By the author of Household Preparedness Training: Domestic Protocols For Crises And Emergencies
Now!
The writing’s on the wall
It won’t go away
It’s an omen
You just run on automationOmen –The Prodigy
I’ve been addressing the matter of crime in one way or another since I started contributing for The O.P. years ago. It may seem that I have a fixation with the topic, but it’s just the mindset that comes from living in the biggest city of one of the most violent countries in the world.
Crime tends to rise sharply during periods of economic and social decline such as the western world is going through. Though not a full scale SHTF, in its various forms it can be a serious threat to the standard of living and the quality of life of communities and populations. It’s also a threat to corporations, businesses and institutions of nations.
I’m not an expert on the matter. However, besides contending with criminality and social violence in one way or another almost on a daily basis, I’m constantly researching and hanging out with LEOs and other professionals working in the field of public safety. I do that for personal interest, to improve mine and my family’s situation, and also to share my learnings so others can prepare, too.
The cycle of crime
Crime and other forms of social violence are the first visible signs of economical and social decadence.
People don’t behave out of innate goodness, but because there’s a system in place enforcing the rules. Whenever this system becomes dysfunctional (Thirdworldization), the government and its institutions become unable to uphold the law as efficiently.
Add to that changes in culture and the zeitgeist, with Western societies and institutions going “soft on crime” – as paradoxical as that may seem, it’s real – and you have people already in distress from the economy going kaput starting to misbehave and act badly in greater numbers.
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This happens in cycles, as every social dynamic. Crime rates in the United States have been declining since the early 1990s, after peaking in the 1970s and early 1990s. Violent crime rates fell 49% between 1993 and 2022, and property crime rates fell 59% over the same period.
However, there have been some notable increases in certain types of crime in recent years. In 2022, the number of thefts in the EU increased 17.9% compared to 2021. The number of robberies also increased 9.7% in 2022, after a sharp decline in 2020 and 2021 (which was probably caused by the pandemic and the measures to contain it).
This time I’ll address the issue of organized crime which has been growing and spreading all over the world.
The 2023 Global Organized Crime Index reports that organized crime is continuing to rise globally, with 83% of the world’s population living in conditions of high criminality. Even though I couldn’t find fresh data on this, it’s fair to assume more recent reports should reveal an even worse scenario.
Organized crime is defined as a “highly structured, centralized, or transnational networks of individuals that engage in illegal activities primarily for financial gain”.
It operates through mafias, cartels, factions, gangs, syndicates – the names may vary but these groups are involved in the same activities: drug, firearms and human trafficking; weapons and migrant smuggling; illegal gambling, prostitution, cargo theft, carjacking and hijacking; extortion, money laundering, counterfeiting; land-grabbing and natural resources exploitation; cyber crime and many other high-profile, high-profit illicit pursuits.
Being transnational means they operate worldwide, and for the last couple of decades, these organizations have gone into Globalization mode, crossing borders and oceans and joining forces beyond their grounds to create large multinational criminal networks.
Brazilian factions, Mexican cartels, European, Russian, Japanese, and Chinese mafias. These and other organizations have grown bigger, more powerful, and more sophisticated. They need to continually expand and seek legitimacy to survive and prosper.
A threat to social peace and institutional stability
As it grows and expands, organized crime infiltrate institutions to defend its members and interests and lobby their agendas. As they become more powerful and sophisticated they tend to replace (partially) old-school violent methods (‘plata o plomo’) for “softer”, “business-like”, long-term strategies to gather influence and power.
Thus, criminal organizations start seeking ways to participate in politics, the judiciary, police and even military forces. They still bribe, co-opt and threat to grow their ranks and get things their way, but they’ve also started investing in forming attorneys, lawyers, LEAs, and electing politicians and civil representatives. I won’t even mention the NGOs.
The level of contamination will vary among locations but it’s widespread. That’s why organized crime is dangerous to sovereign nations and their populations: the power and influence of DAs, justices and legislators “formed” by crime acting from within the system is a serious threat to institutions, businesses, communities and individuals.
Organized crime exists everywhere, at all times
It may be low-profile or invisible, but rest assured it’s there and growing, even when seemingly “inactive” or “under control.” Crime is, in essence, a business, and there’s no vacuum in business (or any human endeavor).
That’s even more true for organized crime. It’s a high-risk activity; however, the figures involved and profit margins can be huge, which works as incentive for some people and business to go illegal.
Organized crime grows in the underground, like a cancer inside the body of society. If left unchecked, it spreads and sets foot in politics, business, commerce, institutions, organizations and other areas by way of the methods mentioned above.
It’s an illegitimate business that seeks ways to become legitimate, in part or entirely, so as to escape scrutiny and enforcement. Expanding into “legit” enterprises and sectors of the economy (construction, real estate, food and entertainment, etc.) is a way to launder dirty money, too.
The main threats of organized crime for the common folk
There isn’t much individuals can do about organized crime, but being aware of the issue is still important because even though the ordinary individual may not be the main target of mafias, factions and cartels, there are ways these can impact our lives:
First is immediacy and proximity: Crime is not the politicians screwing things at the top, promises of war on a distant continent, or the elites and a bunch of WEF goons fear-mongering about climate apocalypse in a ski resort. It’s real, happens close to us, and won’t go away. In fact, it will get worse before it starts trending down again.
I use the term ‘trend’ on purpose. News can be misleading, and statistics lag behind reality. Trends reveal shifts in social behavior and provide a glimpse into the future. By identifying and understanding them we can anticipate movements that may impact us directly and prepare accordingly.
Organized crime brings a constellation of “regular” crimes on its orbit: That’s a more direct threat to the safety of the population. Though criminal organizations tend to pursue high-profile activities, these inevitably intersect and move in tandem with “regular” everyday crime.
In short, lower-level criminals commit “street” crimes to enter a gang, cartel or faction. Or they may have a debt to pay, from association or for protection (of themselves and their families when they’re imprisoned; from dealings and other things, and so on).
All that criminal activity impacts the regional or even the national economy, imposing extra costs to businesses and corporations: losses from heists and robberies, private security, increased insurance, and more. That cost is transferred to products and services. There may also be an impact on tourism if things get really rough.
Collateral damage: If a faction or cartel dominates an area it’ll do its business and impose some order and discipline within its region mostly unchallenged. That usually means a more peaceful existence for the population, though regular crime may still be high and battles with police and other forces violent and deadly.
Things can get violent and spill over when large criminal organizations split and/or start fighting each other. That’s the case of Rio de Janeiro and some regions of Mexico, to name a few where cartels, factions and mafias battle for “market share” and territory. It can reach out-and-out war, with brutal attacks and retaliations.
As mentioned, there are also violent conflicts with the police forces, sometimes resulting in high body counts and involving innocents. Talking about that, the rise in police brutality is another side effect of violent crime: in order to deal with a well-armed, deadly, and ruthless enemy, the police also gets more violent and lethal.
Some countries are tackling organized crime more effectively than others.
The anti-crime campaign in El Salvador led by President Nayib Bukele and executed by his Minister of Justice and Security, Héctor Gustavo Villatoro Funes, became an example when it dismantled violent gangs and reduced homicides to near zero, resulting in the incarceration of over 85,000 suspected criminals.
Trump’s open campaign against the cartels in 2025 marked a dramatic escalation in U.S. counter-narcotics policy, shifting from a law-enforcement model to a formalized military and intelligence-led “armed conflict”.
On June 5th the U.S. State Department declared Brazil’s two largest criminal factions “global terrorist organizations”. The measure follows Trump’s earlier designation of several criminal groups from Mexico and other countries as terrorist organizations, adding the Capital First Command (PCC) and Red Command (CV) to the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs), along other cartels and organizations like the FARC, CJNG and Sinaloa, Tren de Aragua, Herzbolah among others.
That allows the U.S. and other nations to pursue, imprison, extradite, and prosecute members, associates, and providers of these organizations, seize assets, and even direct on-the-ground action.
Cases like El Salvador and the U.S. (among a few others) show the actual effectiveness of different perspectives on organized crime and ways to combat it. But it also evidences the lack of a multinational, unified, concerted, coordinated effort to put an break on the growth and expansion of major organized crime groups and networks.
There’s also a political reason.
The state is vastly powerful; any government has more resources, a much larger capacity to mobilize civil society, the military, and other institutions for longer than any criminal organization. So why don’t they all join forces and fight crime with iron fist? Why don’t they all do like El Salvador?
There are many reasons, from incompetence to lack of motivation, from bureaucracy to corruption, not to mention practical obstacles. There are also political reasons.
The combat against trained, well armed and organized armies entrenched in civil society can be bloody and dirty. An open, all-out war against crime involves Civil Casualties (known as CIVCAS), which are inevitable in these cases. That doesn’t go down well in democracies and has a high political cost.
The matter of civil and constitutional rights can be more or less contentious depending on where we’re talking about, but is still sensitive in most instances – not to mention the potential for second-order (i.e., unwanted) developments, like the rise of populist leaders and other radicalisms.
You cannot make an omelet without breaking some eggs.
Following the rules and using ordinary crime strategies and initiatives to combat organized crime is like fighting the Hydra: you cut one head, and two grow in its place. It’s fighting a losing battle, or as we say here “drying ice”.
Bukele’s plan began with intelligence gathering but required a strict state of exception and coordinated, massive police efforts to tackle the violent gangs swiftly and topple the corrupt network that supported it from within the system at the same time.
He succeeded in his plan by acting swiftly and decidedly, leaving little room for reaction and the results came quickly enough to gather the support of the population, and before an opposition could be formed. And even with the numbers to support its success Bukele still faces opposition and criticism, mostly from abroad.
Conclusion
It would take a few (large) books to cover this topic in full, and it’d still come short and probably be dated, too. So I’ll keep this short: for those wanting more, I’ll point once again to Max Remington’s Substack, specifically his recent piece Democracy and Crime, which contains great insights and takes on the subject.
I’d be remiss not to suggest the superb video-documentary on El Salvador’s crime fight produced by independent media outlet Brazil Paralelo named El Salvador: The Day Fear Changed Sides (LINK HERE – you may activate translation to watch it in English). I promise it’ll blow your mind.
A short post-script note:
A few months ago, I suffered a major setback in my writing thanks to a mistake of my own which caused me to lose a lot of work in progress – a dozen or so articles, the latest revisions of my published ebooks (and the manuscript of my upcoming one), plus a host of drafts and notes. Took me a while to get back on track (sort of), some of the lost stuff is gone for good and will require a complete re-writing, but I’m still here and committed to bring my best to T.O.P. readers. Stay prepared and enjoy life!
About Fabian
Fabian Ommar is a 50-year-old middle-class worker living in São Paulo, Brazil. Far from being the super-tactical or highly trained military survivor type, he is the average joe who since his youth has been involved with self-reliance and outdoor activities and the practical side of balancing life between a big city and rural/wilderness settings. Since the 2008 world economic crisis, he has been training and helping others in his area to become better prepared for the “constant, slow-burning SHTF” of living in a 3rd world country.
Fabian’s ebook, Street Survivalism: A Practical Training Guide To Life In The City , is a practical training method for common city dwellers based on the lifestyle of the homeless (real-life survivors) to be more psychologically, mentally, and physically prepared to deal with the harsh reality of the streets during normal or difficult times. He’s also the author of The Ultimate Survival Gear Handbook.
You can follow Fabian on Instagram @stoicsurvivor
