This 2020 Food Shortage Simulation Predicted 400% INCREASE in Food Prices by 2030

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[Editorial Note: Given current events, rereading this OP article from October 2020 is timely. Also, it’s interesting – and unfortunate – to note how these things are all beginning right on the schedule laid out.]

Recently, I wrote an article discussing the looming food crisis in the United States and the rest of the world. While it might seem like paranoia to some readers, the information provided in that article is very real. In fact, I’m not the only one that’s been thinking about it.

Back in 2015, 65 people showed up at the World Wildlife Fund’s headquarters in Washington D.C. These individuals were international policymakers, corporate businessmen, academics, and “leaders in thought.” Their goal? To run a simulation of a world food crisis that would begin in 2020 and run to 2030.

The press release of the event was published on the Big Ag corporation Cargill website and revealed that the food shortage simulation that the decade between 2020 and 2030 would see two major food crises. During this time, prices would rise 400% of the long term average, there would be a number of climate-related weather events, governments would be toppled in Ukraine and Pakistan, and famine would force refugees from Myanmar, Chad, Sudan, and Bangladesh.

Does any of this sound familiar yet?

In the simulation, one governmental solution was a tax on meat. Another? A global carbon tax.

(To learn more about how to preserve what you raised this past summer, check out our free QUICKSTART Guide to home canning.)

A meat tax. A carbon tax.

Seriously. This has to sound familiar by now.

The press release stated:

On Monday and Tuesday, 65 international policymakers, academics, business and thought leaders gathered at the World Wildlife Fund’s headquarters in Washington DC to game out how the world would respond to a future food crisis.

The game took the players from the year 2020 to 2030. As it was projected, the decade brought two major food crises, with prices approaching 400 percent of the long term average; a raft of climate-related extreme weather events; governments toppling in Pakistan and Ukraine; and famine and refugee crises in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Chad and Sudan.

Climate, hunger, civil unrest and spiking food prices came together at the Food Chain Reaction game in Washington DC this week. Cooperation mostly won the day. Along with WWF, the Center for American Progress and the Center for Naval Analyses, Cargill was one of Food Chain Reaction’s organizers. The company was represented in the game by Corporate Vice President Joe Stone.

. . . . .

Over two days, the players – divided into teams for Africa, Brazil, China, the EU, India, the U.S., international business and investors, and multilateral institutions – crafted their policy responses as delegations engaged in intensive negotiations.

Of course, working “globally” turned out to be the most beneficial.

Cooperation mostly won the day over the short term individual advantage. Teams pledged to build international information networks and early warning systems on hunger and crops together, invest jointly in smart agricultural technology and build up global food stocks as a buffer against climate shocks.

In the face of a steep price spike with looming global food shortages in 2022, the EU at one point suspended its environmental rules for agriculture and introduced a tax on meat. Both measures were quickly reversed in 2025, as harvests went back to normal and tensions eased in the hypothetical universe.

Carbon and meat taxes are “a possibility.”

The most eye-catching result, however, was a deal between the U.S., the EU, India and China, standing in for the top 20 greenhouse gas emitters, to institute a global carbon tax and cap CO2 emissions in 2030.

“We’ve learned that a carbon tax is a possibility in years ahead,” acknowledged Stone. “But before we can consider moving ahead with a measure like that, we must study it and understand it much better. We have to avoid sudden market distortions and unforeseen consequences.”

Stone said he was impressed with the complexity of the game and the second and third order consequences of some of the decisions that were taken. “Take the meat tax Europe wanted to impose, and think through that. What meat are you going to tax – does that mean poultry and beef or aquaculture as well? Where do you levy the tax, where does the money go, what are the unintended consequences?

The game was built over the course of months, with maximal realism in mind. The scenario was extrapolated from events that have actually occurred in the real world, such as the food crisis of 2008-2009 or the recent string of hottest years and months on record.

Cargill economist Tim Bodin, who helped design the game and sat on the judges’ panel that evaluated the team’s moves, said he was surprised by the degree of cooperation. “Most people started out with a short-term perspective, but transitioned to long-term measure pretty quickly – they started working to strengthen resiliency instead of just putting out fires.”

Keep in mind, this press release and the exercise took place in 2015 yet it’s almost as if they were reading the script for 2020.

There’s a clear agenda.

The fact is, we know there is an agenda for all of these things – food shortages, meat tax, global carbon tax and if COVID has been anything, it has been the most helpful little virus to ever have existed. That is, as long as you’re a member of the global feudal overlords. If you’ve been reading my articles recently, I’d encourage you to pay attention to what’s being said. Self-reliance is about to become a whole lot more important.

Do you think the price of food will increase as much as predicted in this simulation? How are you planning to prepare for this? If you knew of this previously, what do you think now?  Share your thoughts in the comments below.

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About Robert

Robert Wheeler has been quietly researching world events for two decades. After witnessing the global network of NGOs and several ‘Revolutions’ they engineered in a number of different countries, Wheeler began analyzing current events through these lenses.


Picture of Robert Wheeler

Robert Wheeler

Robert Wheeler has been quietly researching world events for two decades. After witnessing the global network of NGOs and several 'Revolutions' they engineered in a number of different countries, Wheeler began analyzing current events through these lenses.

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  • There are way too many humans living in this earth. Need at least a 50% reduction. That should keep food prices stable.

    • The problem is not that there are too many people. The earth has the potential to create more than enough food for the current population. The problem is that governments and tyrants keep people from being productive in many places. The U.S. regularly produces too much food for its population and sells or gives much of it away to poorer countries. Each human, given the opportunity, has the potential to work and create more than enough food and shelter for his/her needs.

      • Not really Shoshannah. Have you ever tried to grow anything for consumption? It’s pretty hard and demanding, very time/energy/resources consuming. I’m not talking about growing organics as a hobby in the backyard. Even to feed a family a balanced diet on the long term is quite a challenge, and it demands a crazy space too.

        Takes yrs to develop the knowledge and still, crops are lost, animals get sick and need care, food and water, things go wrong. One must dedicate so much time and energy to this that it’s impossible to grow kids, work or do much else. It’s a lifelong endeavor.

        I agree that govts. keep a tight leash on this but it’s for sanitary reasons. One sickness or infection can spread and ravage a good portion of the yearly crop in a country, wreaking havoc and causing enormous economical and supply deficits and shortages. And there are hundreds of threats to the cultures.

        I’m not trying to discourage anyone from trying it, just saying how hard it can be in reality.

      • Why do people get so offended when someone mentions that there are too many people on this planet? Back before we experienced pretty much unlimited access to food and our basic needs (for most of the population in the USA) nature kept populations pretty much in check. People were killed off on a regular basis and that included children just by living life in general. Now we have people living well into their hundreds who should have died from disease but are keeping the medical industrial complex alive with surgeries, etc. Is it a quality of life to keep someone alive until they are 100+ who has dementia and no control over their own bodily functions anymore?

        In reality technology is making it harder for more people to be successful and provide a comfortable life for themselves and their families. Less people are needed to do the work and so people not having as many children should be something everyone should think about. The more people there are the less life is valued. Go to a third world country if you don’t think this is true. There it is even more dog eat dog than in the USA. But it is coming here. Sooner rather than later.

        • I think like you. Long ago when we placed human life at the top. Since then we’ve tried to keep everybody alive regardless of medical conditions. We are working against nature and it will be our end. These seem to be terrible thoughts, but we have to remember we’re part of nature too. Maintaining our superiority over all other existing life is wrong. Ymmv

        • I completely agree Jason. Even living to 100 is not an accomplishment anymore and is a lot more common than people realize. I don’t know why people get so offended at the notion that people are being kept alive for the sake of being kept alive when they are incontinent both ways, can’t get out of bed, have dementia which eventually means your body will forget how to swallow, etc if you are unlucky enough to die before it progresses and more. Did you also know people with dementia can many times revisit childhood trauma because they can regress to being children. Imagine the horror for a demented adult reliving when their parent sexually abused/raped them over and over. This happens and it is heartbreaking. So many people have no clue about the reality of how hard it is to die in America.

    • OK, Brady: we nominate YOU to go tell all those “extra people” that they need to get on with it and just die already. Because that way, there’ll be enough food for self righteous posers drunk on delusions that they have the right to say that some should live while others must die

      • You obviously have no experience with a person with alz or dementia. If you did and that family member made it to the last stages of the disease you would be singing a different tune.

    • There is no food crisis, only misuse of land. Look at how much land is under lawns, which could instead be used for growing food. If we put half of the space of U.S. lawns alone, under food, we could feed the nation.

    • OH, my population control and the Bill Gates agenda. Are you kin to him? He said that we have to many people ON this earth. Henry Kissinger said the extras were “useless eaters”. Oh my…Are you planning to be one of the ones that is reduced? I would think not. But you’re okay if they reduce the others, that will be alright huh?

      • Why don’t you go visit a memory care facility and take a tour to see the reality of life for people with dementia. Better yet volunteer to do the dirty work and clean the feces and urine on these people 3, 4 or more times a day. It is easy to talk about something you have no clue about but these people are being warehoused to the tune of 5,000 to 6,000 plus dollars a month in these facilities. If it wasn’t such a lucrative business you can bet they would not be keeping these people alive with invasive treatments and procedures. Everything is about money it has nothing to do with the quality of life. No one is saying just start smothering a person with dementia with a pillow. But you have dementia patients being treated for cancer and other illnesses by doctors and family members forcing doctors to keep treating these people for everything under the sun. It is insane. You have dermatologists wanting to treat skin cancers on people with dementia and more. It is absolute nonsense and beyond stupid.

  • Food crisis? Perhaps man made to address a fake crisis. It amazes me how smart mankind has become. The smarter they become the more stupid they reason.

  • Who are you to say who lives or dies? Clearly you haven’t figured out that you are among that number as well. And it’s much higher than fifty percent. The elite want ninety percent of the population killed. The only members allowed in will be the billionaires. And that’s not you. But praise God He’s going to interrupt their wicked plans.

    • YES and according to scriptures JESUS (YESHUA real name) will appear back to planet earth by the end of 2029. He was to return between 2018-2028-2029. NO, we don’t know the day or the hour but we were told in the Bible to watch and to know the signs of the times that we live in. We were to be alive-awake-aware and alert to the signs. We were encouraged to be watchman on the wall…JESUS will appear and He will certainly interrupt their wicked plans, and Anastasia can take that info to the bank hahaha…GOD has His plan and humans can’t stop it. Nor injections nor Bill Gates either or the elite…They will ALL die too and they won’t be taking their $$$$ with them either!!!

    • If the elite really wanted 90% of the population killed they would have done it already. People thought the covid vaxx would be killing people off in droves. I see no evidence of this. Yes some have died from the vaxx and some damaged physically or emotionally but it hasn’t seemed to have made a dent in the over all population in the USA and globally. My city is just as crowded today as it was when COVID was first released. I see no difference.

      Whoever created life on this planet is the cause of the suffering on this planet. The entire system is corrupt and flawed with ALL living things reliant on the suffering of another to survive.

      And if your god hasn’t done anything yet chances are 100% he is not going to interrupt anything. All one has to do is look at history to see the extreme evil and wickedness that has ruled this planet from the very beginning. The history of the world is one soaked in blood and injustice.

  • I don’t trust any simulations, they are only as good or as biased, as the data they are made from.
    The ” simulation” or model for the Covid 19 predicted millions dead from the virus in the US alone.
    Food shortages always occur, mostly in the third world nations.
    So I am sure some will occur. Some groups might try to manipulate a crises to increase prices.
    Nothing new in any of that.
    Self sufficiency is always the best choice. But a person can always adjust their diet also.
    Food producers must sell their products to make a profit, long term storage is not an option. So there is a limit to how much they can do in manipulation of amounts or prices. The Economic rules of Supply and Demand take over. As does National security rules.

    Globalism is a failure. Trying to shift food resources beyond a certain point does not work. So in countries that refuse to produce adequate food for their population, they will see starvation and a reduction in population and the demand for food.
    Nature always balances things out, no matter how much man interferes.

  • In WV, some prices in Oct 2020 are the same as 2019. Others have doubled. But there is a good side to this–preppers have risen from 1 or 2% to 52%. Of course that raises food prices in the short term. But if things get as bad as we fear, 100 million of Americans will have enuf to eat at least for a while.

    On the other hand, all those trillions of bailouts while jobs are “inessential” may well mean hyperinflation of 1000% in a year. That would be a lot harder to take, especially for once-a-year COLA like social insecurity. The only solution is gardening, including chickens or other animals, and save your own seeds.

  • I strongly distrust the motives of those running such simulations every bit as much as the broken computer models from Ferguson in England. When the Rockefeller quarter was theorizing back in 2010 about how a pandemic might behave, and then is in the same corner as eugenics-obsessed megalomanic Bill Gates who funded a pandemic simulation in the fall of 2019 just in time to capitalize on the fear that the “surprise” Wu-Flu would make possible, it’s time to dig deeper into the history of such zillionaire string-pullers and wannabee tyrants. Perhaps it’s no surprise that tyrants of a feather slither together.

    Gates vaccines were banned from multiple 3rd world countries because of the horrific numbers of injuries and outright deaths those vaccines caused — for which Gates showed no remorse or conscience whatsoever. The Rockefellers have been pushing faulty vaccines at least as far back as their vaccine killed some 50 to 100 million people worldwide circa 1918 that was covered up by deceitful labeling as the mysterious “Spanish Flu.” Pushing petroleum-based medications at sky-high patented pricing while doing everything possible to destroy naturopathic / holistic medicine has been their obscene goal for a medical cartel ever since. The hardback “Murder by Injection…” by Eustace Mullins provides a chilling look at that history.

    And now with the advent of a plandemic that has generated enough fear that monetary tyrants are preparing to jam down our throats to create a global digital cashless economy monopoly, this is laying the groundwork for the most extensive tyranny in recorded world history. Michael Maloney said that the Soviet Union crashed their currency some seven times during their bloody years before their pre-internet 1989 collapse — but that was without the ability to counterfeit digitally with lightning speed.

    So yes it’s trivially easy to create computer simulations based on garbage statistics and evil assumptions, but the ugly motives of the wannabee tyrants promoting such trash are critically important to expose.


    • Remember when Bill Gates was this cool computer nerd? A great guy that nerds like myself could admire?

      Not sure what happened, or how, but somewhere along the line, he became Mr. Burns from “The Simpsons”. A cold selfish man drunk on delusions of getting to say who lives and who dies. The only difference between Billy and “spooky dude” Soros is that Gates doesn’t LOOK like he’s undead

  • Food shortage is one type of crisis that worries me. People go wild and feral when hungry and everything else starts to unravel pretty fast when that happens. Just read about famine in the past China Ukraine Venezuela The Potato Famine in Ireland and so on. It’s ugly.

  • United States alone, 27 trillion in debt? There are only 7 billion people in the world. Seems silly the gov’t doesn’t know how to give people their money back to spend in the economy. If everyone in the world received 1 billion, there would still be money left for their welfare programs.

    • 1 trillion = 1,000 billion. So, divide 27 trillion by 7 billion (27,000,000,000,000 / 7,000,000,000) and each person gets about $3,800.

      Not a small sum of money, especially if you are a Sudanese goat herder and living off less than a dollar a day, but certainly not enough to retire on.

  • Remember, this is a SIMULATION, which if you remember with COVID, is guesswork at best. They are playing a video game with various opportunities for input – and getting paid by someone to do it. However, they never stop working to learn how to manipulate the world scene – which is what they expect to do. They hope that this will help them in their attempt to control and tax the elements of the world through imagined disasters and the like.

  • It’s possible that too low prices will cause a shortage of food. It appears we are in a deflationary cycle, much like the depression in the 1930s. When people cannot afford the price of foods they cut back and don’t waste or substitute other types of food.. This causes low prices for the actual producers who no longer can profit. They dump their products to try and get the price back up (much like the dairy farmers now and in the 30s) or go bankrupt.

    A deflationary depression has hit the tight oil business. Many are going under because the prices are too low to make a profit. There is a narrow pricing band in all commerce where, when it goes out of that range, the price is too low for the producers and the same price is too high for the consumers.

    If worker’s wages do not keep up with prices producers need to make a profit, you have a dilemma.

  • This post is a little late. I was checking on my pantry preps yesterday,I randomly picked a can of chili to eat. Good thing we weren’t in the middle of an emergency. About an hour later I was on the toilet for my private shtf . Rest ofthe day was spent running back and forth to the bathroom. People,randomly check your pantry preps and other stockpiles of preps. Check to see your propane stove still works,see if you have enough propane. Check your tents for leaks,dry rot, missing pegs,etc. Look for critters in your stored food,check,check,check

  • If only Big Agriculture could be convinced to use regenerative farming, there would be less of a possibility of food shortages – maybe none. Watch the film “Kiss the Ground” on Netflix – very educational. The bottom line is, “Regenerative agriculture can be applied anywhere in the world and reverse the effects of desertification through no-till systems, crop diversity, planned livestock grazing and biosequestration — the process of capturing and storing carbon in plants, microbes and other organisms.”

  • Uh, yeah. My “black helos are coming for your guns” friend said in Clinton’s first term that bread would be $20 per loaf in 10 years due inflation and “Dombocrap” policies. I paid $.88 last weekend for wheat bread.

  • What immediately made me draw a legitimacy foul with the exercise above? One named participant in particular…
    The Center For American Progress. John Podesta ran it covertly and under the radar for years. One of their proponents? A real D- bag by the name of John Holdren. He was the one that coined the modern phrase “worthless eaters” and held a blatant distain for the common man, his value to society, and was a zealous engineer of new metrics that were needed to begin WEEDING OUT said worthless eaters from society…. Essentially deciding WHICH people were worth an investment in resources and deserved to continue living, and those who did not…
    So when i see inclusion of the CAP organization on something as vital as food distribution and availability, i would conclude that the entire exercise had a more nefarious purpose than the one publicly stated..

  • I am moving my gardening to more in doors. The drought and deadly high UV killed my garden this year. Not to mention starving wildlife. The items in the greenhouse held on, but not great. But since we got a big rain and cooler weather (meaning highs in the 90’s and not the 100’s) everything is coming back. Growing as much as you can is the only way to survive. I am thinking of amaranth for feeding poultry, cooked cereal and making bread. You can grow and harvest two or three times with amaranth by replanting. A couple of hanging baskets with a sweet potato in it. This turns into greens for a salad also good for poultry. I will be starting a worm compost system to feed my poultry worms. I need more rosemary. Rosemary is good for those of us who need calcium, but aren’t milk drinkers. I make a tea out of it. Instead of garden beds, except for onions, leek and garlic, I am going to look at 30 gallon barrels for plants. Uses less water & no weeds. Also keeps it up from most critters. However, it is one barrel per plant. Since it is only my husband and I then we won’t need as many plants unless it is also for my poultry. To survive I need to rethink my garden and food sources.

    • Mette- I used the 50 gallon barrel method for raised beds when I lived in a place that had no topsoil. You can cut the 50 gallon drums in half lengthwise, put holes in the bottom and fill with soil. You can grow quite a few greens/potatoes, etc in each half. Worked pretty good

    • My first year attempt at raised bed planting was, eh, partially successful – the hugelkultur potato patch turned out much better. I’ve been working labor with a neighbor cattle man to get a handle on the beef issue, but this year has been a break-even situation at best for those guys. Don’t know if they’ll continue, but the burgers and steaks are awesome!

    • Look into the Kratky method for a “poor man’s” hydroponics. Lots of info on YouTube.
      Might want to try shade cloth for some plants, and season extension methods, to avoid the worst of the hot weather.
      Have you considered meal worms for your chickens? Easy to raise, again lots of info on YouTube.

  • I’ve been gardening for years now with a combination of raised bed planters and the Ruth Stout method of growing root vegetables. And while the squirrels got most of my corn crop and hammered the potatoes pretty good (you can see the bite marks on over 20 pounds of them). I have already harvested 95 pounds of potatoes with about 5 or 10 pounds that are still to come. The carrots and lettuce were OK.

    My advice for anyone starting out is potatoes. You just have to remember that if the potatoes you eat don’t sprout you can’t use them as seed potatoes (most potatoes are sprayed or irradiated so as not to sprout). Organic potatoes should be OK.

    Have fun and start planning for next season.

  • In a simulation it is easy to be cooperative . . . the problems presented are fictional. Pencil whip something and problem solved.
    Reading the news over the past year or so, things do not seem quite so cooperative.
    More than a few countries have halted or are limiting their exports of grains (e.g. Hungry, Turkey, India).
    Then there are those who due to adverse weather conditions cannot export something that is not there. China and India’s rice crops are getting hit by prolonged drought. Pakistan on the other hand loss crops to severe flooding.
    In the US, CA rice production is expected going to be well below traditional levels with 300,000 acres not harvested out of 550,000 acres planted.

    Been reading about ranchers and cattle men sending record numbers of livestock to slaughter as with the drought in the West and Southwest they either do not have the pasture to raise the livestock, the water to water them, or cannot afford feed. In the short term, lower prices (maybe not so much in the current inflationary environment). In the long term, much, much higher prices. They can try to put a meat tax on meat, but does not do much good if there is either none to be had in the first place or no one can afford it anyways.
    American’s are now using “buy now, pay later!” credit/services for groceries! That is right, for groceries!
    Food banks are reporting more demand, longer lines then even during the height of COVID. With some having to close, due to lack of supply, staffing shortages, or logistics (high fuel prices).
    Can you imagine what next year will look like?

    Some companies are beginning layoffs as the non-recession that really is a recession or is expected to be a real recession coming soon, will add to those food bank lines.

    More mouths to feed, less food to go around.
    The Arab Spring was insight to what that looks like.
    Now imagine it on not only a global scale, but even in some parts of the US.

      • ~Jim,
        Read an article about a humanist who gives talks to tech elite.
        He got an invitation (and payment) to speak to some “ultra-wealthy stakeholders” out in the desert.
        Turns out, these elite multi-millioniares and one or two were billionaires, wanted to know how to keep their security loyal to them in a post-SHTF world, in their under ground bunkers.
        Shock collars were mentioned.
        What this guy said was they needed to be building/networking positive relationships now, not using carrot/stick like control.
        He also visited with a guy who had a prototype of a semi-organic farm, with emphasis on a “group.”
        Here is the linky:

  • Looking for a link or copy or document from Cargill in 2015 that shows the original press release so I can show others all of this data. Anybody?

  • Seems everything is a party to simulations. Everything seems somewhat scripted. Maybe we are in the Matrix. Just not sure what kind of matrix.

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