity.

There are many ways to get unwillingly involved in this mess of a system too.

As the situation worsens, so does the entire system. If you do everything right, lay low and get lucky, you may be well. It’s not guaranteed though. Something crazy can happen by pure chance or opportunity, and you’re suddenly involved in something you didn’t ask for, but can’t avoid or escape anymore.

For instance, one day the cops or some government agent – inspection, fiscal, whatever – pay a visit to your small shop or business and ask for a “collaboration”, for… reasons. You pay, of course. It’s extortion, but you don’t want to upset the “law” – and the system can’t protect you from itself.

Now you’re a cash cow.

You go for a jog in the streets and 99% of the times nothing happens. One day you get mugged, or your wife or daughter get groped while riding a bicycle, and there’s little you can do (if you thought “guns!”, go back a couple paragraphs and read what I said about those again).

And then, there’s the organized crime…

I could talk about organized crime for forever, discussing how it grows and spreads based on the same principles and practices that high-profile corporations use to grow and spread. How it infiltrates all levels of society, by corruption, intimidation, lobbying, or even by financing people to occupy strategic positions. How it gets involved with politicians, legitimate businesses, the media – until it’s just one big thing with tentacles everywhere.

Instead, I’ll do you all a big favor and just point to a couple of movies that not only show in true, raw, vivid colors how this whole mechanism works, but do it in a very entertaining and thrilling way. Elite Squad (1997) and it’s sequel, The Enemy Within (2010) are two of most brilliant and well-made Brazilian movies ever (both rated 8.0 on IMDB).

Apart from superb action flicks, they’re blunt, brutal, realistic portraits of crime, drug fighting/trafficking, institutional corruption, and overall social and moral decadence. They explain how crime evolves and takes the system – how it gets “institutionalized”. It’s shocking, revealing, and educational.

There’s a reason I keep returning to the topic of crime.

Crime and violence are insidious and pervasive, the first evidence of collapse, while at the same time both the cause and consequence of deeper issues. Crime is the antecedent to (serious) shortages, and skyrockets when the grid goes down. It becomes both a collective and an individual problem. It affects us directly, and indirectly, physically and mentally – an itch no one can scratch.

Look how fast crime has grown in the US and around the world just in the past few months. I’m not talking about a 2% increment, but something in the two or even three figures in some places – and again, in months. For many, especially the part of society living in safe and civilized regions, crime may seem like something distant, numbers and statistics presented in the news.

That all changes when it comes to our door, and then the cat is definitely out of the bag.

To conclude, there’s been a lot of talk about the possibility of civil war in US. I think that it can happen, but not necessarily like 1871. It could be a mix of guerrilla warfare and crime, for instance. Or we could witness a steep, sudden, and widespread rise in crime and violence. In Haiti, gangs rule the country and casualties are high. It affects everyday life and impacts the whole population, the economy, everything. It may not be declared, but its de facto a civil war.

Abandoning innocence

When everything is good and there’s a surplus, collaboration happens easily and even spontaneously. With all the challenges and hardships we’re facing, people are entering survival mode everywhere. Becoming more knowledgeable about the dynamics of living in a dysfunctional society can build psychological preparations to live in a fluid and unstable world.

I acknowledge none of what I talked about here is the prerogative of Third World or collapsed countries. Disorder, corruption and malfeasance are part of human nature and exist everywhere. But again, it’s certainly more widespread and violent where it’s not contained, and – this is critical – not punished.

And that’s precisely in proportion to the level of institutional efficiency, solidity and civil cohesion. Once these decay, the doors to social maladies are held wide open. And wherever this happens, a similar scenario unfolds.

It’s happening everywhere.

What are your thoughts?

Do you see this happening around you? Do you expect things to get worse? Let us know in the comments.

About Fabian

Fabian Ommar is a 50-year-old middle-class worker living in São Paulo, Brazil. Far from being the super-tactical or highly trained military survivor type, he is the average joe who since his youth has been involved with self-reliance and outdoor activities and the practical side of balancing life between a big city and rural/wilderness settings. Since the 2008 world economic crisis, he has been training and helping others in his area to become better prepared for the “constant, slow-burning SHTF” of living in a 3rd world country.

Fabian’s ebook, Street Survivalism: A Practical Training Guide To Life In The City, is a practical training method for common city dwellers based on the lifestyle of the homeless (real-life survivors) to be more psychologically, mentally, and physically prepared to deal with the harsh reality of the streets during normal or difficult times. 

You can follow Fabian on Instagram @stoicsurvivor

Fabian Ommar

Fabian Ommar

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  • As for the USA, it was Blue and Gray in 1861 and Red and Blue in 2021. Hopefully, it won’t turn into another Civil War. Godspeed to all.

        • Vaccine mandates violate international laws: Nuremberg code and UN human rights treaty. US laws incl the HIPAA act: medical privacy laws, Civil rights act ’64: the right to enter public accomodations incl education facilities, regardless of race, sex, religion etc. and conduct business (dining, bars, retail, hotels, etc). Employees or managers working in these places have no legal right to Q anyone on their medical info.

          • That’s why Japan, where I live, won’t go anywhere near mandating that junk. Those in the current government remember how their war criminals were dealt with in the now-demolished Sugamo Prison, and it seems they don’t want the same happening to them.

          • …..and the Nuremburg code is exactly what I referenced in writing to the HR dept of a previously employer when I quit last year due to the forced COVID shot mandate…..as soon as I did that, I called every Representative and both Senators from my state to explain why I left….then I filed a complaint with my state AG’s office.

            In my case, I have (now deceased ) relatives who came ashore on the beaches of France, survived the war, and came back to share their experiences……this resonated with me, along with other personal experiences.

        • 1st Marine, don’t you know that the wokesters already know everything?

          Seriously, trying to have a rational debate with these lemmings is like trying to play volleyball with a cockroach. they can’t get it and they won’t do it

          • Sammy,
            Thank you for the laugh!

            Fact is, the idea of a Civil War 2.0 goes back more than just a few years.
            The idea of those mentioning civil war being limited to the “Red” side is somewhat misleading. After Trump won in 2016, the “Resist” movement immediately went mainstream (headlined by Clinton herself, to this day, she still insists the election was . . . stolen, from her). It may not be a call to a civil war by exact words, but similarities are too close for comfort.

            As others have noted, the idea of Civil War 2.0 is truly frighting. With the failure of the JIT/BAU system that would happen at the onset of a war, millions would die, without even so much as a shot fired within 100 miles of them. As I mentioned in other articles comments sections, better an amicable divorce, forming two differing nations, side be side, but never meet, then real shots fired.

            • “better an amicable divorce, forming two differing nations, side be side”

              the left will never allow it. they see everything as theirs, including you. they see your independence as theft, theft from them. they’ll pursue you to the ends of the earth demanding your submission and slavery, or your extermination otherwise.

              “the idea of Civil War 2.0 is truly frighting”

              there will be no civil war. civil war requires two mutually independent sides, capable of waging war against the other. no such situation exists in the u.s. at this point – neither side is independent, and neither side is capable of waging war.

              • You are technically correct.
                Although it might start out as being billed as a “civil war”, due to being an internal conflict.
                Instead you get a SHTF, every man for himself type of breakdown. Which is actually much, much worse than a true Civil war.

            • That we might not be given that option is also still at play. Biden could very well pull a Lincoln and insist that secession isn’t an option or legal. He ignores the Constitution when it suits him. I wouldn’t be surprised if an attempt at firearm confiscation isn’t made in the next year, with the willing assist of Blue State governors. It will be under the guise of some Emergency, but death by a Thousand Cuts is taking too long for the Democrats. Austin has already begun training the troops for Ruby Ridge 2.0.

              Civil War is a real possibility. The Loony Left keeps pushing the bounds. In truth, we’re already in a cold Civil War, the shooting just hasn’t started yet.

              • Let me help shed some light on the idea of a Civil War, simply because I don’t see the awareness of the underlying causes on this forum.

                Civil War is not a natural devolution. Rather, it is an orchestrated process by the Deep State – the exact same people that brought us COVID, the mRNA Jab, and all the lockdowns and economic destruction in between.

                To be more specific, Civil War is coming at us with 100% certainty! It has been the top goal for the past 20 plus years, and is the reason COVID was launched and executed the way it was, with all the Health Mandates and Restrictions.

                The final nail in the coffin to guarantee Civil War in the USA is going to happen next week: The UN/WHO Vote to Amend the IHR. Which is a legal framework that already supercedes the US Constitution and national sovereignty for all 194 member nations.

                The outcome of the UN/WHO Vote will be to empower the WHO to declare Health Mandates and Mandatory Vaccines for the 194 member nations. The Vaccines will be required for everyone without exception, no matter how sick you are or how religious.

                Once the Health Mandates are in place (Nov 28, 2022), it will be a short period of time before the next Pandemic is orchestrated and the Mandates are set in motion.

                The Health Passport (Mandatory Vaccines) will dictate that ONLY Vaccinated people can buy food. Or work, drive, have credentials, go into a bank, receive health care, and so on.

                Approximately 60% of the population will be Vaxxed, and 40% will remain “pureblood.”

                Now you have 60% set up to engage the 40%, who will HAVE to fight to obtain food. Bingo! This is your Civil War. It will take shape (100% certainty) over the next year or two.

                The Deep State is so hell bent on getting the UN/WHO Vote to amend the IHR passed next week, that they will ramp up everything possible to promote fear and distractions, and keep everyone’s attention off the vote.

                This is a much bigger event than 911, and the Civil War has been in the planning stages since the dust settled in Sept 2001. Consequently, you’ll see the same thing this weekend, where some sort of enormous shock to the system will probably happen May 21st-22nd.

                The Shocks and Kinetic Events (War) allow them to ramp up the fear to extraordinary levels, while the Deep State installs the biggest pieces of their plan to establish a one world government. With or without religious connotations!

                Civil War is their ONLY option to avoid a Revolution when they orchestrate a Global Economic Crash (“Great Reset”).

                The Food and Energy Supply Chains are being canceled right under our noses. The timing of these events coming on the heels of the COVID & Vax Campaign is very important.

                Don’t be surprised if the Ukraine War rapidly escalates to nuclear events this weekend. LoL – with or without Russia’s participation! The Deep State’s goal is to destroy the USA’s Economic Might, so if there are Deep State events (nukes or otherwise) it will most likely be felt right here in the USA.

                All of this is just setting the stage for Civil War. They would much rather us Kill each other, so they will stay with their time tested playbook of divide and conquer. This time via a Vax Mandate to have access to food. Civil War coming in 2023, or 2024 at the latest.

                I’m not a psychic or a prophet. I just read their Plans.

                • I’m afraid you’re correct. Are the “plans” you’ve read from the WEF website?

          • TO 1st Marine JARHEAD: You made me laught. Of course they won’t “get it” b/c you simply CAN NOT FIX STUPID !!! Got that? haha…

            • TYPO: sorry, You made a LAUGH!!! How did that T get in there? No I am not stupid, but I type fast and thus do make some typos. haha.

        • This was in reference to the ‘funny, Civil War is always said from the right’ comment–not sure why it posted down at the bottom.

  • The thing that most people don’t seem to comprehend is that crime is usually predated by inequality. Yes there are those who, for lack of a different word, are natural criminals. But for a lot of crimes its more like “whats the worst they can do to me that they haven’t already done “. High school graduates in some places are more destined to go to jail versus that being the minority of the graduating class. If we want crime to decrease we need to reinvest in these communities. Better paying jobs, the ability to learn trades or go to college, better choices than jail or if they can, the military. We only have to look at some inner cities to see that crime has become the only vocation available to most. People who say “just move” are probably much better off and have the resources to do so (but most have never been in the criminals shoes). If we want to decrease crime, then we need to change the circumstances that forces youth to become criminals.

    • Agree except that ship has sailed thanks to boomer “prudence” and “leadership”. Increasing inequality was never addressed over the decades and continued to get worse.

      • I have been poor before.
        I did not resort to crime.
        Worked harder, second job, then better job that I worked hard at and was rewarded for my efforts.
        But I feel that is not acceptable to some nowadays.

        • Me too……When I had no car, I walked or rode a bike to work…..worked as many jobs as I could, some employers ended up turning me away, not because I wasn’t qualified, but because I was getting very little sleep due to working so many part time jobs.

          I did not resort to crime….eventually found better jobs so I didn’t have to work so many of them….

    • “If we want to decrease crime, then we need to change the circumstances that forces youth to become criminals.”

      Err, no. I know many people who like myself had not good circumstances and no father present or earning. I never felt like I had no option other than a life of crime. We make way more than enough excuses for criminals already.

    • The inner cities are in the condition they are in because of the people who live there, not in spite of them. Many of them do not want the ‘better paying jobs’ you speak of because it requires work. I have seen such disadvantaged people given good work opportunities only to see them quit after a few weeks or a month because the life of crime seems easier to them. Some times the first paycheck is used to buy alcohol or drugs and they don’t return to work again. Everyone bears some responsibility for the life they live.

    • That is the Liberal line of thinking. But it is actually untrue.
      Most criminals want quick, easy money and lots of it. Plenty of partying.
      Not hard work and long hours at a mediocre job for 20 to 30 years and still end up having almost nothing.
      Most live by the motto: live fast and die young.
      Better paying Jobs, opportunities for learning trades or going to College can not compete with a culture that Glorifies the LFDY lifestyle.
      Crime is a path to getting rich, how do you think the rich, got that way?
      It was not by playing fair and “by the rules”. If so, we would not be sending so many White collar criminals to Jail. But usually they can either get around the laws, bribe their way out or don’t get caught.

    • Most poor people do not commit crimes.
      People who make immoral choices commit crimes.
      I think the real problem lies within the human heart, and the choice of whom one serves.

      • VAL, yes you are correct. It lies without the human HEART, and even the Bible tells us about the condition of our heart and who can know it. Evil is from the evil one (satan) and our Good come from above (GOD)…We do make our own choices and we can focus on doing what is RIGHT or doing what is WRONG. We actually seal our own fate. So we need to make good and better choices…I wish they would all apply to our government officials…Seems more and more are greedy and corrupt each year.

  • I have lived in my small very rural community for 4 plus years. We are surrounded by farmers and ranchers and are 30-45 min drive from small towns in three directions. There does seem to be an uptick in crime here. There have been shootings, home invasions, multiple police chases, theft, and harassment. We’ve had active shooter situations twice. The closest small town was involved in home invasion murders that were premeditated and preyed on women alone.
    I’m a widow. I live on a hillside that anyone can drive past and basically scope out my entire 2 acres from the road. When covid shutdowns started, I had strangers walking up my driveway asking to buy eggs and anything I might sell from my farm. It’s obvious I have cows, chickens, pigs, and a large garden. I’m seen as a producer. That also makes me a target should someone be desperate or deprived enough. Even if the system this working how it should, police are a minimum of 20 min away. I’ve been very aware of this.
    I’ve done what I can to make a plan for security should there be a big shtf event which includes family coming here and taking turns keeping watch on top of the hill with a rifle. But this slower shtf issue described in this article is a bigger concern for me.
    I’m very limited in some ways, but two ways I’ve been proactive about my concerns are networking within my community, making friends with solid neighbors, and I’ve bought two large guardian dogs. Yes, I know dogs can be taken out. But they are a barrier against casual crime, and they are an excellent alarm system. They aren’t to their full size yet, but when they are, they will be close to 150 lbs each.
    In the last two years, I’ve had to resort to setting booby traps with noisemakers around my place when homes were being systematically targeted on my street. At least with the dogs I don’t have to trip over fishing line strung around.

    • Dragonmaker
      I lived on a small farm and also had people driving-up all the time, even had my house broken into.
      Every place is different with different riff-raff and problems but for me installing a gate
      make an incredible difference. Not even locked most of the time but ALWAYS closed. Just not allowing
      cars to drive onto the property and people to easily walk in solved my issues with security.

      • I’ve lived on two farms in Australia, now it’s a bit different here, but people trespass a lot more than I think is reasonable. The worst part is when you point out that this is your land, and they argue the point, and say it isn’t, or so and so said they can be on there.

        I’ve been out stargazing with the telescope and found a car load of people sneaking around after midnight, I’ve kicked off a half dozen illegal shooters, I’ve kicked off three guys looking for somewhere to grow pot. My horses have been let out three times, the cows 6 times, the dogs once and the pigs 14 times. After I put padlocks on all the gates I’ve been verbally abused by a half dozen people for putting locks on the gates.

        Finally, my ex called the police on a drug grower, he was growing on my farm, I found it and put the cows on his crop, he let the cows out, so she called the police. A month later the house was burned down, and I moved away.

        Living out of town is wonderful, and I still live way out of town, but it also has it’s challenges.

      • Jerry, yes, this summer, one of my projects is putting in a perimeter fence with gates and solar electric. Just one more measure I can take.

    • Must be kinda nice though to live out in that sort of environment, however it might be a great idea for you to find someone to live with you (like rent a room) or try to have someone move onto the property so there are MORE than just you up there. Stay safe and be careful. Blessings to you and those 2 dogs should be some protection I would hope. But yes, someone can shoot them both so maybe you have a gun of your own and know how to use it.

  • Wow, very thought-provoking. And urgent, timely.

    I believe most Americans have been “freedom freeloaders,” expecting the right to make their own choices without doing a jolly thing to preserve liberty. The first thing is go LOCAL, where you can find out the facts. Look up CSPOA, the Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association. Learn how your local sheriff can protect your rights from lunatic Feds–and your duty to support them.

    Support local businesses, and buy local food. Read your local newspaper, a little one, not a Big City one. Go to church or other worship with a fellowship meal and chat.

    Go Local builds real civilization and order from the bottom up.

  • Thanks Fabian, for that very thought-provoking article. THIS is the scenario I’ve been worried about, not some EMP or big, overnight SHTF event. The reason this picture scares me so much is exactly because we can see it being played out in many third-world countries around the world. It’s a a genuine, realistic scenario and the way things are going I can easily see the US descending into a nightmare like this. I always thought (hoped) that going back to small, local communities where people have more traditional values and work together might be a solution. After reading your article I’m not so sure and, to be honest, I feel quite despondent. How can we stop what currently seems unstoppable?

    • Dear MJB,

      while falling from heaven always suck, I can assure you the scenario I describe is much, much better than an EMP or other SHTF. I´m trying to warn about the worsening of the conditions but having lived and experienced the First and Third worlds myself, I tell you: it´s far from being hell. Conflicts are hell. Wars and revolutions are hell.

      Life here is harder than in US or EU, but it´s a million times better than in conflicted places. It´s normal 90% of the time, just more fluid and unpredictable. There´s also a lot more people suffering with poverty and inequality, which is what you´re seeing happening in US right now. But even these wouldn´t want a war.

      A violent dictatorship can be hell too, but honestly I don´t see US, CA, EU or UK turning into Haiti, North Korea or Venezuela. No former world superpower has, not in modern history. I´m sure there´d be a war or revolution before that, which I´m afraid is a possibility. Who knows – we now have Australia, Austria and Germany going full-draconian on their populations, so we better watch out.

      And yes you´re right, this is unstoppable, because what´s happening now is the result of events and dynamics put in place too long ago. There´s always a delay.

  • I agree that it’s necessary to understand the patterns, in order to be psychologically prepared and therefore better able to act or react correctly when the time comes. And sadly, there are entirely too many damned if you do and damned if you don’t situations. You describe two in your article: paying a “collaboration” and joining a gang. All choices are poor in these cases. People will choose as best as they can, in order to survive.

    I live in a working class neighborhood, in a city with two colleges, a technical school, and opportunity. And yet people from out of town came and shot up a bunch of empty houses, for no real reason that I know of. One of those houses was three doors from mine. I believe they were testing the police and the neighborhood reaction, gauging what they could get away with. We support our police here and now they’re in jail. But it happened, and can happen again. Crime is escalating, political corruption is escalating, taxes are escalating. It’s good to see the patterns, that I may act and react appropriately when the time comes.

  • It seems to me that a tribal culture becomes more prevalent in these SHTF scenarios. Pretty foreign to us here in the states unless you live by a city with a large migrant population. Aren’t gangs pretty much tribal?
    Pretty hard to fight that mentality with any honor or expectation of such.

    Out here in our rural area the biggest concern is still meth and the like. The break ins and thefts seem to all be related to the drug trade.

    We live very rural and off the main road, actually down a dirt road. Mostly local traffic if any.
    Sheriff help is pretty far off so we have done a few things to protect our castle.
    We have dogs, great alarm system. Also have the property posted which won’t do much for defense but it does tell folks we like our privacy. Have made sure all entries are secure and we have great ability to see around the house. Nowhere for the bad guys to hide. The property is clean but looks pretty ordinary. Nothing of value in sight. We have Night Guards around, which are little flashing red lights (solar operated) that scare off predators but look like a security system.
    We are locked and loaded if needed. Continually upgrading for more security and keeping alert as to what may be going on in our locale.
    Doesn’t sound like much but we pretty alert which helps and take nothing for granted. We will not be bugging out save for a wildfire event but digging in. This is a hill we are both willing to die on and we understand the risks. We do not live in fear of the unknown but live our lives every day. Hope y’all can do the same.

    • “It seems to me that a tribal culture becomes more prevalent in these SHTF scenarios”

      (grin) it’s tribal culture that DRIVES this scenario.

  • The biggest reason the US is slipping towards 3rd world status is the illegal immigration problem.
    We are letting 3rd worlder’s into the country in record numbers and then are surprised when they bring their 3rd world ways with them; Crime, Corruption Authoritarian ways and of just being Sheep.
    They ran from this stuff and are not willing to stand against it, so they allow it to happen, even promote it. as it has been their way of life and they are comfortable with it.

    Many of them refuse to assist Law enforcement, even when their own people abuse them, which allows this 3rd world system to grow and prosper. It also allows corrupt politicians to spread it through the rest of the population. The more Sheep there are the easier it is to do what ever they want to us.

    • But of course. Damn aliens. They blew up the debt, printed all the money being pumped into the everything-bubble, locked everyone down to contain a virus, started multi-trillion wars and offshored production to China while indulging in consumerism. Damn aliens, damn aliens.

      • “Damn aliens. They blew up the debt, printed all the money being pumped into the everything-bubble, locked everyone down to contain a virus, started multi-trillion wars and offshored production to China while indulging in consumerism.”

        (grin) pretty close. there’s more than one group of aliens, you know ….

      • LOL don’t hold back Fabian, Tellus how you REALLY FEEL 🙂

        As the Nov 5th Speech in V for Vendetta says, “Yes many leaders did much to destroy our freedoms but take a look into the Mirror to see who enabled it”. (Paraphrased, he said it MUCH better)

        EXTRA CREDIT if you happen to know what Nov 5th was in England.

        Blaming others is the action we dismiss as childlike or gasp horrors Snowflake.

        We let this situation grow for decades under the “Go along to get along” or the parable of the Arab and the Camel sneaking into the tent because Camel “It’s COLD out here, be kind sir” eventually as the 3rd World Occurs like the Arab, we are outside the tent shivering while the Camel is nice and warm.

        The parable is worth looking up. You *might* see Nancy Pelosi or Mitch McDonnel in the story.

        The Titanic is sinking, best you see to provide a lifeboat for you and yours. A shooting Civil War would just set the sinking Titanic ON FIRE.

        • LOL Michael I posted a “Remember remember the 5th of November” on my IG account on the 5th of november. V is a fantastic flick too BTW, love it. We must remember.

          On what I feel… I´m over 50, I´ve lived the Era of America. Can´t change that, and don´t want to. To mean that I don´t turn a blind eye to the mistakes and horrors of US, but I admire the American principles of individual freedom, liberty, free market, the separation of powers, etc. and think the balance is positive.

          No country or people are perfect, but America is a trully remarkable human experiment in my opinion. Somehow along the way that was lost, but OK that´s life. Maybe it gets reborn again. I don´t feel sad for what´s happening, it´s been a wild ride and that´s how the world is. I´m a Stoic, or try to be, so I take it as it comes, whatever will be, will be.

          If that doesn´t answer you, here it goes: I feel like an observer. I feel like part of the whole humankind now. We´re all in for a good lesson going ahead, one that we seem to need every once in a while because it´s in our nature to forget and repeat the good and the bad. But we learn, and advance through pain. Things will just be different.

          America is what it is because of those values and principles, and also because of the way it drew and welcomed brains and power regardless of where they came from throughout the eras thanks to those values. Of course, that means some bad apples will take advantage of that same system too, but it´s part of the game. Can´t have one without the other, right?

          More to the point, I believe that blaming others is easy and wins points, hearts and minds (especially in this zeitgeist), but solves nothing. Taking extreme ownership and responsibility does. No one wants bad aliens. It´s not a matter of being fair or unfair, right or wrong. It takes courage to look inside.

    • I think the main issue with illegal aliens is the “illegal” aspect. And it seems that many citizens of this country have been too willing to tolerate illegal, unconstitutional actions by governments at all levels for far too long. Perhaps pursuing the American Dream has put many on a hamster wheel, looking at the next shiny gadget to acquire and forgetting what the true purpose of freedom is?

    • Mic:
      It’s not necessarily the third worlders who brought the crime with them. We’ve had crime ever since the country started… it’s part and parcel of people living in proximity to each other. The “I din’t see nuthin'” ethos of non-cooperation with the authorities has been going on for generations, mainly because of organized crime and corruption in local law enforcement. Pretending that you saw and heard nothing is a way of staying alive still for many people of all ethnicities regardless of whether they were born in the US or not.
      It all boils down to money….if you have a little, you may find yourself a victim. If you have a lot, you can buy protection and live in a gated community or secure apartment with guards. If you have none, you may find yourself participating in what you normally would consider criminal activities just to, again, stay alive.

      Consider for a moment what you would be willing to do to feed your kids or keep them safe in a world where truly NO ONE has your back.

      • I was in that situation as a young father. What did I do? I got a job and worked hard. Many people say crime is their only option. Criminals do tend to lie and excuse themselves, don’t they.

  • While some blame COVID, a number of places were already seeing increases in crime, namely to no bail out the same day laws, increased in value of stolen goods before prosecution, police being told not to make arrests, and then there was that DeFund the Police movement. Notice how crime spiked in those cities and now many of them are ReFunding the Police.
    It has been noted the mayor of San Fran has just announced she is going to get tough on crime . . . after crime came to Bev Hills residents neighborhoods. Some even have applied for carry concealed permits or even, shock, buying a gun!
    I think it is a too late, wont be able to get that genie back in the bottle now that some have seen how easy it is to do a smash and grab, or some cities will keep their lax crime laws.

  • I saw an article yesterday where the country of Turkey is about to make “Hording ” a crime. It appears that their currency is becoming worthless much like ours due to overspending by their government. Yup, the poop is hitting fan all over God’s world.

    • You touched on a very, very important issue, Seminole Wind. I should´ve mentioned it, thanks for bringing to attention.

      There are already hints at price control in US from the government and even the congress. They´re now asking for agencies to look into the prices of energy, into the profit of corporations and businesses… Price and wage control are really bad, and presidents and senators even mentioning this is an inauspicious sign in my opinion.

      I´ve seen this countless times here and also in Argentina and other places. It never works the way they want, but I can assure you it causes shortages, rationings, inflation, hoarding, and more in 100% of times. This is a sign of things starting to break down.

      I´d keep an eye out because this is exaclty how things happen when the economy and politics are crazy.

      • FYI, the Fed is expecting to taper QE, and raise interest rates three times in 2022, and again in 2023.
        It is expected to be small interest rate increases as not to bust Wall St and the real estate market bubbles.
        However, as we all know, the Fed is usually months behind the real inflation rate, and a few points behind what the interest rates should be to combat inflation.
        I know of a few people who got raises around 5%. Sounds good till the inflation rate was announced as 6.2%.
        The real inflation rate as assessed pre-1998 when the government change how they calculate inflation, is closer to 15%.
        This past Tuesday, the wholesale inflation rate was close to 10%.

        • Yep, but they´ll back this up and reopen the spigots at the first sight of WS tantrum or SP&500 meltdown.

          Inflation in US is above 10% as anyone who goes to a grocery store or gas station knows. It´s above 10% YOY here too, officially. Many items are up 50% or more. I´m glad I walk, ride bikes and use a scooter to move around. Good to save money, burn calories and mental hygiene (lol).

          It takes some time for people to start panicking over this. We´ve been in non-inflationary winds for the last 30 yrs, no one knows how to act or what to think, but people will wake up.

          Right now it´s a novelty, no one is putting much faith or people are just waiting to see what´s going to happen. And it happens slowly, then suddenly.

          Pray the US govt. don´t go the way of price and wage control, because this is the worse can happen to the economy, I promise you. It´s past Third World, it´s “1980´s banana republic” stuff.

          • “Pray the US govt. don´t go the way of price and wage control”

            … probably won’t. what is more likely is the government will subsidize the “poor” with stimulus and bonus payments, obtained by borrowing more fiat dollars. the goal is wealth-transfer and direct controlled dependency.

            • Has happened before in US, and they’re hinting at it again already.

              There’s a call, a mood for intervening and I confess this worries me, because I’ve seen it and it starts this way.

              But sure, could be both.

            • The one trick Ponies in CONgress (spelling intentional) know only to “create MOAR Fake Money”.

              They CANNOT “Create a single Loaf of Bread” to buy with that Fake Money.

              When the EBT cards cannot feed their families, REAL TROUBLE will erupt.

              I also KNOW the Powers that Be will use MAX Propaganda to Point that EBT RAGE at anybody else. Aka Us “Deplorables” The HORDERS.

              If you don’t have some storage foods HIDDEN away where a burned-out home will not affect it, you’re going to be in trouble. None of us are so Bad*ss enough to prevent Molotov cocktail Mobs from burning us out.

              Even a Rabbit is smart enough to have two or more exits from their den AND somewhere else to run to. Your Family needs a Rally Point with a trusted friend and so does your trusted friends. Running away with nothing and NO Plan is being a Refugee.

              Proverbs 9 7All the brothers of a poor man hate him— how much more do his friends avoid him! He may pursue them with pleading, but they are nowhere to be found.

              • “They CANNOT “Create a single Loaf of Bread” to buy with that Fake Money”

                like kipling said in the gods of the copybook headings, “we had plenty of money, but there was nothing our money could buy”

        • “the Fed is expecting to taper QE, and raise interest rates three times in 2022, and again in 2023”

          talk. doing so would vastly increase “interest” payments, requiring the govt to tax and “borrow” even more. and not just them – pretty much the entire economy is built around 1) continued printing, 2) continued borrowing, 3) at low rates. raising rates at all will crash it all.

  • “There’s little guns can do to solve bigger issues”

    well, for a significant proportion of the “preppersphere”, their personal issues are the only issues that actually exist, and guns will indeed solve their personal issues – just as soon as the OTHER guns can no longer be brought to bear against THEM (that’s why so many of them hate “government”).

  • Thank you, Fabian, for an insightful article. I agree wtih you that this is the direction things will likely take. I am doing what I can to be ready for the ride. Wishing you the best!

  • Well, I don’t know if this will get printed but I have always said you bring in people from 3rd world countries and you’ll soon look like theirs.

    But why? Because they have had thousands of years to change more then the pilgrims did and they only needed a few hundred years to become the greatest country in the world but these people never did change during that entire time.

    So, chances are these people won’t change either in your country and sometimes even given the chance too.

    But countries that have changed they won’t immigrate these people to our country. Like Europeans and particularly the Japanese in the Asian world. Productive, intelligent people with proven track records.

    • well to be fair to everyone else, the “pilgrims” didn’t just pop up out of nowhere, they were at the head of 1400 years of greco-christian-germanic cultural progress.

  • Countries who have more of a homogeneous population appear to be more resistant towards descending from First-World to Third-World status. A shared history along with shared values blunts that decent. Several of the Asian nations are good examples. At one time so were the Scandinavians, but allowing immigration from Third-World countries have brought them only severe social and economic problems. The same is occurring here in the US. Millions have come here both legally and illegally who have no intent on becoming Americans and embracing American culture (if there is such a thing any longer). They are clannish and form enclaves wherever they end up. A local guy who does high-pressure washing was contracted to go to a federal facility in my state where hundreds of Afghans had been deposited awaiting whatever. He was contracted to pressure-wash the corridors of human waste because the Afghans didn’t know what a toilet was or how to use it so they just did their business out in the corridors. Younger Afghans were busy stealing anything not nailed down, including parts off the facility generators! You didn’t read anything about that in the MSM, did you? That is going on all across this country… maybe in your town or city. Of course they all will be sucking up whatever benefits we pay for, probably for all their lives. Couple that viral infusion together with all the good little Marxists our education system is churning out and the government and corporate corruption and we should be a Third-world *&^% hole by next week!

  • “Who are we gonna shoot? The politicians? The corrupt cops? The lazy public workers? The stupid laws? That would solve nothing. All it would mean would be civil war, which only makes everything worse.”

    Many think different. Who wins in a Civil War?
    Thats a million dollar answer.

    • “Who wins in a Civil War?”

      there will be no civil war. civil war requires two mutually independent sides, capable of waging war against the other. no such situation exists in the u.s. at this point – neither side is independent, and neither side is capable of waging war independently.

  • Things WILL get worse because it’s planned and the government of the USA is committed to that plan along with nearly every other national government. World War III is planned, mass depopulation is planned, and enslavement of all who survive is planned. Many who scoff and believe their leaders will die and not be able to scoff anymore.

  • Our civil war 2.0 is coming. 60% of Americans are hand-to-mouth poor. What will they do when they’re hungry, homeless and at their wits end? When they lose it all they will lose it. Are you going to shoot a family of 5 when their emaciated selves show up at your door? The perpetrators of this dystopian future are untouchable so you will take out your frustration on the nearest ones who are victims just like you. You can be certain that your vision of SHTF will be nothing like you imagined.

    • “Are you going to shoot a family of 5 when their emaciated selves show up at your door?“

      No. I will help build them back up. I will have barns to muck, Flocks to shepherd, herds to tend, Weeds to sickle or pull, Hooves to trim, fence to go up, animals to slaughter. There is no shortage of jobs around here to put calluses on soft hands and give people a sense of accomplishment that only comes from honest labor.

      Nobody’s vision of SHTF will be like one imagines. Hell, I don’t even like thinking about it. But, that won’t prevent me from formulating a plan. Plans should be malleable anyway.

      Life has taught me to be flexible but reliable and decisive. Sounds contradictory?..yes.. but, that’s what I’ve learned that works.

  • Good on ya, Daisy, to re-post this one.
    Looking around, things are not better.
    The downward spiral continues.
    Gas prices hitting record new highs, almost daily.
    Empty shelves are even more common.
    Cost of nearly everything has gone up and continues to go up. Also seeing more shrinkflation.
    Then we have the newly formed Ministry of Truth.

  • You are describing the lawlessness in which third countries operate which is WHY they are the third world and will NEVER change otherwise they would have, already.

    The people have to change and have proven over and over again they will not in those areas. They had many chances to change but they will not.

  • Godless people with godless words and godless vision are prone to fear and failure. The Lord, the Christ, the Redeemer, the Son of God IS IN CONTROL. Do not doubt this and don’t forget.
    The world has enough prophets of doom. The Lord’s people own victory and freedom and are favored by the Lord. Call on the Lord.

    Psa 116:13 (NIV)
    Psa 116:13 NIV – 1 I love the LORD, for he heard my voice; he heard my cry for mercy.2 Because he turned his ear to me, I will call on him as long as I live.3 The cords of death entangled me, the anguish of the grave came over me; I was overcome by distress and sorrow.4 Then I called on the name of the LORD: “LORD, save me!”5 The LORD is gracious and righteous; our God is full of compassion.6 The LORD protects the unwary; when I was brought low, he saved me.7 Return to your rest, my soul, for the LORD has been good to you.8 For you, LORD, have delivered me from death, my eyes from tears, my feet from stumbling,9 that I may walk before the LORD in the land of the living.10 I trusted in the LORD when I said, “I am greatly afflicted”;11 in my alarm I said, “Everyone is a liar.”12 What shall I return to the LORD for all his goodness to me?13 I will lift up the cup of salvation and call on the name of the LORD.14 I will fulfill my vows to the LORD in the presence of all his people.15 Precious in the sight of the LORD is the death of his faithful servants.16 Truly I am your servant, LORD; I serve you just as my mother did; you have freed me from my chains.17 I will sacrifice a thank offering to you and call on the name of the LORD.18 I will fulfill my vows to the LORD in the presence of all his people,19 in the courts of the house of the LORD— in your midst, Jerusalem. Praise the LORD.

  • I have survived the fall of 5 countries while I was in them. South Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Iran. It can go from scary to horrifying in a split second. In the Philippines we had to pay “protection” to the mafia there but when the crash came it was all bets off. ((I didn’t mention the Philippines on purpose.)) Please stock up on food, water and medicines, even if you don’t need medicines. Also, tobacco and liquor. Even in a Muslim country liquor can save your life.

    The rule of thumb is to have enough gold/silver to get out of the country. ((Think bribing the border guards. I know people who sold themselves into slavery just to get out of Iran in 1978-79.))

    If you haven’t lived through it, you can’t imagine it. I was 20 years old when we were evacuating Saigon. Hundreds of women offered me sex just to let them get on a helicopter out of the country. Hundreds more killed the next person in line so that they could advance to my position. Some, I am sorry to say, even through their babies away in order to get on a chopper out. You do not know what a person will do when they are pushed against a corner. They will fight like a tiger. Even a 90 pound tiger is dangerous. Please listen.

    Shalom,
    CC

  • Well, Fabian… I can tell you now that about all of the negatives mentioned are already pervasive and growing here in the US, and probably throughout the West. People will have to learn to get by and survive in spite of the government, corrupt institutions, and crime. Sit out in front of a ‘Big Box’ store and just observe people coming and going. How many overweight and/or obese people would you expect to see? I do this occasionally when waiting for the wife. The majority are overweight or obese, out of shape, and often seem to struggle getting from the car to the door and vice versa. The point is that Americans are soft, even pampered. They are not accustomed to hardship. You don’t see overweight people in Third World countries. The deteriorating conditions you describe would be more than many Americans could cope with, at least initially.

  • Mr Ommar no god no peace
    Know GOD Know PEACE
    And then when The Mysteries OF GODS will is read in a very
    GOOD BOOK Mankind then can be seen an heard as a ADULT
    For The WONDER of it ALL when we are children like when our Parents told us their is no SANTA it should than make sense
    That A LIE is very Power Fool
    Mr Ommar evil is real as long as it is not in all capitals it can be
    SUFFERED
    And then there comes a time it can happen in the blink of the eye
    EVIL steps into the LIGHT
    AND IT CRAVES FEAR
    TODAY you have articulated EVIL seems to be in all CAPITALS
    Many now See evil as still manageable
    Mr Ommar our first American prayer our American mission statement
    The Declaration of Independence is in reality written to
    ONE PEOPLE
    People Who only FEAR GOD
    Mr Ommar please reread our DECLARATION
    First read it with the wonder of a child
    THEN Read it as A ADULT
    And then SIR
    Read this Psalm from a very GOOD BOOK
    PSALM 91
    The Soldiers Prayer
    Mr Ommar it is written to YOU
    The WAR for SOULS is here Mr Ommar
    ONE PEOPLE are GODS wild Cards
    GOD is not going to play with us He is going to PLACE
    YOU into the BATTLE to trample that DRAGON
    The men who trampled The Lion showed ONE PEOPLE
    GODS Devine Intervention
    These Men called it plainly
    As they signed their names to a simple Pledge
    And for the support of DIVINE PROVIDENCE,
    Mr Ommar the Master of LIES has truly no idea what ONE PEOPLE
    Are capable of many have lived to tell of their battle against EVIL
    When they have said the Soldier’s Prayer
    Today ,tomorrow but without a doubt in my heart an Soul
    ONE PEOPLE are many
    We WIN and our Warrior King Rules
    All written in a Very GOOD BOOK

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